In this guide, we will voice our own and market’s opinion on Aave future while discussing AAVE price forecast for 2021 and beyond.
Please bear in mind that you should take this and any other prediction with a grain of salt since predicting anything is a thankless task, let alone predicting the future of a novel, highly volatile financial asset like Aave.
Now, let’s head into it.
Before we delve deep into the Iota price prediction and answer questions if Aave is a good investment or not, why will Aave succeed or fail or why will Aave price rise or drop, let’s quickly throw a glance at what is Aave and its to date history.
What is Aave
Aave began as ETHLend in 2017 after it raised $16.2 million in an Initial Coin Offering (ICO) to create a decentralized peer-to-peer lending platform. Later, they rebranded to Aave when they switched to a liquidity pool model. Aave launched the Aave Protocol in 2020, an open-source and non-custodial liquidity protocol where users can earn interest on deposits and borrow assets.
Aave is a decentralized money market protocol where users can lend and borrow cryptocurrency across 20 different assets as collateral.
Aave currently offers borrowing and lending for 22 different ERC-20 tokens including USDT, USDC, ETH, and LINK.
Lenders can deposit any one of these ERC-20 tokens on Aave and earn interest on those funds. The interest lenders earn comes from the interest being paid by borrowers who are borrowing that ERC-20 token.
The protocol has a native token Aave, which is also a governance token that lets the community decide the direction of the protocol in a collective manner.
The lenders can earn interest by providing liquidity to the market, while borrowers can borrow by collateralizing their cryptoassets to take out loans from the liquidity pools.
AAVE Price Prediction 2021
Many investors (traditional and crypto) will tell you that fundamentals are extremely important and should carry the most weight when you assess a project. We agree with this claim, to an extent.
Crypto is specific in a sense that fundamentals are hard to rely on. How come?
Well, most of the crypto investors are not technologically refined to understand if it is even feasible to do what the project claims to be doing. This leads to exaggerated and unsubstantiated roadmaps by many crypto project teams. These roadmaps sound terrific and people flock to invest in the project even though, with a little technical or economical knowledge, they would have seen how ridiculous some of those ideas are.
⚡️ Use case
For this reason, it is always good to check the feasibility of the use case by consulting someone more technically astute.
For example, a lot of these projects noticed the transaction speed issue with Bitcoin so they went all-in with how fast their blockchains are. But that speed came at a cost of decentralization. Essentially, they claimed to have solved a blockchain trilemma, which bugged geniuses for centuries. But some twenty-something no-names solved it in a week or so.
One of the best use cases among altcoins!
Aave was a first mover in the DeFi lending sphere, a platform launched in 2017 as ETHLend. Since then, Aave has seen a tremendous amount of growth both in terms in users and volume. The sleek rebrand offered a much cleaner user experience along with a suite of new features – like Flash Loans. Aave moved from the P2P lending model to a pool-based model. By developing a number of algorithms to determine the interest rate to pay in pools for savers or liquidity providers (LPs) and the ratio of collateral or loan-to-value (LTV) ratio required for each asset, the system works without a mediating third party. Anyone can participate and there are no KYC checks.
Assessing the team behind the project is another point that needs to be addressed. More often than not, those people will be the only source of their claims (and doctored LinkedIn profiles). So, even though this is an important criterion, bear in mind that a cunning team of marketers can fake legitimacy.
One huge RED FLAG about a team is tweeting, posting, blogging about the price of their token. No legitimate team does that as they have smarter things to do – like work on a multi-million dollar project of theirs. Only money grabbers run their official social media and blogs as the most blatant market manipulators (example: Justin Sun) to run the price up before they dump their mountains of coins they created out of nothing and awarded to themselves.
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Such teams usually pay off low-tier crypto media publications to post “unbiased” articles and reviews of their projects in an attempt to create an illusion of a widely respected and attractive project.
Very transparent and professional. No price action shilling or commenting, focused on building.
Aave, and its predecessor ETHLend, were founded by Stani Kulechov. At the time, he was frustrated at the lack of lending applications on Ethereum — and his project was built before decentralized finance even existed.
Kulechov is a serial entrepreneur who went to law school and began programming when he was a teenager. He was an early adopter in the blockchain space. The CEO has said that he wanted to rebrand ETHLend as Aave so the company could offer a wider range of services beyond Ether lending.
