In this guide, we will voice our own and market’s opinion on Uniswap future while discussing UNI price forecast for 2021 and beyond.
Please bear in mind that you should take this and any other prediction with a grain of salt since predicting anything is a thankless task, let alone predicting the future of a novel, highly volatile financial asset like Uniswap.
Now, let’s head into it.
Before we delve deep into the Iota price prediction and answer questions if Uniswap is a good investment or not, why will Uniswap succeed or fail or why will Uniswap price rise or drop, let’s quickly throw a glance at what is Uniswap and its to date history.
What is Uniswap
The project was created by an individual called Hayden Adams, a former mechanical engineer who lost his “real world” job in 2017. Seeing a post made by Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin convinced him to learn about smart contract development. After he did so, Adams later on employed his newly-acquired skills to create a decentralized exchange which he named Uniswap.
The exchange is hosted on the Ethereum blockchain architecture in the form of two smart contracts, a “Factory” contract and “Exchange” contract. The “Factory” smart contract contains an exchange registry, and a method to deploy an “Exchange” contract for a particular ERC20 token.
Thanks to this, any valid ERC20 token can be exchanged on Uniswap via their own unique exchange contract. There is exactly one exchange contract per ERC20 token and if a token does not yet have an exchange, one can be created by anyone using the Uniswap factory contract.
Automated Market Maker (AMM)
Market making isn’t done by specifying the prices you want to sell/buy for. What happens is that Uniswap makes markets with the help of a deterministic algorithm called Automated Market Maker (AMM).
The algorithm quotes prices to end users according to a pre-defined rule set called “Constant Product Market Maker Model”. This AMM is able to always provide liquidity, no matter how large the order size nor how tiny the liquidity pool; the trick is that the price of the coin asymptotically increases as the desired quantity increases. While larger orders tend to suffer as a result, the system never has to worry about running out of liquidity.
The market making mechanism operates through the x*y=k formula. For example, let’s assume that market makers contributed 1000 ERC20 token and 1000 ETH to the pool; the goal of the exchange’s algorithm is to maintain the size of this 1 million token pool (maintain a constant k value).
A trader who buys ETH from the pool will contribute ERC20 token to it, basically increasing the amount of x and decreasing the amount of y in the pool. These don’t scale linearly, as buying 10 ETH instead of 1 ETH won’t require 10x the ERC20 token. The scaling happens asymptotically and according to the following curve of the equation x*y=k:O
Uniswap Price Prediction 2021
Many investors (traditional and crypto) will tell you that fundamentals are extremely important and should carry the most weight when you assess a project. We agree with this claim, to an extent.
Crypto is specific in a sense that fundamentals are hard to rely on. How come?
Well, most of the crypto investors are not technologically refined to understand if it is even feasible to do what the project claims to be doing. This leads to exaggerated and unsubstantiated roadmaps by many crypto project teams. These roadmaps sound terrific and people flock to invest in the project even though, with a little technical or economical knowledge, they would have seen how ridiculous some of those ideas are.
⚡️ Use case
For this reason, it is always good to check the feasibility of the use case by consulting someone more technically astute.
For example, a lot of these projects noticed the transaction speed issue with Bitcoin so they went all-in with how fast their blockchains are. But that speed came at a cost of decentralization. Essentially, they claimed to have solved a blockchain trilemma, which bugged geniuses for centuries. But some twenty-something no-names solved it in a week or so.
The ground-breaking tech that spearheaded the development of a whole industry into the DEX and AMM sectors. It is a cornerstone of the new DeFi industry that is rapidly growing by day. Despite blockchain based digital assets trading since 2009, there has been a functional gap between on-chain transactions and centralized exchanges. This is now bridged with the success of Uniswap, a decentralized exchange. Uniswap’s constant product automated market maker enables the trading of blockchain token without relying on market makers, bids or asks. This overturns centuries of practice in financial markets, and constitutes a building block of a new decentralized financial system.
Assessing the team behind the project is another point that needs to be addressed. More often than not, those people will be the only source of their claims (and doctored LinkedIn profiles). So, even though this is an important criterion, bear in mind that a cunning team of marketers can fake legitimacy.
One huge RED FLAG about a team is tweeting, posting, blogging about the price of their token. No legitimate team does that as they have smarter things to do – like work on a multi-million dollar project of theirs. Only money grabbers run their official social media and blogs as the most blatant market manipulators (example: Justin Sun) to run the price up before they dump their mountains of coins they created out of nothing and awarded to themselves.
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Such teams usually pay off low-tier crypto media publications to post “unbiased” articles and reviews of their projects in an attempt to create an illusion of a widely respected and attractive project.
