Mid May Update: Technicals
Minor trend on the 4 hour timeframe is bullish as BCH has bounced nicely from the low of May 11th to reach Fib50 at 0.0539 BTC. This is a breakout point for BCH – if it penetrates this height, BCH will literally fly, potentially all the way up to test the previous high from April at 0.0649 BTC. Moving averages are set to make a bullish crossover which is a further indicator of a potential surge for BCH.
Breakdown point is at Fib236 and 0.0482 BTC. If this height fails, BCH will probably stoop all the way back to local bottom at 0.04303 BTC.
Intermediate trend for BCH trendless ranging with portents of a pending bull run – MA50 made a bullish cross of MA200 and EMA20 is about to do the same with MA50.
Major trend for BCH is turning bullish as well, as the price action rests on EMA20 while forming a symmetric triangle pattern – usual indicator of trend continuation.
Below is our long-term forecast where we cover general market movements and sentiment shifts before delving deeper into the specific predictions for BCH.
Bitcoin Cash Intro
In mid-2017, a group of developers wanting to increase bitcoin’s block size limit prepared a code change. The change, called a hard fork, took effect on 1 August 2017. As a result, the bitcoin ledger called the blockchain and the cryptocurrency split in two.
Bitcoin Cash (“Bcash”) was created out of tension among early Bitcoin investors over rising transaction fees and increasingly divergent opinions on the best on-chain scaling solutions for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Cash also prioritizes strict adherence to what is called Satoshi’s “vision” for the original Bitcoin. Viewing peer to peer transactions as the core value proposition of the network and the factor that should be optimized versus other competing factors like security.
It differs from the other versions in that in enabled the increase of the block size from one MB to eight MB. It’s overall goal is to increase the number of transactions that can be processed by the network, hoping that Bitcoin Cash will be able to compete with the volume of transactions that industry giants like PayPal and Visa can currently process.
BCH Roadmap for 2019
The official bitcoincash.org website states that Bitcoin Cash is set out to achieve three goals:
The needed technical improvements can be divided into three categories:
- Enable Bitcoin Cash to scale from ~100 Tx/s to over 5,000,000 Tx/s. Protocol improvements must be made so that mass-parallelization can enable this level of transaction processing.
- Improving the payment experience to ensure that it is instant and reliable. Transactions should be secure within three seconds.
- Make Bitcoin Cash extensible. An extensible protocol makes future improvements less disruptive, and provides a solid base for businesses and developers to build on.
You can see a complete roadmap on the image below or by clicking here.
General Market Movements and Sentiment Shift
The downfall of altcoins that were mainstream media darlings at the start of the last year, BCH among them, can be attributed, in part, to novice investors getting scared off once the bear market kicked in with a vengeance. Every resurgence of bitcoin in recent period, was met with the, for the most part, inability of altcoins to rally with it. Reason for that can be rookie investors learning from their mistakes, while smart money that was previously watching from the sidelines has begun to enter into bitcoin.
These entities weren’t about to buy BTC when it was trading at an all-time high, but they’ll take a look now, having missed the boat the first time around. None of them, it seems, are interested in altcoins however, despite the fact that many are trading at a 5x discount. Institutional investors may be cautious, but they’re not foolish.
Some altcoins will continue to have some speculative value for the foreseeable future. But just like the now infamous tulips, the hysteria will eventually subside. We are already witnessing the first phases of that slide and even though most of the bag holders react emotionally to articles that criticize their coins, I am just observing the developments on the market. You better start emotionally detaching yourself from your “great sounding” coin because if goes nowhere, ideas are worthless without execution and real users that see value in the project.
Our BCH Price Prediction for 2019
BCH, as the rest of the market, is tied at the hip of bitcoin’s price action. If bitcoin embarks on another bull run, BCH can hope for one as well. Since that is very unlikely, don’t expect much to change for BCH price-wise in this year. So 2019 will be a year of boring sideways action with minor bitcoin ignited jumps and slumps.
The main currency in cryptocurrency markets is Bitcoin and given this, altcoins tend to fuel Bitcoin runs and Bitcoin tends to do the same in return. Given this relationship, Bitcoin price movements (or lack thereof) tend to effect altcoin prices.
When Bitcoin goes up swiftly, it will likely:
- Suppress or depress altcoins as money flows into Bitcoin;
- Or, take altcoins along for the ride
In cases when Bitcoin plunges, it will likely:
- Depress altcoins as money flows into fiat;
- Or, cause altcoins to boom as money flows into them, but this is rarely the case.
