Early May Update: Technicals
Siacoin has been constantly dropping in the last 12-16 months, with the most recent break through its support line at 63 sats. It is deep in the oversold zone on the RSI indicator on daily SCBTC pair and volume has dried out. There is no firm support zone below the current levels and it is a big question mark where does SC reverse and starts its uptrend.
If we zoom out a bit we can see a clear descending channel SIA is clamped in. It is currently touching the upper line of the channel and we there is no significant fundamentals to ignite a pump, SC is probably heading down to the bottom line of the channel, around 41 sats.
Early May Update: Fundamentals
- The first commercial cloud service using Sia as its storage layer is live since beginning April! It’s a subscription service that was previously reported here. You can subscribe to the service at https://Sia-cloud.tech/.The service is initially in French, but will be shortly translated into English as they continue their global roll-out.
- The team is still very active while also keeping a clean reporting to community as a high priority.
- According to the siastats.info – storage on Sia network is steadily growing, from 186 used TB in the beginning of April to 219 TB in the beginning of May, a solid jump of 35 TB in 30 days.
Below is our long-term forecast where we cover general market movements and sentiment shifts before delving deeper into the specific predictions for SC.
Sia Coin Intro
Sia is one of the players in the decentralized storage space. The cloud storage industry is massive and companies like Sia are hoping to put a dent in the dominance of other popular storage platforms such as Dropbox, Amazon S3, and Google Drive.
We have listed SIA as one of the best cryptocurrencies to invest in 2019.
But what sets Sia apart is that it is a decentralized, encrypted, peer to peer cloud storage platform. It is encrypted, multiplied, chopped into little bits, and then all those little bits are sent around to a bunch of different hosts. When you want access to your file (think of it as being in a T-1000 type state), the appropriate bits are recompiled and you get your file.
Sia has reduced overhead dramatically by building the framework and outsourcing the storage to anyone with an internet connection and a hard drive. That’s why it can charge a much lower fee. They multiply the bits in case a node holding a piece of your file happens to be offline.
Unlike most new coins, the Sia team chose not to hold an ICO. Instead, Sia began life when its genesis block was mined. This is very unusual in the cryptocurrency world. However, so far this has seemed to work out for Sia. Thanks to prominent investors such as Fenbushi Capital, Raptor Group, Procyon Ventures, along with angel investors like Xiaolai Li, the Sia team managed to raise over $1.25 million in funding without an ICO.
The idea of Sia was conceived at the HackMIT 2013 Hackathon, and was officially launched in June of 2015. It is now backed by Nebulous Inc, whose self-proclaimed mantra is: ‘Re-decentralizing the Internet’.
How to evaluate fundamentals of a crypto project
We should consider crypto valuations like educated gambling, a ‘prediction market’ where we are betting on the odds of project and token success. There are some catalysts of success we can identify:
- Project success drivers (user traction, strong financial bottomline, good treasury management, network effects/synergies between users and token investors)
Real user traction is the most important driver of success, that is what most of holders call “adoption”. If people start using certain crypto project because they find it useful and it makes their life easier, that is a guarantee of success. So far, almost no crypto project can claim to have done so.
Strong financial warchest that will enable teams behind the project to develop their visions, incentivize other developers to join them and start using their product is also a crucial aspect of any project. Tied into it is treasury management – especially for the project that had big ICO proceeds. Temptation to squander all those millions into “conferences and events” (read hard-core partying on yachts and luxury hotels) was massive, especially if we consider that majority of token projects founders were no-names and ordinary employees that worked for a paycheck before the ICO fairy-tale happened to them.
Another adoption indicator – network effects, where every additional user of a good or service adds to the value of that product to others. When a network effect is present, the value of a product or service increases according to the number of others using it.
If you can objectively notice that your favorite token project has some of these traits happening for it, be happy – you might have found a winner.
- Token success drivers (favourable demand-supply dynamics, programmable incentives on token, aligned incentives with management team and consensus on token as common unit of value creation).
Token success is completely dependent on tokenomics. As defined by infloat.co, tokenomics involves the incentivization of certain stakeholders to ensure particular behavior.
So, tokenomics is essentially an incentive structure designed to ensure that a token has a purpose and utility within its native network. It is the study of how coins/tokens work within the broader ecosystem that can be considered as a sovereign micro-economy. This includes such things like token distribution as well as how they can be used to incentivize positive behaviour in the network.
