Article structure notification: the article is divided in three sections. First section is focused on short-term, technical and speculative analysis of the project – this is regularly updated part of the article. Second section is focused on general market and sentiment analysis and third section is focused on the long-term, fundamental analysis and future prediction of the project – this is occasionally updated part of the article.
Mid May Update: Technicals
RVN is in a trendless ranging (minor trend) hovering around a confluence point of Fib50 and MA50 on the 4 hour chart. One of our interpretations is that RVN just did a wave 2 of Elliot cycles and we are waiting for some pressure relief by bitcoin in the form of sideways action, so altcoins can rally. In that case, RVN should head up in a wave 3 all the way to 855 (Fib100) or 1035 sats (Fib 1.618).
Breakout point is the local high of 855 sats, if that gets smashed, target is 1035 sats.
Breakdown point is local bottom at 676 sats, if that is not defended RVN would dip to the recent low of 562 sats.
Intermediate trend is still bearish as RVN needs to break the falling trendline at 856 sats and close above it to enter a bull run on the intermediate timeframe. EMA20 and MA50 are also aligned in a descending order which is considered bearish.
Major trend is also bearish with a symmetric triangle formation – which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. This poses a danger that RVN could drop back to the lows of 300 sats. However, symmetric triangle sometimes breaks in the other direction as well, so it is not all that grim for long-term RVN future.
One thing to bear in mind is the turbulent and erratic nature of bitcoin – a sudden thrust up or slide down is always on the cards which would invalidate this and all other analysis and predictions. In such cases, market is shaken up with most traders exiting altcoins and entering bitcoin positions or seeking shelter in stablecoins, especially in the initial phases of bitcoin pumps and dumps. So it is always a good idea to keep a close eye on bitcoin’s behaviour before opening a long or a short on any other coin in the market.
Should this happen, stop by again to check out our updated charts and thoughts.
Trading volume is okayish – reported volume in the last 24hrs is $10m and “Real 10” (trading volume on the exchanges that provably prevent wash trading) volume is of course lower but not by much and it amounts to $5m. This means that RVN’s liquidity is only slightly inflated and its trading volume is overstated by 2x which is comparatively great ratio.
Moreover, RVN has an averagely strong buy support, according to coinmarketbook.cc. Buy support is measuring sum of buy orders at 10% distance from the highest bid price. This way we can eliminate fake buy walls and whale manipulation and see the real interest of the market in a certain coin. RVN currently has a $657k of buy orders measured with this method, which sets RVN buy support/market cap ratio at 0.37%, a wide-market average. Bitcoin and Ethereum have a 0.27% and 0.28% ratios, respectively. This novel metric indicates there are a lot of manipulations, inflated liquidity and fake orders on all crypto trading pairs, including RVN pairs.
You can see that that RVN trading volume has died down proportionally with the hype around it on Twitter and Telegram. Data is provided by DataLight.me. You can see that all three metrics had big spikes on two occasions in March. First spike was related to Vertbase listing of RVN and the second one – that correlated with a price hike of almost 50%.
The second spike was unrelated to any fundamental price drivers and was purely speculative price jump that stirred the social media and interest in RVN.
Mid May Update: Fundamentals
Below are some of the most important news around the project in the last 30 days.
- Ravencoin Android wallet with asset support is in testing.
- Ravencoin iOS wallet gets asset sweep support.
- Bitrue Exchange adds three RVN trading pairs.
- Vertbase adds the ability to buy RVN with GBP and EUR on May 1st.
- Ravenland adds IPFS Mirror service for Ravencoin
- CoinAll, one of the newer and smaller cryptocurrency exchanges listed Ravencoin (RVN) with 10 BTC giveaway.
- Small Korean exchange GAZUA has added RVN as base currency to their fiat trade: RVNKRW.
- Korean Ravencoin community is growing fast which is a good sign for speculators as Asian crypto investors/traders/speculators are known for their habit of hard pumping coins they like. If you are interested in it, korean community just launched this forum for RVN: https://www.blockchainhub.kr/bbs/group.php?gr_id=raven
Below is our long-term forecast where we cover general market movements and sentiment shifts before delving deeper into the specific predictions for RVN.
