In this guide, we will voice our own and market’s opinion on Polkadot future while discussing DOT price forecast for 2021 and beyond.
Please bear in mind that you should take this and any other prediction with a grain of salt since predicting anything is a thankless task, let alone predicting the future of a novel, highly volatile financial asset like Polkadot.
Now, let’s head into it.
Before we delve deep into the Iota price prediction and answer questions if Polkadot is a good investment or not, why will Polkadot succeed or fail or why will Polkadot price rise or drop, let’s quickly throw a glance at what is Polkadot and its to date history.
What is Polkadot
Polkadot is a platform that allows diverse blockchains to transfer messages, including value, in a trust-free fashion; sharing their unique features while pooling their security. In brief, Polkadot is a scalable heterogeneous multi-chain technology.
This interoperability seeks to establish a fully decentralized and private web, controlled by its users, and simplify the creation of new applications, institutions and services.
Polkadot’s native DOT token serves three clear purposes: providing network governance and operations, and creating parachains (parallel chains) by bonding.
Polkadot may be considered equivalent to a set of independent chains (e.g. a set containing Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Namecoin and Bitcoin) except with important additions: pooled security and trust-free interchain transactability.
Many of the native parachains of Polkadot will be written using a Polkadot Runtime Environment SDK (e.g. Parity Technologies’ Substrate).
How does Polkadot work?
The Polkadot network uses a sharded model where shards – called “parachains“, allow transactions to be processed in parallel instead of sequentially. Each parachain in the network has a unique state transition function (STF). Based on Polkadot’s design, as long as a chain’s logic can compile to Wasm and adheres to the Relay Chain API, then it can connect to the Polkadot network as a parachain.
Polkadot has a Relay Chain acting as the main chain of the system. Parachains construct and propose blocks to validators on the Relay Chain, where the blocks undergo rigorous availability and validity checks before being added to the finalized chain. As the Relay Chain provides the security guarantees, collators – full nodes of these parachains – don’t have any security responsibilities, and thus do not require a robust incentive system. This is how the entire network stays up to date with the many transactions that take place.
How Is the Polkadot Network Secured?
Polkadot’s mass interoperability through a set of common validators helps to secure its multiple blockchains and allows them to scale their transactions by spreading their data across many parachains.
The network uses the NPoS (nominated proof-of-stake) mechanism to select validators and nominators and maximize chain security.
This unique validity scheme enables chains to interact with each other securely under the same rules, yet remain independently governed.
Polkadot Price Prediction 2021
Many investors (traditional and crypto) will tell you that fundamentals are extremely important and should carry the most weight when you assess a project. We agree with this claim, to an extent.
Crypto is specific in a sense that fundamentals are hard to rely on. How come?
Well, most of the crypto investors are not technologically refined to understand if it is even feasible to do what the project claims to be doing. This leads to exaggerated and unsubstantiated roadmaps by many crypto project teams. These roadmaps sound terrific and people flock to invest in the project even though, with a little technical or economical knowledge, they would have seen how ridiculous some of those ideas are.
⚡️ Use case
For this reason, it is always good to check the feasibility of the use case by consulting someone more technically astute.
For example, a lot of these projects noticed the transaction speed issue with Bitcoin so they went all-in with how fast their blockchains are. But that speed came at a cost of decentralization. Essentially, they claimed to have solved a blockchain trilemma, which bugged geniuses for centuries. But some twenty-something no-names solved it in a week or so.
Not very original use case. Just another smart contracts platform that aims to be faster and more efficient than Ethereum. Making ground on ETH will be a steep hill to climb. However, Polkadot proved it can shake the Ethereum boat as its rise to prominence was rapid which lead to many Ethereum projects to extend their reach to Polkadot platform as well.
Delays have continued to weigh on Ethereum which keeps giving a striking chance to its competitors like Polkadot, Cosmos, NEO, Cardano and many others.
Main advantage of Polkadot over Ethereum and other competitors is its superior design, from the getgo.
Parity Substrate and Polkadot solve all of the problems that have prevented blockchain from achieving the full potential of the vision of what blockchain could be for the world:
network security for small chains (which comes from the genius method of using the Polkadot relay chain to fortify/defend small parachains)
guaranteed performance of each parachain (comes as a benefit of hetergenous sharding- i.e. prevents the problem of cryptokitties showing-up and causing everyone else’s dApp to run slower)
scalability (infinite- no limits to how many parachains can be created in the ecosystem)
interoperability (for BOTH crypto currency transactions AND data exchanges over the relay hub; the latter blows the potential for new use cases wide open -> search the term “extrinsic” if you want to learn more)
governance (liquid democracy is a huge step forward!)
smart contract upgradeability (if you are a developer you know that this is a massive problem for all of the Ethereum-derived chains)
Assessing the team behind the project is another point that needs to be addressed. More often than not, those people will be the only source of their claims (and doctored LinkedIn profiles). So, even though this is an important criterion, bear in mind that a cunning team of marketers can fake legitimacy.