When Bitcoin moves sideways, it will likely:
- Cause altcoins to mimic that as traders wait for a clear sign on the direction of the market;
- Or, cause altcoins to flourish as traders look for returns in altcoins and try to get favorable trades in terms of BTC pairs.
To summarize, Bitcoin is the focal point of the crypto market in many ways, and with BTC trading pairs on every exchange, the gravity of Bitcoin is hard to evade.
The majority of projects will fail — some startups are created just to gather funds and disappear, some would not handle the competition, but most are just ideas that look good on paper, but in reality, are useless for the market.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum said:
“There are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there are a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well”
BCH Future Outlook
As a result, over 95% of cryptocurrency projects will fail and their investors will lose money. The other 5% of projects will become the new Apple, Google or Alibaba in the cryptoindustry. Will BCH be among those 5%?
An examination of the available 600+ days worth of data on the bitcoin cash blockchain shows that despite the impassioned arguments and big promises made about its 8 MB block size, it has never come close to filling out this capacity.
Bitcoin Cash still remains far behind Bitcoin not only in proportional terms but also in absolute terms as both miners and consumers have overwhelmingly chosen to remain with Bitcoin. The data shows that far from filling out or even getting anywhere close to its 8 MB block size, BCH has averaged a block size of merely 171 KB since the August 2017 fork. Bitcoin, by comparison, has averaged about 934 KB of its 1 MB block capacity over the past month. In other words, BCH is utilizing just about 2.1 percent of its block capacity.
It appears to be a failed experiment now that Lightning Network is maturing. BTC invested in a layer 2 solution and BCH invested in marketing to deceive new investors and mostly attacking BTC. And that backfired as the market clearly signaled which coin is seen as the “real” bitcoin and which one is relegated to the status of a mere altcoin.
Additionally, Bitcoin Cash network security is in a constant threat of reorg and 51% attack as its hashrate is couple of orders of magnitude lower than bitcoin’s.
All of this indicates that Bitcoin Cash has low probability of succeeding in its original intention but it not all is doomsday for the project. It can still pivot into being something different than bitcoin, especially as the project leaders show more agility in making changes than the bitcoin core camp. This proclivity to implementing changes and new features could be an advantage for BCH going forward.
Why will BCH succeed?
Why will BCH fail?
Is BCH dead?
All of this summed up means one thing: BCH might live through couple of orchestrated and, for a regular trader, completely unpredictable pumps but the majority of time will be murky sideways trading with small volume and no significant interest from the market.
Price will heavily depend on what BTC will do and since many analysts think BTC will not be making big moves in this year, it is hard to expect BCH will do them either. The price will probably stagnate and record slow-moving depreciation or appreciation depending on the team activity, potential technological breakthrough or high-level partnership.
Market prediction for Bitcoin Cash – BCH Price 2019
With the market being completely unpredictable, forecasting the cryptocurrency price is really more of a gamble and luck rather than a data driven guesstimate.
Let’s throw a glance at the eminent publications and personalities, and their predictions regarding the BCH price, which will give us another point of view to consider:
Walletinvestor is a popular website that does technical analysis-based price predictions of various cryptocurrencies. According to them, BCH is expected to drop heavily to $75 per token in one year.
Trading beasts display that BCH can rocket to around $396 within a year which means it can roughly reach about $2,760 by 2020.
Cryptoground predicts that BCH might rise to $560 by the end of 2019. They even added their version of BCH price prediction 2024, where they stated that BCH might reach $3,310 by 2024.
Digitalcoinprice gave a slightly positive prediction saying that by 2019 end, BCH might be two times more worth than now – $566 per coin.
BCH Future: 2020, 2023, 2025
BCH Price Prediction 2020
BCH (BCH) has been one of the most contentious blockchains ever since its inception. However, the team kept working on their network and the project still seems to have some kind of a future, although the whole story and team behind it are fickle. In 2020, once the market wipes out the worthless projects, BCH might be still alive but the price could be far lower than now.
BCH Price Prediction 2023
If BCH survives to see 2023, that would mean the project stood the test of time and user adoption is growing, which would all lead to the token being worth at least 10-100x than its hitherto all time high. That would mean BCH would cost $43k+ per coin.
BCH Price Prediction 2025
Similarly to 2023, if BCH survives to see 2025, that would mean the project stood the test of time and user adoption is growing, which would all lead to the token being worth at least 100x+ than its hitherto all time high. That would mean BCH would cost at least $430k+ per coin.
Realistic BCH Price Prediction
Predicting prices of novel, highly volatile and risky asset classes is a thankless task – best answer is no one knows. Educated guess is that realistic BCH price for the foreseeable future is somewhere between its current price and its all time high.
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