According to Kulechov, Aave’s main target market are people who are already engaged in the cryptocurrency community.
Community – pay special attention to this one. Size of the community is not relevant as it can easily be faked (just check Fiverr or Upwork to see how easy is to buy 100k of Twitter followers or subreddit subscribers).
What is more important is the content those community members post – does it look real? Is it only price-centered? It it allowed to exercise some critical thinking or the only posts allowed are shills and cult-like idolizing of the team (most often the team leader gets a rockstar status among the sheepish investors).
Moderately active subreddit with almost 7k subscribers and a pretty active Telegram group. Seems to be genuine and authentic, no bots, no low-quality posting about moons and price action.
⚡️ Exchanges and wallet support
Another good indicator of how serious is the project taken by other crypto agents. Some smaller and marginal exchanges and wallets can be paid off for listings but larger platforms like Kraken, Binance or Coinbase lend legitimacy to a project that is listed there. So, that is a great cue if the project is actually worth something among its peers.
Very good support among the popular exchanges (Binance, Coinbase Pro, Kraken, Kucoin etc) and wallets (Atomic Wallet, Trust Wallet, Guarda etc.).
Sometimes the project makes sense and everything sounds right except of the token role. It is just superfluous and forced into the picture (so the team can take the money and get rich). Aside of the logic behind the token, you should pay attention to its current and overall supply. Also, inflation and new coins production rate is extremely important. Distribution among the team, early investors and regular users is also of immense consequence. Check Ripple and XRP to see how hard is to have organic price growth when there is a whole slew of people who dump millions of new (unlocked) tokens into the market each week.
It is important that tokens are woven into the project with clever incentives in mind. It is all about incentives in the world of crypto – why should the buyer hold some coin, what is in it for him? Different projects use different methods to entice people to buy and hold their coin.
AAVE is positioned as a utility token with both economic and governance rights, which is pretty close to traditional equity stock, except for the major difference that it serves a decentralized protocol. AAVE is the governance token of the AAVE protocol, which allows you to propose and vote for changes in the protocol, for example adding new coins to be used as collateral.
Other than that it’s used as an insurance token to avoid Liquidity shortcomings. For exposing your AAVE to that risk, you get a staking reward.
You can either use it to deposit stablecoins for a safe APY or you can deposit coins like ETH or wBTC and use them as collateral and loan stablecoins to further investing and hope the price goes up and you can refinance your loans with appreciating assets.
The token itself plays a huge role in the ecosystem and game theory around it and its value accrual through utility is solid.
⚡️ Trading volume
Trading volume is another excellent barometer of the quality of the assets. This can also be faked by automatic and wash trading on small exchanges but, just filter those out and see if there is actual liquidity on the bigger platforms.
Excellent and consistent trading volume in the last 3 months with ocassional spikes and drops. It moves in the range between $500 million to $2 billion per day which is a great liquidity for an ERC-20 token. The 24h trading volume hasn’t dropped below $500 million in the whole 2021.
Now, we’re talking about the really impactful market forces.
Unfortunately, the power of social media, especially Twitter, Discord, and Telegram groups and to a smaller extent subreddits and Facebook groups, often outweighs the fundamentals of a crypto project. As a consequence, we see trash and half-dead zombie projects like Dogecoin, Electroneum, Verge, Tron (not dead but everything is faked around it, from the number of users and dapps to the unoriginal and uninspiring, incompetent leadership) and similar shitcoins rising up in the market cap rankings, sometimes even entering the top 10.
The speculative wave can lift you into the skies but can, more often, smash your portfolio into a big zilch.
Some people are good at swimming with these sharks (Twitter personas hidden behind some lame nicknames like Crypto [INSERT ANIMAL) or Crypto [INSERT VERB]) that coordinate their shilling and price pumps and dumps. However, ordinary crypto buyers have no time or skills to keep up with them and are used as a plankton – food for the bigger crypto sea creatures to feast on.
Nevertheless, social media can be a place you run into some good tips about hidden gems. When you read something that sparks your interest, don’t get overexcited and invest right away. Instead, put it on a watchlist and check all of the stuff we mentioned above.
The key thing to look for is authenticity – does the community, social media posts of crypto personas, articles about the project on crypto media look legit? Is it posted by the well respected people with a strong reputation or by no-names who shill coins left and right? Is the community aware of potential flaws of the chosen project and is it allowed to discuss them? Are there systemic complaints of sudden bans and censorship by the community moderators?
