Mid May Update: Technicals
It makes almost no sense to do any technical analysis on KIN token as it is worth less than a satoshi. It is clear that this token can take off only on solid fundamentals, which we cover further below. But if you plan to buy and hold some KIN, arm yourself with patience, a lot of patience as the KIN ecosystem is huge by design and it takes a lot of momentum to lift it up and get it going.
Trading volumes are not looking good with reported volume being a laughable $11k in the last 24 hours. This is essentially non-existent liquidity – if you are stuck with a bag of KIN, you can’t offload it, not even at a loss. You can perhaps give it for free to some random stranger ;).
Moreover, KIN comparatively has almost non-existent buy support, according to coinmarketbook.cc. Buy support is measuring sum of buy orders at 10% distance from the highest bid price. This way we can eliminate fake buy walls and whale manipulation and see the real interest of the market in a certain coin. KIN currently has minuscule $21k of buy orders measured with this method, which sets KIN buy support/market cap ratio at 0.031% which is a rock bottom figure. Bitcoin and Ethereum have a 0.27% and 0.28% ratios, respectively. This novel metric indicates there are a lot of manipulations, inflated liquidity and fake orders on KIN trading pairs.
Mid May Update: Fundamentals
To assess fundamental health of a project, we used the FCAS metric. FCAS is a comparative metric whose score is derived from the interactivity between primary project lifecycle fundamentals: User Activity, Developer Behavior, and Market Maturity.
There are a few sub components which provide data to each fundamental:
User Activity is comprised of Project Utilization and Network Activity
Developer Behavior is comprised of Code Changes, Code Improvement and Community Involvement
Market Maturity is comprised of Liquidity and Market Risk. Market Maturity has less than 5% impact on a project’s overall FCAS.
FCAS ratings are on a 0-1000 point scale with a corresponding letter grade. Break points are based on standard deviations in the underlying component distributions.
900 – 1000 is marked as S for superb. 750 – 899 is marked as A for attractive. 650 – 749 is marked as B for basic. 500 – 649 is marked as C for caution. And finally, below 500 is marked as fragile. You can read more about it here.
KIN has been ranked as the A category – attractive with overall 819 points as of May 6th. By far the strongest metric that contributed to this great score is developer activity that got 882 points, followed by user activity with 818 and market maturity that had only 442 points. This goes to show that KIN has all a good project needs aside of market maturity and recognition.
Below are some of the most important news around the project in the last 30 days.
- The team representing KIN Foundation took part on TheNextWeb Conference in Amsterdam.
- There is a sort of a discontent in the community as the secretive partnership with a company that has 60 million users seems to have gone astray. Or perhaps it is only delayed. But the frustration in their subreddit is palpable as the hopes went high upon the pre-announcement.
- KinFit is live and available for you to download in the Google Play Store for Android devices!
- Kin is now available on Coinbase Custody. KIN holders can now benefit from Coinbase Custody’s industry-leading offline storage platform and insurance Coverage. Coinbase Custody is also supporting the Kin migration by providing swap services to large institutional investors.
- KIN is currently migrating to their own network and that process is in full swing as around 16% of tokens are migrated.
- Foundation is also working on finding new exchanges to list the coin as it is currently available only on small and even obscure exchanges. The only bigger but not too reputable exchange that has KIN listed is HitBTC. This snag is one of the most cited reasons by KIN holders for KIN’s failure to rise in price. According to their officials, KIN resources from a bandwidth and financial perspective are going towards the listings on exchanges. As far as timing goes, there is a level of confidentiality that needs to be upheld to ensure the actual integration goes live. Timing is sensitive information and often isn’t even shared broadly amongst their internal teams.
Below is our long-term forecast where we cover general market movements and sentiment shifts before delving deeper into the specific predictions for KIN.
Token sales have boomed in 2017 and ICOs are becoming an increasingly popular way of fundraising. However, Kik is the first established mainstream company to use this funding model instead of traditional venture capital. The Kik ICO raised nearly $100 million including contributions from a private presale.