Uniswap was created by Hayden Adams, a former mechanical engineer at Siemens. He graduated from Stony Brook University with a bachelor in engineering in 2016. The exchange raised millions of dollars from venture capitalists including Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm Venture Capital, Union Square Ventures LLC and ParaFi.
Community – pay special attention to this one. Size of the community is not relevant as it can easily be faked (just check Fiverr or Upwork to see how easy is to buy 100k of Twitter followers or subreddit subscribers).
What is more important is the content those community members post – does it look real? Is it only price-centered? It it allowed to exercise some critical thinking or the only posts allowed are shills and cult-like idolizing of the team (most often the team leader gets a rockstar status among the sheepish investors).
Very active subreddit with more than 25k subscribers and a huge following on Twitter and diverse forums and social media groups. As a true DEX unicorn, Uniswap is as popular and beloved as it gets.
⚡️ Exchanges and wallet support
Another good indicator of how serious is the project taken by other crypto agents. Some smaller and marginal exchanges and wallets can be paid off for listings but larger platforms like Kraken, Binance or Coinbase lend legitimacy to a project that is listed there. So, that is a great cue if the project is actually worth something among its peers.
Aside of its DEX success, UNI is also listed on many leading exchanges – like Binance, Bitfinex, Kraken, Kucoin etc. and wallets (Atomic Wallet, Trust Wallet, Guarda etc.).
Sometimes the project makes sense and everything sounds right except of the token role. It is just superfluous and forced into the picture (so the team can take the money and get rich). Aside of the logic behind the token, you should pay attention to its current and overall supply. Also, inflation and new coins production rate is extremely important. Distribution among the team, early investors and regular users is also of immense consequence. Check Ripple and XRP to see how hard is to have organic price growth when there is a whole slew of people who dump millions of new (unlocked) tokens into the market each week.
It is important that tokens are woven into the project with clever incentives in mind. It is all about incentives in the world of crypto – why should the buyer hold some coin, what is in it for him? Different projects use different methods to entice people to buy and hold their coin.
Uniswap presented its governance token that many in the DeFi sector were waiting for. The announcement came from the development team of the Decentralized Exchange (DEX) on September 16 and after being listed on Coinbase PRO and Binance, it recorded a considerable increase in both price and trading volume.
1 billion UNI have been minted and will become accessible within 4 years. The initial assignment is as follows:
– 60% to community members
– 21.51% to team members and future employees
– 17.80% to investors
-0.069% to advisors.
After the token distribution the token inflation rate will be 2% every year, ensuring continued participation and contribution to Uniswap at the expense of passive holders.
As you can see, the inflation rate is not high but the overall supply is. However, considering the ever-growing adoption rate of Uniswap, UNI token should maintain enough appeal for users to take part in governing the protocol and collect rewards.
⚡️ Trading volume
Trading volume is another excellent barometer of the quality of the assets. This can also be faked by automatic and wash trading on small exchanges but, just filter those out and see if there is actual liquidity on the bigger platforms.
The exchange itself is boasting an average trading volume of $200 million in the last 3 months. The token, which is listed on many other exchanges, is generating daily volumes of $500 million to $3 billion. This is a clear sign of Uniswap’s and UNI token’s popularity.
Now, we’re talking about the really impactful market forces.
Unfortunately, the power of social media, especially Twitter, Discord, and Telegram groups and to a smaller extent subreddits and Facebook groups, often outweighs the fundamentals of a crypto project. As a consequence, we see trash and half-dead zombie projects like Dogecoin, Electroneum, Verge, Tron (not dead but everything is faked around it, from the number of users and dapps to the unoriginal and uninspiring, incompetent leadership) and similar shitcoins rising up in the market cap rankings, sometimes even entering the top 10.
The speculative wave can lift you into the skies but can, more often, smash your portfolio into a big zilch.
Some people are good at swimming with these sharks (Twitter personas hidden behind some lame nicknames like Crypto [INSERT ANIMAL) or Crypto [INSERT VERB]) that coordinate their shilling and price pumps and dumps. However, ordinary crypto buyers have no time or skills to keep up with them and are used as a plankton – food for the bigger crypto sea creatures to feast on.
Nevertheless, social media can be a place you run into some good tips about hidden gems. When you read something that sparks your interest, don’t get overexcited and invest right away. Instead, put it on a watchlist and check all of the stuff we mentioned above.
The key thing to look for is authenticity – does the community, social media posts of crypto personas, articles about the project on crypto media look legit? Is it posted by the well respected people with a strong reputation or by no-names who shill coins left and right? Is the community aware of potential flaws of the chosen project and is it allowed to discuss them? Are there systemic complaints of sudden bans and censorship by the community moderators?