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One huge RED FLAG about a team is tweeting, posting, blogging about the price of their token. No legitimate team does that as they have smarter things to do – like work on a multi-million dollar project of theirs. Only money grabbers run their official social media and blogs as the most blatant market manipulators (example: Justin Sun) to run the price up before they dump their mountains of coins they created out of nothing and awarded to themselves.
Such teams usually pay off low-tier crypto media publications to post “unbiased” articles and reviews of their projects in an attempt to create an illusion of a widely respected and attractive project.
Very transparent and professional. No price action shilling or commenting, focused on building.
Polkadot was founded by the Web3 Foundation, a Swiss Foundation founded to facilitate a fully functional and user-friendly decentralized web, as an open-source project.
Its founders are Dr. Gavin Wood, Robert Habermeier and Peter Czaban.
Wood, the Web3 Foundation’s president, is the most well-known of the trio thanks to his industry influence as Ethereum co-founder, Parity Technologies founder and the creator of the smart contract coding language Solidity.
Habermeier is a Thiel Fellow and accomplished blockchain and cryptography researcher and developer. Czaban is the Web3 Foundation’s Technology Director. With a wealth of experience across highly specialized fintech industries, he is currently helping to develop a new generation of distributed technology.
Community – pay special attention to this one. Size of the community is not relevant as it can easily be faked (just check Fiverr or Upwork to see how easy is to buy 100k of Twitter followers or subreddit subscribers).
What is more important is the content those community members post – does it look real? Is it only price-centered? It it allowed to exercise some critical thinking or the only posts allowed are shills and cult-like idolizing of the team (most often the team leader gets a rockstar status among the sheepish investors).
Very active subreddit with almost 20k subscribers and pretty active Telegram and Discord groups. Seems to be genuine and authentic, no bots, no low-quality posting about moons and price action.
⚡️ Exchanges and wallet support
Another good indicator of how serious is the project taken by other crypto agents. Some smaller and marginal exchanges and wallets can be paid off for listings but larger platforms like Kraken, Binance or Coinbase lend legitimacy to a project that is listed there. So, that is a great cue if the project is actually worth something among its peers.
Very good support among the popular exchanges (Binance, Bitfinex, Kraken, Kucoin etc) and wallets (Atomic Wallet, Trust Wallet, Guarda etc.).
Sometimes the project makes sense and everything sounds right except of the token role. It is just superfluous and forced into the picture (so the team can take the money and get rich). Aside of the logic behind the token, you should pay attention to its current and overall supply. Also, inflation and new coins production rate is extremely important. Distribution among the team, early investors and regular users is also of immense consequence. Check Ripple and XRP to see how hard is to have organic price growth when there is a whole slew of people who dump millions of new (unlocked) tokens into the market each week.
It is important that tokens are woven into the project with clever incentives in mind. It is all about incentives in the world of crypto – why should the buyer hold some coin, what is in it for him? Different projects use different methods to entice people to buy and hold their coin.
Polkadot currently has an allocation of 1 billion DOT tokens, following the network’s redenomination from an initial maximum supply of 10 million in August 2020. The redenomination was undertaken purely to avoid the use of small decimals and make calculation easier.
Although DOT initially had a max supply of 10 million, this was changed to allow for a somewhat alarming degree of inflation. Similarly to Band Protocol, the Polkadot network uses inflation to incentivize network participation.
That is a large overall supply with all 1 billion tokens already in the market. Additionally, the inflation rate is moderately high at 9.9% (according to Messari.io) which means that the dilution of value a Polkadot holder will suffer is pretty high. For reference, BTC has an inflation rate of 1.8% and ETH 1.87% per annum.
The token itself plays a huge role in the ecosystem and game theory around it and its value accrual through utility is solid.
DOTs are what control the relay chain. The relay chain will connect hundreds of parachains and bridges to every significant crypto asset. DeFi on Polkadot will be able to process thousands of transactions per second for every crypto asset, and will be able to connect to every liquidity pool available in crypto. See reef.finance for an example. Dots also receive value for every parachain connected (from auctions) and for every bridge (from auctions) and from every message passed between parachains (fees paid in Dot). They are equivalent of digital real estate; Dot is owning the land where a skyscraper is being built. The proof of stake gains are a minor part of what gives it value.
⚡️ Trading volume
Trading volume is another excellent barometer of the quality of the assets. This can also be faked by automatic and wash trading on small exchanges but, just filter those out and see if there is actual liquidity on the bigger platforms.
Excellent and consistent trading volume in the last 3 months with ocassional spikes and drops. It moves in the range between $2 to $8 billion per day which is impressive for a relatively new asset. The 24h trading volume hasn’t dropped below $1 billion in the whole 2021.
Now, we’re talking about the really impactful market forces.
Unfortunately, the power of social media, especially Twitter, Discord, and Telegram groups and to a smaller extent subreddits and Facebook groups, often outweighs the fundamentals of a crypto project. As a consequence, we see trash and half-dead zombie projects like Dogecoin, Electroneum, Verge, Tron (not dead but everything is faked around it, from the number of users and dapps to the unoriginal and uninspiring, incompetent leadership) and similar shitcoins rising up in the market cap rankings, sometimes even entering the top 10.
The speculative wave can lift you into the skies but can, more often, smash your portfolio into a big zilch.
