XRP price has fallen into a dangerous technical position. The token has corrected sharply from the 2025 peak near $3.30. Analyst Grega Horvat warns that XRP price could face a massive capitulation event down to $0.10 if key support levels fail.
The warning comes as Ethereum and the overall cryptocurrency market show persistent weakness and adds downward pressure on altcoins across the board.
Horvat’s analysis points to a potential diagonal pattern forming on the 4-hour timeframe. This pattern can act as a reversal signal. The analyst notes that the trend remains bearish until the pattern confirms a breakout.
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XRP Chart Analysis: The Diagonal Pattern That Could Save or Break XRP
The 4-hour chart shows an important level at $0.95. This zone is the first major support after the recent drop. Horvat identifies a potential diagonal forming at these levels. Diagonal patterns often precede trend reversals. They can show exhaustion among sellers and a change in momentum.
However, the structure has not yet confirmed a bullish outcome. XRP price trades below key moving averages. The 50-day moving average sits near $1.18. The 200-day moving average rests around $1.47.
These levels act as resistance. Bulls need to reclaim both averages before any sustained advance can develop.
$XRP is finally moving lower, and slowly coming into key support at 1usd, that was a major breakout point 2 years back. So this can be a new and 1st support to watch.
— Grega Horvat (@GregaHorvatFX) July 13, 2026
The 4h TF shows an important level at 0.95. Good news is that we have a potential diagonal forming, known as a… pic.twitter.com/iCKboHpSHa
The weekly chart provides a longer-term perspective. XRP price completed a major impulsive advance into the 2025 peak.
The current drop appears to be a Wave IV correction in Elliott Wave terms. Wave IV corrections typically retrace between 38.2% and 61.8% of the prior impulse. XRP price now sits near the upper end of that retracement zone.
XRP Price Crash: The Levels That Matter – $0.90, $0.60, $0.40, and $0.10
Horvat shares a clear roadmap for XRP price if the current support fails. The first critical level sits at $0.90. A breakdown below this zone would confirm the diagonal pattern has failed.
The next major level sits at $0.60. This area is the triangle pivot from the 2023-2024 consolidation. XRP price spent months building a base near these levels. A retest would bring price back to a historically important zone. The response at $0.60 would decide whether the broader bullish structure remains intact.
Below $0.60, the next target sits at $0.40. This level is the triangle support from the same consolidation period. A breakdown below $0.40 would mean a complete breakdown of the higher-timeframe structure.
The capitulation level sits near $0.10. Horvat identifies this as the massive capitulation zone. A move to $0.10 would mean a full retracement of the entire 2023-2025 rally.
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Is XRP Price Headed for Capitulation, or Can Bulls Defend Support?
The current moment is a critical point for XRP price. The weekly chart shows price testing a major support zone near $1.00. This area coincides with the 2023 breakout level. Buyers need to appear here and defend this zone.
The risk/reward profile at current levels favors long-term investors. The downside to the next major support at $0.60 represents roughly 40%. The upside to the previous high near $3.30 represents more than 200%. This asymmetry supports the bullish case for patient investors.
However, the technical trend remains bearish in the short to medium term. XRP price has not produced a convincing high-volume reversal.
On-chain metrics suggest XRP price may be approaching value territory. The 30-day MVRV sits near -45%. The 365-day MVRV sits near -47%. These levels have historically coincided with buying opportunities.
Bullish scenario: XRP price defends the $1.00 support zone. The diagonal pattern completes and confirms a reversal. Bulls reclaim the $1.14-$1.20 resistance area. Price moves above the 50-day moving average. Momentum shifts positive. XRP price targets $1.70, then $2.40, and eventually the previous high near $3.30.
Bearish scenario: XRP price breaks below $0.95 on a weekly close. The diagonal pattern fails to confirm a reversal. Sellers drive price toward $0.60. A breakdown below $0.60 opens the door to $0.40. Below $0.40, the capitulation level near $0.10 comes into play.
The weekly chart suggests XRP price remains in a corrective phase rather than a confirmed bear market. The $1.00-$1.10 region is the key battleground. Holding this area supports the view that the drop is a Wave IV correction within a broader bullish cycle.
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