Kik included Kin – its own cryptocurrency that will serve as a foundation for a decentralized ecosystem of digital services. Kik was inspired by the recent success of Bitcoin and decided it was the right time to announce their cryptocurrency as a part to integrate blockchain with social media. Kik’s new cryptocurrency allows it to use an internationalized currency for many transactions, which is a revolutionizing step on their part.
Kik founder and CEO Tod Livingston said that “Kik believes that Kin can bring together a broad group of participants to create an open ecosystem of digital services that prioritizes consumer experience and choice”.
Kik aims to use Kin tokens as an incentive for its users and developers and the Kik team will use these coins to drive forth the network. And these coins will actually have monetary value and they will be offered rewards on the app. Developers can earn for creating content and also based on metrics that reward user engagement — such as time-spent within their app or service — to help focus on building things people actually like and use. Users can pay others for providing a live stream and companies could reward users with Kin in exchange for posting about them “or interacting with an experience”. Coins will also be offered for doing small tasks such as watching ads, or by interacting with chatbots created by brands and publishers.
The majority of Kin’s rewards are dedicated to content developers as the financial incentive and this is to ensure that they are compensated without relying on advertisements (unlike on YouTube, etc). The Kin’s algorithm will reflect each service provider’s contribution, and the Kin Rewards Engine will issue a daily reward to developers based on a measure of the Kin economy inside of each digital service. The more people use Kin, the more valuable the tokens will become, which means that daily rewards will also increase for the users.
Year in Review
According to Kin CEO ok Kik and Kin, Ted Livingston, the project iterated through several options to create a scalable blockchain. They started with Ethereum and then Stellar, later combining both for perfect results. This helped unlock the consequent steps, allowing the developers like Perfect365, Kinit, Kik, and 40 others in the Kin Developer Program to begin building mainstream application.
The CEO, however, acknowledged that there’s still work to be done.
The first utility was launched last year once the token distribution even was concluded. It allowed users in Kin to use Kin in order to unlock exclusive stickers as per their balances. Later, the company moved to enable users to not only earn stickers, but also buy them. However, this crashed the Ethereum network quickly, and Kin decided to step in, moving app transactions to Stellar.
Expanding the Ecosystem to Other Apps
Livingston says that they launched Kinit app to allow brands to pay for users’ attention, making it the first iPhone app globally to get approval by Apple for earning and spending crypto. Combined with Kik users, this development saw Kin get more active users compared to all other Ethereum dApps combined.
Frustrated with the Stellar’s alleged short-term inability to achieve “business scale,” the project shifted course once more in May, and developers announced that they would fork Stellar to launch an independent Kin blockchain, while retaining bidirectional support with Ethereum to capitalize on the latter’s ubiquity and liquidity.
KIN Roadmap for 2019
There is no official roadmap. Kin CTO, Matt D said this about the company’s stance on public roadmaps and lack thereof:
“Roadmap. We do publish a roadmap. We do not publish a detailed one, or one with dates. For example, Ted has said since the beginning that our roadmap is this: (1) build a scalable blockchain, (2) integrate Kin in Kik, and (3) expand Kin beyond Kik. That’s a roadmap that the team committed to, and one that they’ve accomplished. Much more detail than that exists internally, but we refrain from sharing that detail externally because things change so rapidly, and often unexpectedly, when we learn new information, uncover blocks, and realize unforeseen dependencies. We never want to promise something we are not able to deliver with a very high degree of confidence.”
General Market Movements and Sentiment Shift
The downfall of altcoins that were mainstream media darlings at the start of the year, KIN among them, can be attributed, in part, to novice investors getting scared off once the bear market kicked in with a vengeance. Every resurgence of bitcoin in recent period, was met with the, for the most part, inability of altcoins to rally with it. Reason for that can be rookie investors learning from their mistakes, while smart money that was previously watching from the sidelines has begun to enter into bitcoin.
These entities weren’t about to buy BTC when it was trading at an all-time high, but they’ll take a look now, having missed the boat the first time around. None of them, it seems, are interested in altcoins however, despite the fact that many are trading at a 5x discount. Institutional investors may be cautious, but they’re not foolish.