A good project is not that hard to recognize and once you see posts about it by other people – check their profiles, check their tweet/post history, see if the recommendation comes across as a genuine suggestion or an artificial shill made out of self-interest?
AAVE enjoys a great reputation among its crypto peers. The team behind it is well-respected and proven in crypto circles. The project garners the attention of a wide crypto base, tweets and posts about it on social media seem to be genuine and uncoordinated which means people recognize it as a legit project.
There are tons of positive tweets about the revolutionizing potential of Aave’s tech and a slew of crypto Twitter analysts claim to be trading and holding AAVE for the long-term. All of this puts AAVE as one of the hottest coins to hold in the future.
AAVE Price Prediction – summed up
Having analyzed all of the above on AAVE, we can say that this is a legit project, a leading DeFi protocol that faces fierce competition by similar projects that started after it. It enjoys a good standing in the crypto circles and could be a worthy investment in the short and long-term.
AAVE is an impressive achievement and one of the many harbingers of blockchain’s and DeFi’s potential in revolutionizing the finance world. And unlike many other projects that sound nice on paper but nobody uses them, AAVE has actually made a functional product that is appreciated and used by millions of users every month.
Where and how to buy AAVE
This is how you can buy AAVE:
- Download a AAVE Wallet (Atomic Wallet, Guarda, Trust Wallet usw)
- Create your AAVE-Adress
- Find an exchange that lists AAVE (Binance, Kraken, Kucoin) and buy AAVE
- Transfer AAVE from the exchange to your wallet
If you are not happy with Binance or can’t use it for some reason, here are a couple of alternatives:
Cex.io lot of payment methods
That is how you buy AAVE, in a nutshell.
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AAVE is an ERC-20 token and as such enjoys the support of almost all known crypto wallets. Some of the best ones to use are Trust Wallet, Guarda or Atomic Wallet. It also has integration with a hardware wallet like Ledger Nano X or S.
Measure in Satoshis
You will always want to know if the effort of trading was worth it as opposed to just hodling BTC. You should also account for the time you spent trading as that time also has value.
For example, if you spent 15 hours trading altcoins and you ended up having the same amount of Satoshis, it means you have wasted those 15 hours and would have been better off if you simply held BTC.
Since Bitcoin sits in between the Fiat and Alt Coin sandwich, you should only ever trade in BTC value.
If I invest in an altcoin at .17 cents at 10k Sats and in 6 months, I cash out at .93 cents at 10k Sats. Did I make money in that altcoin?
The answer is no. Your opportunity cost was equal to holding bitcoin since the sat values didn’t move, the price of BTC going up is what netted you your increase in fiat. Not the increase of sats on STEEM.
If, however, you cashed out of STEEM at 20k sats at .93 cents over the course of 6 months, that means you made a profit in satoshi value as well as USD value (through bitcoin).
Constructing a Investment Strategy
I can’t stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.
Setting ROI targets
Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Aave before it crashed back down.
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Summing it all up
Consider the individual risk of each crypto and start looking for red flags:
- guaranteed promises of large returns (protip: that’s a Ponzi)
- float allocations that give way too much to the founder
- vague whitepapers
- vague timelines
- no clear use case
- Github with no useful code and sparse activity
- a team that is difficult to find information on or even worse anonymous
While all cryptocurrencies are a risky investments but generally you can break down cryptos into “low” risk core, medium risk speculative and high risk speculative
- Low Risk Core – This is the exchange pairing cryptos and those that are well established. These are almost sure to be around in 5 years, and will recover after any bear market. Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum are in this class of risk, and I would also argue Monero. Allocate most of your funds into this basket.
- Medium Risk Speculative – These would be cryptos which generally have at least some product and are reasonably established, but higher risk than Core. Things like Stellar, Cardano, BNB, NEO..etc.
- High Risk Speculative – This is anything created within the last few years, low caps, shillcoins, DeFi…etc. Most cryptos are in this category, most of them will be essentially worthless in 5 years. Invest a very small portion of your funds and only what you can afford to lose (and I truly mean it because there is a big chance you will lose it all).
CaptainAltcoin's writers and guest post authors may or may not have a vested interest in any of the mentioned projects and businesses. None of the content on CaptainAltcoin is investment advice nor is it a replacement for advice from a certified financial planner. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of CaptainAltcoin.com