A good project is not that hard to recognize and once you see posts about it by other people – check their profiles, check their tweet/post history, see if the recommendation comes across as a genuine suggestion or an artificial shill made out of self-interest?
Uniswap was a game-changer for the concept of DEX-es and ushered a new era of innovation in the blockchain space. As such, it enjoys a great reputation in the wide crypto circles. The team behind it is especially well-established and commands respect among the crypto users. The project garners the attention of a wide crypto base, tweets and posts about it on social media seem to be genuine and uncoordinated which means people recognize it as a legit project.
There are tons of positive tweets about the revolutionizing potential of Uniswap’s tech but the token itself is less popular. However, it still belongs in the basket of interesting coins to hold for the short and mid-term future.
Uniswap Price Prediction – summed up
Uniswap is a true cypherpunks project – a permissionless, non-custodial place for value exchange with plenty of liquidity and opportunities for every participant. To get started, all you need to do is connect a supported Ethereum wallet. To accomplish this task, simply click “Launch App” on Uniswap, then “Connect to a Wallet.” Notably, Metamask is a free ERC-20 wallet that integrates nicely with Uniswap. Once you’re connected, you can begin trading.
The UNI token is not too important for the ecosystem and is a typical governance token that pays “dividends” to its holders and is a tool for them to amend and govern the protocol.
Even though we like and appreciate Uniswap very much, UNI token is less valuable and its value is based purely on the speculative power generated by the wide base of Uniswap’s users. It is a good coin to have on a watchlist for shot-term pumps and price rocketting but there are better coins to hold for the long-term.
Where and how to buy UNI
Provided you don’t have any crypto and want to buy UNI for fiat, this is the easiest way to buy Uniswap (UNI):
- Download a Uniswap Wallet (Uniswap app, Atomic Wallet, Guarda, Trust Wallet usw)
- Create your UNI-Adress
- Find an exchange that lists UNI (Binance, Kraken, Kucoin) and buy UNI
- Transfer UNI from the exchange to your wallet
If you are not happy with Binance or can’t use it for some reason, here are a couple of alternatives:
Cex.io lot of payment methods
That is how you buy Uniswap, in a nutshell.
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Measure in Satoshis
You will always want to know if the effort of trading was worth it as opposed to just hodling BTC. You should also account for the time you spent trading as that time also has value.
For example, if you spent 15 hours trading altcoins and you ended up having the same amount of Satoshis, it means you have wasted those 15 hours and would have been better off if you simply held BTC.
Since Bitcoin sits in between the Fiat and Alt Coin sandwich, you should only ever trade in BTC value.
If I invest in an altcoin at .17 cents at 10k Sats and in 6 months, I cash out at .93 cents at 10k Sats. Did I make money in that altcoin?
The answer is no. Your opportunity cost was equal to holding bitcoin since the sat values didn’t move, the price of BTC going up is what netted you your increase in fiat. Not the increase of sats on STEEM.
If, however, you cashed out of STEEM at 20k sats at .93 cents over the course of 6 months, that means you made a profit in satoshi value as well as USD value (through bitcoin).
Constructing a Investment Strategy
I can’t stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.
Setting ROI targets
Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Aave before it crashed back down.
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Summing it all up
Consider the individual risk of each crypto and start looking for red flags:
- guaranteed promises of large returns (protip: that’s a Ponzi)
- float allocations that give way too much to the founder
- vague whitepapers
- vague timelines
- no clear use case
- Github with no useful code and sparse activity
- a team that is difficult to find information on or even worse anonymous
While all cryptocurrencies are a risky investments but generally you can break down cryptos into “low” risk core, medium risk speculative and high risk speculative
- Low Risk Core – This is the exchange pairing cryptos and those that are well established. These are almost sure to be around in 5 years, and will recover after any bear market. Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum are in this class of risk, and I would also argue Monero. Allocate most of your funds into this basket.
- Medium Risk Speculative – These would be cryptos which generally have at least some product and are reasonably established, but higher risk than Core. Things like Stellar, Cardano, BNB, NEO..etc.
- High Risk Speculative – This is anything created within the last few years, low caps, shillcoins, DeFi…etc. Most cryptos are in this category, most of them will be essentially worthless in 5 years. Invest a very small portion of your funds and only what you can afford to lose (and I truly mean it because there is a big chance you will lose it all).
CaptainAltcoin's writers and guest post authors may or may not have a vested interest in any of the mentioned projects and businesses. None of the content on CaptainAltcoin is investment advice nor is it a replacement for advice from a certified financial planner. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of CaptainAltcoin.com