Our KIN Price Prediction for 2019
KIN, as the rest of the market, is tied at the hip of bitcoin’s price action. If bitcoin embarks on another bull run, KIN can hope for one as well. Since that is very unlikely, don’t expect much to change for KIN price-wise in this year. So 2019 will be a year of boring sideways action with minor bitcoin ignited jumps and slumps.
The main currency in cryptocurrency markets is Bitcoin and given this, altcoins tend to fuel Bitcoin runs and Bitcoin tends to do the same in return. Given this relationship, Bitcoin price movements (or lack thereof) tend to effect altcoin prices.
When Bitcoin goes up swiftly, it will likely:
- Suppress or depress altcoins as money flows into Bitcoin;
- Or, take altcoins along for the ride
In cases when Bitcoin plunges, it will likely:
- Depress altcoins as money flows into fiat;
- Or, cause altcoins to boom as money flows into them, but this is rarely the case.
When Bitcoin moves sideways, it will likely:
- Cause altcoins to mimic that as traders wait for a clear sign on the direction of the market;
- Or, cause altcoins to flourish as traders look for returns in altcoins and try to get favorable trades in terms of BTC pairs.
To summarize, Bitcoin is the focal point of the crypto market in many ways, and with BTC trading pairs on every exchange, the gravity of Bitcoin is hard to evade.
The majority of projects will fail — some startups are created just to gather funds and disappear, some would not handle the competition, but most are just ideas that look good on paper, but in reality, are useless for the market.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum said:
“There are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there are a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well”
As a result, over 95% of successful ICOs and cryptocurrency projects will fail and their investors will lose money. The other 5% of projects will become the new Apple, Google or Alibaba in the cryptoindustry. Will KIN be among those 5%?
Good probability of that happening.
The Kik company is very balanced in their approach to the 3 most important dimensions of every crypto project: technology development, forging business partnerships and community fostering.
KIN has one major advantage over all other cryptocurrency projects: its parent company KIK has a huge active user group already in place, which is a huge plus for the coin in terms of usage. There are several social media blockchain startups, but none of them have large user bases, or even a working product at this time.
If KIN and Kik manage to build an ecosystem that will combine a rare trait for a crypto project, great user experience on one side and meaningful use of cryptocurrencies on the other, that will be a huge step forward for the whole crypto industry.
While some of the motivation in creating this token was certainly financial, it does seek to work with the gamification aspect that comes with social media. KIN could certainly be on to something, but will need to be more aggressive in spreading to other apps beyond Kik to become extremely successful.
Why will KIN succeed?
Why will KIN fail?
Can KIN reach 10 cents or $1?
All of this summed up means one thing: KIN might live through couple of orchestrated and, for a regular trader, completely unpredictable pumps but the majority of time will be murky sideways trading with small volume and no significant interest from the market.
Price will heavily depend on what BTC will do and since many analysts think BTC will not be making big moves in this year, it is hard to expect KIN will do them either. The price will probably stagnate and record slow-moving depreciation or appreciation depending on the team activity, potential technological breakthrough or high-level partnership
Market prediction for KIN Price 2019
With the market being completely unpredictable, forecasting the cryptocurrency price is really more of a gamble and luck rather than a data driven guesstimate.
Let’s throw a glance at the eminent publications and personalities, and their predictions regarding the KIN price, which will give us another point of view to consider:
Walletinvestor is a popular website that does technical analysis-based price predictions of various cryptocurrencies. According to them, KIN is expected to go down to $0.000002 (yes, that is five zeros) in one year. This price prediction is very bearish pessimistic and it might not fall that much.
Trading Beasts also gave a very neutral prediction saying that by 2019 end, KIN might be in between $0.00001 to $0.00002, which is a wide range, so this prediction is given neutrally, without a showcase of any optimism.
Mega Crypto Price
Mega Crypto price predicts that KIN might reach $0.00016 by the end of 2019 and $0.002 by the end of 2023.
Cryptoground predicts that KIN might reach $0.0001 by the end of 2019. They even added their version of KIN price prediction 2024, where they stated that KIN might reach $0.018 by 2024.
KIN Future: 2020, 2023, 2025
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