For example, bitcoin is designed to ensure that bitcoin miners have a reason to mine new bitcoin. Miners validate bitcoin transactions and receive (or create) newly minted bitcoin in the process.
On the other hand, individuals, businesses and other bitcoin users pay a transaction fee for miners to include their transaction in the next block. This ensures that even when all bitcoin have been minted (to the tune of 21 million, which should happen in around 2140), bitcoin miners are still incentivized to keep ‘mining’ (i.e. validating transactions).
To paraphrase all of the above in the simplest terms: if you, after weeks of research and reading, can’t figure out why the project needs to have a token, it probably doesn’t.
So why does the token exist then?
– To make the project founders rich.
But there are some people on Twitter, Reddit, Telegram claiming otherwise.
-Yes, they are either: paid to do so by those same founders, they are desperate and delusional bad holders or they are just stroking their own ego with newly learned fancy economic terms and jargon.
Needless to say – stay clear of such projects.
Sia coin Price Prediction for 2019 – Our Forecast
SC, as the rest of the market, is tightly coupled and dependent on bitcoin’s price action. If bitcoin embarks on another bull run, SC can hope for one as well. Since that is very unlikely, don’t expect much to change for SC price-wise in this year. So 2019 will be a year of boring sideways action with minor bitcoin ignited jumps and slumps.
The main currency in cryptocurrency markets is Bitcoin and given this, altcoins tend to fuel Bitcoin runs and Bitcoin tends to do the same in return. Given this relationship, Bitcoin price movements (or lack thereof) tend to effect altcoin prices.
When Bitcoin goes up swiftly, it will likely:
- Suppress or depress altcoins as money flows into Bitcoin;
- Or, take altcoins along for the ride
In cases when Bitcoin plunges, it will likely:
- Depress altcoins as money flows into fiat;
- Or, cause altcoins to boom as money flows into them, but this is rarely the case.
When Bitcoin moves sideways, it will likely:
- Cause altcoins to mimic that as traders wait for a clear sign on the direction of the market;
- Or, cause altcoins to flourish as traders look for returns in altcoins and try to get favorable trades in terms of BTC pairs.
RTo summarize, Bitcoin is the focal point of the crypto market in many ways, and with BTC trading pairs on every exchange, the gravity of Bitcoin is hard to evade.
The majority of projects will fail — some startups are created just to gather funds and disappear, some would not handle the competition, but most are just ideas that look good on paper, but in reality, are useless for the market.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum said:
“There are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there are a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well”
As a result, over 95% of successful ICOs and cryptocurrency projects will fail and their investors will lose money. The other 5% of projects will become the new Apple, Google or Alibaba in the cryptoindustry. Will SC be among those 5%? Hard to tell but probability for that is higher than with most other coins primarily for 2 reasons: solid use case and legit team behind the project.
All of this summed up means one thing: SC might live through couple of orchestrated and, for a regular trader, completely unpredictable pumps but the majority of time will be murky sideways trading with small volume and no significant interest from the market.
Price will heavily depend on what BTC will do and since many analysts think BTC will not be making big moves in this year, it is hard to expect SC will do them either. The price will probably stagnate and record slow-moving depreciation or appreciation depending on the team activity, potential technological breakthrough or high-level partnership.
Market prediction for Siacoin price
Siacoin is a unicorn of the crypto space because of its leading role in a plausible use case that is decentralized storage. As it is gaining popularity, more people have started talking about it. Let’s check what are the market experts or crypto editorials saying.
- Trading Beasts
A crypto forecast website called trading beasts predicted that by the end of 2019, SC might reach around $0.02, which can even exceed as much as $0.03.
- Crypto Ground
Here comes a conservative prediction of cryptoground, where they say that by 2019 end, SC might reach $0.0158, and in five years siacoin might reach $0.0528.
CoinFan is a website that offers price forecasts for almost every cryptocurrency imaginable. By their own “custom forecast algorithm”, they predict that Siacoin might reach $0.0538 by 2019 end, and might reach $0.19 by 2020 end.
- Wallet Investor
Wallet Investor is known for their pragmatic cryptocurrency prediction. They believe that SC might reach $0.0426 by 2019 end on an everage, where the maximum rate might be as high as $0.050030.
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