Ravencoin, a fork of Bitcoin, is a relatively young token; it’s only since January 3, 2018 that it’s been hovering among the crypto currencies. But in the last months, the coin has attracted attention thanks to its price meteoric rise. The name is the fictitious one, is borrowed from the fictional world of Game of Thrones.
The official medium post for Ravencoin describes it as “a digital peer-to-peer network for the facilitation of asset transfers”.
It is essentially an open source fork of the Bitcoin code with faster block reward times and is aimed at censorship resistance, transparency and privacy.
Ravencoin was created from the Bitcoin codebase but utilizes the X16R mining algorithm. The ASIC-resistant coin utilizes 16 different mining algorithms which automatically further increases the security of the network.
Ravencoin blockchain is designed to serve specific purposes. On the one hand, it should help to determine ownership of assets in a flawless manner. On the other hand, Ravencoin, similar to Bitcoin, wants to make direct payments possible. As the open source project on the homepage emphasizes, it is completely decentralized: Neither master nodes nor especially nor ICO are behind the project.
Ravencoin (RVN) has all the properties of a good crypto project: no ICO, no founders holding majority of coins, it is a PoW project where anyone can mine it with their CPU thanks to the ASIC resistant design of the mining algorithm, it is backed by couple of reputable names of the crypto space like Bruce Fenton and Tron Black, it pays homage to Bitcoin and is very respectful of the work of the core developers from which it was forked which in turn secures them the help from couple of those Bitcoin developers etc.
Ravencoin Roadmap 2019
Dividends/Rewards (Aim: Q1 2019)
Rewards, also sometimes called dividends, provides a way to send tokenized assets or RVN to token holders by percentage of tokens held. Dividend support can be done without modifying the protocol. Rewards do not require a consensus protocol change, and the rpc calls exist to be able do rewards already. These capabilities just make it native and easy-to-use from the client.
- Reward shareholders with profits (denominated in RVN)
- Reward membership holders
- Reward those that contributed the most to a shared project and earned special tokens
Phase 5 – Messaging (Aim: Q1 2019)
A message is “broadcast” if an owner token or channel token is sent in a transaction to the same address with the addition of an IPFS hash and an optional expiration date. The message isn’t really broadcast in the sense of being transmitted to nodes, but rather each node will independently detect the special transaction type and display the message. Message display is subject to some heuristic anti-spam rules.
IPFS (Interplanetary File System) is used by Ravencoin for issuance meta-data, messaging, and transaction meta-data. Ravencoin must interact with IPFS in order to show messages because the message content is stored on IPFS. IPFS access should be on by default, but should be able to be turned off with a flag. A two phase approach will allow Ravencoin to use IPFS natively, but it will also use existing IPFS proxies.
- Messaging is decribed in the KAAAWWW! protocol.
- The Roadmap for messaging is here on Github
- The Roadmap for spam prevention is here on Github
- The Roadmap for IPFS integration is here on Github
- Send information about your token.
- Send alerts relevant to your project.
- Send information about a shareholder vote.
- Use Raven messaging for other systems.
General Market Movements and Sentiment Shift
The downfall of altcoins that were mainstream media darlings at the start of the year, can be attributed, in part, to new, naive investors getting scared off once the bear market kicked in with a vengeance. Every resurgence of bitcoin in recent period, was met with the, for the most part, weakened ability of altcoins to rally with it.
Reason for that can be novice investors learning from their mistakes, while smart money that was previously watching from the sidelines has begun to enter into bitcoin.
These entities weren’t about to buy BTC when it was trading at an all-time high, but they’ll take a look now, having missed the boat the first time around. None of them, it seems, are interested in altcoins however, despite the fact that many are trading at a 5x discount. Institutional investors may be cautious, but they’re not foolish.
Some altcoins will continue to have some speculative value for the foreseeable future. But just like the now infamous tulips, the hysteria will eventually subside. We are already witnessing the first phases of that slide and even though most of the bag holders react emotionally to articles that criticize their coins, these observations are not opinionated but based on the developments on the market. You better start emotionally detaching yourself from your “great sounding” coin because if goes nowhere, ideas are worthless without execution and real users that see value in the project.
