Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis: Lulled Into Stagnation

So far, ADA has had a mixed year. In the last 12 months, ADA experienced a decent drop that saw its price fall nearly 44% in USD and 54% against BTC.

Since the beginning of the year, ADA experienced a decent drop that saw its price fall nearly 50% in USD and 62% against BTC.

ADA, currently ranked #12 by market cap, is down 3.34% over the past 24 hours. ADA has a market cap of $1.06B with a 24 hour volume of $58M. Majority of trading volume comes from CoinEX and Binance and their pairs: ADAUSDT

Total market cap analysis

Let’s take a look at what the overall market is doing. It is a well known fact that all coin prices are highly correlated with bitcoin’s price action and by extension with the whole market. Every time we see a surge or plunge of the total market cap, it spills over to the individual coins and their prices.

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Market has made a solid recovery yesterday, gaining around $7 billion, lead by bitcoin and high cap altcoins. The market managed to break through the sturdy resistance at $214 billion (data by Tradingview, CMC data is off by approx +$8 billions). It hit the EMA20 which acted as a resistance and the market bounced off of it. We are right now at $222 billion and should the total cap break through the above mentioned EMA resistance zone, we could see a swift move up to the $240 billion zone, area from which we saw this horrific drop in the last week of September.


  • Major Support Level: $0.039
  • Major Resistance Level: $0.052
  • 78.6% FIB Retracement Level: $0.052
  • 61.8% FIB Retracement Level: $0.066
  • 38.2% FIB Retracement Level: $0.085
  • RSI on a daily is oversold
  • MACD made a bullish crossover

ADA dropped by 3.24% today but it still up by 7% on the week.

When we zoom into a 4H chart, we can see ADA sitting on a EMA20 after being rejected at the MA200 at $0.043 height. The MA50 is right below it and acts as the local support zone for ADA.


Weekly chart shows ADA recovery against bitcoin, having closed green candles in the last 4 weeks in a row.

Daily chart illustrates ADA struggling to break the 500 satoshis zone which is a Fib382 level. The price is right above the EMA20 and MA50 which act as support zone at aroun 460 sats.

  • Support level: MA50 and upsloping trendline at 470 sats.
  • Resistance: Fib50 at 530 sats
  • Potential upside scenario: blasting through the resistance at 530 sats to reach the local high at 650 sats.
  • Potential downside scenario: dropping back to the horizontal support line at 457 sats
  • Most likely scenario: hovering in the 450-650 sats zone, waiting for a market-wide impulse and volume increase before conquering new/old highs at 650+ sats.

Trading volume and buy support

Trading volumes are looking weak, according to Messari (data is different to CMC data): reported volume in the last 24 hours was $23m and “Real 10” volume was $8m. So, the reported volume is almost 3x larger than the “Real 10” volume (trading volume on the exchanges that prevent wash trading). This means that ADA’s liquidity is mildly inflated which is pretty good value in comparison with other top coins that have their metrics inflated by huge figures (20x discrepancy is not uncommon).

Read our updated guide on best ADA wallets.

On the other hand, ADA comparatively has a weak buy support, according to Buy support is measuring sum of buy orders at 10% distance from the highest bid price. This way we can eliminate fake buy walls and whale manipulation and see the real interest of the market in a certain coin. ADA currently has $5.7 million of buy orders measured with this method, which sets ADA buy support/market cap ratio at 0.53% which is a better ratio to bitcoin and ethereum. Bitcoin and Ethereum have a 0.20% and 0.28% ratios, respectively. This novel metric indicates there are a lot of manipulations, inflated liquidity and fake orders on ADA trading pairs.

Other ADA News

Cardano (ADA) cryptocurrency payments are now supported at ToStart, the first established coworking space in Sasebo, Japan.

Read our updated guide on most profitable coins to mine.

The space targets a mix of content creators, web designers, programming engineers and entrepreneurs from various sectors who are motivated to form new crypto-friendly and cashless working environments.

According to organizers at ToStart,

“In recent years, coworking spaces have been gaining in popularity as a new kind of shared office environment. These spaces are catching on worldwide, with 1300 new locations appearing every month, including 200 just within Japan.”

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CaptainAltcoin's writers and guest post authors may or may not have a vested interest in any of the mentioned projects and businesses. None of the content on CaptainAltcoin is investment advice nor is it a replacement for advice from a certified financial planner. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of

Sarah Wurfel
Sarah Wurfel

Sarah Wurfel works as a social media editor for CaptainAltcoin and specializes in the production of videos and video reports. She studied media and communication informatics. Sarah has been a big fan of the revolutionary potential of crypto currencies for years and accordingly also concentrated on the areas of IT security and cryptography in her studies.

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