Some people are good at swimming with these sharks (Twitter personas hidden behind some lame nicknames like Crypto [INSERT ANIMAL) or Crypto [INSERT VERB]) that coordinate their shilling and price pumps and dumps. However, ordinary crypto buyers have no time or skills to keep up with them and are used as a plankton – food for the bigger crypto sea creatures to feast on.
Nevertheless, social media can be a place you run into some good tips about hidden gems. When you read something that sparks your interest, don’t get overexcited and invest right away. Instead, put it on a watchlist and check all of the stuff we mentioned above.
The key thing to look for is authenticity – does the community, social media posts of crypto personas, articles about the project on crypto media look legit? Is it posted by the well respected people with a strong reputation or by no-names who shill coins left and right? Is the community aware of potential flaws of the chosen project and is it allowed to discuss them? Are there systemic complaints of sudden bans and censorship by the community moderators?
A good project is not that hard to recognize and once you see posts about it by other people – check their profiles, check their tweet/post history, see if the recommendation comes across as a genuine suggestion or an artificial shill made out of self-interest?
Polkadot enjoys a great reputation in the wide crypto circles. The team behind it is especially well-established and commands respect among the crypto users. The project garners the attention of a wide crypto base, tweets and posts about it on social media seem to be genuine and uncoordinated which means people recognize it as a legit project.
There are tons of positive tweets about the revolutionizing potential of Polkadot’s tech and a slew of crypto Twitter analysts claim to be trading and holding DOT for the long-term. All of this puts DOT as one of the hottest coins to hold in the future.
Polkadot Price Prediction – summed up
Having analyzed all of the above on Polkadot, we can say that this is a legit project with a unique chance to actually be the project that will overcome the daunting task in front of it – outcompeting Ethereum to be crowned as the king of smart contract platforms. It enjoys a good standing in the crypto circles and could be a worthy investment in the short and long-term.
Polkadot is an impressive achievement in blockchain technology and engineering. In a world of competing cross-chain protocols and difficult-to-scale networks, Polkadot offers a refreshing and community-powered framework to build a better, more decentralized ecosystem of applications that is interoperable with existing technologies.
Where and how to buy DOT
This is how you can buy Polkadot (DOT):
- Download a Polkadot Wallet (Parity Signer, Atomic Wallet, Guarda, Trust Wallet usw)
- Create your DOT-Adress
- Find an exchange that lists DOT (Binance, Kraken, Kucoin) and buy DOT
- Transfer DOT from the exchange to your wallet
If you are not happy with Binance or can’t use it for some reason, here are a couple of alternatives:
Cex.io lot of payment methods
That is how you buy Polkadot, in a nutshell.
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The native Polkadot Wallet is Polkawallet.
Measure in Satoshis
You will always want to know if the effort of trading was worth it as opposed to just hodling BTC. You should also account for the time you spent trading as that time also has value.
For example, if you spent 15 hours trading altcoins and you ended up having the same amount of Satoshis, it means you have wasted those 15 hours and would have been better off if you simply held BTC.
Since Bitcoin sits in between the Fiat and Alt Coin sandwich, you should only ever trade in BTC value.
If I invest in an altcoin at .17 cents at 10k Sats and in 6 months, I cash out at .93 cents at 10k Sats. Did I make money in that altcoin?
The answer is no. Your opportunity cost was equal to holding bitcoin since the sat values didn’t move, the price of BTC going up is what netted you your increase in fiat. Not the increase of sats on STEEM.
If, however, you cashed out of STEEM at 20k sats at .93 cents over the course of 6 months, that means you made a profit in satoshi value as well as USD value (through bitcoin).
Constructing a Investment Strategy
I can’t stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.
Setting ROI targets
Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Aave before it crashed back down.
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Summing it all up
Consider the individual risk of each crypto and start looking for red flags:
- guaranteed promises of large returns (protip: that’s a Ponzi)
- float allocations that give way too much to the founder
- vague whitepapers
- vague timelines
- no clear use case
- Github with no useful code and sparse activity
- a team that is difficult to find information on or even worse anonymous
While all cryptocurrencies are a risky investments but generally you can break down cryptos into “low” risk core, medium risk speculative and high risk speculative
- Low Risk Core – This is the exchange pairing cryptos and those that are well established. These are almost sure to be around in 5 years, and will recover after any bear market. Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum are in this class of risk, and I would also argue Monero. Allocate most of your funds into this basket.
- Medium Risk Speculative – These would be cryptos which generally have at least some product and are reasonably established, but higher risk than Core. Things like Stellar, Cardano, BNB, NEO..etc.
- High Risk Speculative – This is anything created within the last few years, low caps, shillcoins, DeFi…etc. Most cryptos are in this category, most of them will be essentially worthless in 5 years. Invest a very small portion of your funds and only what you can afford to lose (and I truly mean it because there is a big chance you will lose it all).
CaptainAltcoin's writers and guest post authors may or may not have a vested interest in any of the mentioned projects and businesses. None of the content on CaptainAltcoin is investment advice nor is it a replacement for advice from a certified financial planner. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of CaptainAltcoin.com