2018 was a very interesting year overall for the broader DLT community, “ICO projects” came and burst in a spectacular, fireworks similar fashion.
While the mass death of barely-alive-in-the-first-place projects causes some uncertainty and skepticism among the newcomers, it is something veterans and pioneers of this space have been longing for.
In order for DLT to become established, we need quality over quantity, we need convergence on standards and consolidation of communities to bring to life what we’ve been working on for years. With less noise, 2019 will act as a Darwinian selection mechanism, much like that of which the IT companies post-dotCom Bubble experienced.
This is a good thing and absolutely necessary for the real maturation of the space.
How to evaluate fundamentals of a crypto project
We should consider crypto valuations like educated gambling, a ‘prediction market’ where we are betting on the odds of project and token success. There are some catalysts of success we can identify:
Real user traction is the most important driver of success, that is what most of holders call “adoption”. If people start using certain crypto project because they find it useful and it makes their life easier, that is a guarantee of success. So far, almost no crypto project can claim to have done so.
Strong financial warchest that will enable teams behind the project to develop their visions and incentivize other developers to join them and start using their product is also a crucial aspect of any project. Tied into it is treasury management – especially for the projects that had big ICO proceeds. Temptation to squander all those millions into “conferences and events” (read hard-core partying on yachts and luxury hotels) was massive, especially if we consider that majority of token projects founders were no-names and ordinary employees that worked for a paycheck before the ICO fairy-tale happened to them.
Another adoption indicator – network effects, where every additional user of a good or service adds to the value of that product to others. When a network effect is present, the value of a product or service increases according to the number of others using it.
If you can objectively notice that your favorite token project has some of these traits happening for it, be happy – you might have found a winner.
Token success is completely dependent on tokenomics. As defined by infloat.co, tokenomics involves the incentivization of certain stakeholders to ensure particular behavior.
So, tokenomics is essentially an incentive structure designed to ensure that a token has a purpose and utility within its native network. It is the study of how coins/tokens work within the broader ecosystem that can be considered as a sovereign micro-economy. This includes such things like token distribution as well as how they can be used to incentivize positive behaviour in the network.
For example, bitcoin is designed to ensure that bitcoin miners have a reason to mine new bitcoin. Miners validate bitcoin transactions and receive (or create) newly minted bitcoin in the process.
On the other hand, individuals, businesses and other bitcoin users pay a transaction fee for miners to include their transaction in the next block. This ensures that even when all bitcoin have been minted (to the tune of 21 million, which should happen in around 2140), bitcoin miners are still incentivized to keep ‘mining’ (i.e. validating transactions).
To paraphrase all of the above in the simplest terms: if you, after weeks of research and reading, can’t figure out why the project needs to have a token, it probably doesn’t.
So why does the token exist then?
– To make the project founders rich.
But there are some people on Twitter, Reddit, Telegram claiming otherwise.
-Yes, they are either: paid to do so by those same founders, they are desperate and delusional bag holders or they are just stroking their own ego with newly learned fancy economic terms and jargon.
Needless to say – stay clear of such projects.
Our Ravencoin Token Price Prediction for 2019
RVN , as the rest of the market, is tied at the hip of bitcoin’s price action. If bitcoin embarks on another bull run, Ravencoin can hope for one as well. Since that is very unlikely, don’t expect much to change for RVN price-wise in this year. So 2019 will be a year of boring sideways action with minor bitcoin ignited jumps and slumps.
The main currency in cryptocurrency markets is Bitcoin and given this, altcoins tend to fuel Bitcoin runs and Bitcoin tends to do the same in return. Given this relationship, Bitcoin price movements (or lack thereof) tend to effect altcoin prices.
When Bitcoin goes up swiftly, it will likely:
- Suppress or depress altcoins as money flows into Bitcoin;
- Or, take altcoins along for the ride
In cases when Bitcoin plunges, it will likely:
- Depress altcoins as money flows into fiat;
- Or, cause altcoins to boom as money flows into them, but this is rarely the case.
When Bitcoin moves sideways, it will likely:
- Cause altcoins to mimic that as traders wait for a clear sign on the direction of the market;
- Or, cause altcoins to flourish as traders look for returns in altcoins and try to get favorable trades in terms of BTC pairs.
To summarize, Bitcoin is the focal point of the crypto market in many ways, and with BTC trading pairs on every exchange, the gravity of Bitcoin is hard to evade.
RVN-BTC Price Correlation
The vast majority of trading that occurs in the crypto markets are between BTC and altcoin trading pairs. Since most altcoins do not pair with fiat currencies (and only a few are paired with stable coins like USTD), Bitcoin is the next best option. Therefore, when Bitcoin is stable, it forms as the ideal base currency for buying altcoins (which is why altcoins tend to do well when Bitcoin goes sideways).
Correlation is measured on a scale from -1 to 1. Values above 0 shows the degree to which altcoin is moving in the same direction as BTC prices (either up or down in tandem), and values below 0 shows the degree to which altcoin moves in the opposite direction of BTC prices (so when BTC goes down, altcoin goes up, or vice versa). Values around 0 shows that when BTC price moves, altcoins stays steady, or alternatively that when altcoin moves up or down that the BTC price is staying steady.
Based on the correlation analysis, BTC and RVN have a strong positive relationship. The correlation coefficient of their prices is 0.52, which was calculated based on the previous 100-days’ price dynamics of both currencies.
Overall, the price change of any altcoin token is explained by the dynamics of the bitcoin-influenced market. However, there are also fundamental reasons for the individual token rise and fall in price, which can be pinned down to a big tech upgrade or more often, big partnership.
The majority of projects will fail — some startups are created just to gather funds and disappear, some would not handle the competition, but most are just ideas that look good on paper, but in reality, are useless for the market.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum said:
“There are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there are a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well”
Ravencoin (RVN) Future Outlook
However, not all projects have the same chance of failing (risk), nor do they have the same potential upside (reward).
As a result of ICO teams’ incompetence and lack of integrity, fueled by basic human instinct that is greed and crypto investors’ naivety, over 95% of successful ICOs and cryptocurrency projects will fail and their investors will lose money. The other 5% of projects will become the new Apple, Google or Alibaba in the cryptoindustry. Will RVN be among those 5%?
Good probability of that happening.
Raven’s potential based on use case as a platform for assets in a market that is moving to a tokenized model which is anticipated to be a 10-40 trillion dollar market space is top 5-10 level. If it gets to that range, even with the rest of the market in doldrums, you are looking at dollars not cents. If Raven manages to capture a fraction of a percent of that market it is dollars not cents.
This is the killer app of blockchain, this will take time to develop, but if raven reaches anywhere near its potential this stage will hardly register in the all time charts.
Why will Ravencoin fail?
No matter how strong the project, there will always be doubters and those who ask is Ravencoin dead and why will it fail. Below are some of the price depressing factors you should consider before buying RVN.
Most recent bull run still keeps RVN holders in the bull delirium and they start dreaming about some unrealistic price levels, like reaching the $1 mark. The inflation of RVN is massive, 7.2 million new coins enter the circulation every day diluting the value of the existing supply. Its current available supply is 2.2 billion, so there is a lot of coins to enter the circulation before we reach 21 billion total supply.
Supply/Demand is a simple economic factor that affects the price of many things. If a cryptocurrency has a high token supply with little demand from traders and users, then the cryptocurrency’s value will drop. Conversely, if the supply of a particular cryptocurrency is limited and the demand is high, then the value of the coin will increase. Supply of RVN coins is not huge right now but keeps growing at a big rate, as already mentioned. This is a negative, downward pressure on the RVN price.
This dynamic is tied to another basic economic principle, scarcity. Scarcity refers the gap between limited – that is, scarce – resources and theoretically limitless wants. With 21 billion of tokens, RVN is anything but scarce, at least for the current level of its adoption.
Why will Ravencoin succeed?
So why will Ravencoin rise and go up in price? There are a lot of potential price catalysts, some of them are brought about below.
The upward price pressure will be exerted with the adoption as every new asset creation event burns 500 RVN, mitigating the inflation and lowering the coin supply. The more users on the RVN platform, the better for its price.
Ravencoin has a big company backing it – Overstock is one of the largest investors in the project. Also Medici Ventures is a big fund that is a public and open supporter of Ravencoin that already used RVN to make a $3.6 million security transfer over the RVN blockchain.
Another positive price factor will be also adoption-related. If a company decides to put their shares on the Raven blockchain and pay dividends to token holders they must pay them RVN. This means that once a quarter / year (however it is decided) they will need to acquire enough RVN to pay out in the form of dividends.
All of this indicates that Ravencoin has a solid team behind the project that has a really steep mountain in front of itself that needs to be conquered. Holding RVN in 2019 and beyond is a high risk but even higher reward situation. So, if your appetite for risk and investing profile mixes well with this type of asset, Raven and your portfolio would fit like a hand and glove.
All of this summed up means one thing: Ravencoin might live through couple of orchestrated and, for a regular trader, completely unpredictable pumps but the majority of time will be murky sideways trading with small volume and no significant interest from the market.
Price will heavily depend on what BTC will do and since many analysts think BTC will not be making big moves in this year, it is hard to expect Ravencoin will do them either. The price will probably stagnate and record slow-moving depreciation or appreciation depending on the team activity, potential technological breakthrough or high-level partnership.
Market prediction for Ravencoin – RVN Price 2019
With the market being completely unpredictable, forecasting the cryptocurrency price is really more of a gamble and luck rather than a data driven guesstimate.
Let’s throw a glance at the eminent publications and personalities, and their predictions regarding the Ravencoin price, which will give us another point of view to consider:
Cryptoground.com is cryptocurrecy prediction algorithm that is moderately to overly bullish on most of coins, but not on RVN token. They forecast RVN to climb up to $0.07 per token by EOY, which means a modest 1.4x increase in comparison to the current price.
Walletinvestor is a popular website that does technical analysis-based price predictions of various cryptocurrencies and traditionally has a skeptical outlook for most coins, but not for RVN. According to them, Ravencoin is expected to float around the current $0.05 by the end of the year.
Trading beasts is usually on a diametrically opposite side of Walletinvestor and sees a much more bullish future for most tokens. Their algo is not too fond of Raven and it forecasts that RVN can drop a bit to around $0.04 within a year which means it will essentially fall by 20% in value in the next year.
Another crypto prediction algorithm that is most conservative in its approach of the 4 we enumerated here – DCP usually predicts price to hover around the same level as the current state, forecasting a twofold increase or reduction for certain coins. RVN is on the bullish side of their algo that sees it reaching $0.12 per coin by December 2019.
Ravencoin Coin Future: 2020, 2023, 2025
Ravencoin Price Prediction 2020
Ravencoin has been one of the most unknown crypto projects that embarked on a surprising bull run that took majority of the market by surprise. However, after the most recent run, most crypto investors keep RVN on their radars and since the project has sound fundamentals, no controversies or past incidents, excellent use case and solid team behind it, it is very plausible to expect that RVN can reach at least 10x of its current price, meaning $0.50 per coin.
Ravencoin Price Prediction 2023
If Ravencoin survives to see 2023, which is more likely than not, the token would surely be at 10-100x of the current value which means it would be at $0.50 – $5 per token.
Ravencoin Price Prediction 2025
Again, should RVN survive to see 2025, the token would surely be at 100x+ of the current value which means it would be at $5+ per token.
Realistic RAVENCOIN Price Prediction
Predicting prices of novel, highly volatile and risky asset classes is a thankless task – best answer is no one knows. Educated guess is that realistic Ravencoin price for the foreseeable future is somewhere around its current price.
We don’t yet know which crypocurrencies will make it out of the crypto winter we’re wandering in right now. There are plenty of coins that stand a good chance of weathering the crypto storm and perhaps becoming more relevant as the market contracts and devours some of the weaker projects. However, there are even more of those projects who are already dead but no one noticed yet.
But, looking at things from this point in time and place, it’s reasonable to say that Ravencoin had its five minutes of glory that was based solid fundamentals and broader market discovering the project. It is now time for RVN to step up and continue to deliver valuable and palpable successes to justify the very high expectations investors pinned onto it.
Join Our Telegram Channel or Follow @CaptainAltcoin