In our last XRP weekly prediction, we told you XRP would probably hang out between $1.10 and $1.18 unless something big forced it one way or the other. And that’s pretty much what happened.
Buyers kept it from falling below that bottom number, but every time they tried to push it past $1.18, sellers showed up and shut it down. Profit-taking and a tired market didn’t help either.
Right now, XRP is down a little under 1% over the last day, near $1.10. It’s not keeping up with Bitcoin or the rest of crypto. Why? Fewer people are moving coins on-chain, and big money isn’t flowing in like it used to.
But here’s the thing, Europe just made some regulatory moves that could help, and the bigger economic picture looks a bit better too. So this week might actually have some life in it, unlike the last one.
What you'll learn 👉
News Driving XRP’s Price Action
On July 11, Ripple won something big. Luxembourg gave them a full MiCA license, that’s the EU’s crypto rulebook. So now Ripple can offer payment and custody services in all 27 EU countries. For XRP, that’s a huge deal because banks and payment companies want to know the rules are clear before they jump in.
But that doesn’t mean everything’s rosy. Over on the XRP Ledger, things have cooled off. Active addresses dropped to 25,350 on July 11, the second-lowest daily number in all of 2026.
New wallets aren’t being opened either; that’s the weakest since November 2024. And big money? U.S. XRP ETFs saw $7.29 million leave on July 8, which broke a nine-week streak of people putting cash in.
So it’s not panic, just less action. People are waiting on the sidelines for someone to make the first move.
Market sentiment may also be setting up an interesting contrarian trade. Crypto analyst Crypto Patel noted that Binance funding rates have reached deeply bearish levels following a 72% correction, with short positions continuing to increase. The last time funding became this negative, the XRP price rallied roughly 126%. Bearish positioning alone does not guarantee a rebound, though it does raise the chances of a short squeeze if buying volume returns.
Everyone Is Turning Bearish On $XRP … And That's Worth Watching
— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) July 12, 2026
After A 72% Correction, #XRP Funding Rates On Binance Have Reached Extreme Bearish Levels.
Short Interest Is Building.
Pessimism Is Becoming Consensus.
History Shows That When Everyone Leans To One Side After A… pic.twitter.com/Y3JWWH5EKl
Here’s What The XRP Chart Is Showing
We pulled up the chart, and not much is happening. Price is hanging near $1.09, which is above that $1.05 level people watch, but it keeps bumping into resistance around $1.15–$1.18 and bouncing back down. Since July started, every time it tries to climb, it peaks a little lower than the last time. That tells you buyers aren’t really confident.
The numbers back that up. The RSI is around 43, which is below the middle line but not low enough to call it oversold. The Ultimate Oscillator is at 46.55, same story. Nothing extreme in either direction. Just flat.
One thing to watch: the MACD is beginning to flatten after spending several sessions below zero. The histogram is nearly at zero now, so the selling pressure is fading. If buyers can push that into a crossover in the next day or two, XRP might have enough gas to test that higher resistance zone again.
What Could Trigger XRP’s Next Move?
Regulation remains one of the biggest catalysts for the XRP price. People are keeping an eye on the CLARITY Act, a bill that would lay out clearer rules for digital assets in the U.S. If it goes through and XRP gets treated more like a commodity under the CFTC, big money might start jumping in faster.
ETF flows will also matter. Last week’s $7.29 million outflow interrupted months of steady buying. A return to positive inflows would indicate institutions are adding exposure again, providing liquidity that XRP has lacked over the past several sessions. Growth in Ripple’s cross-border payment business across Europe following its MiCA approval would add another bullish driver.
We can’t ignore what’s happening in the bigger picture either. The war between the U.S. and Iran has not cooled down as President Trump called off the ceasefire last week. That has taken a bit of the edge off markets overall.
Traders are still unsure but not as nervous as they were a few weeks ago. If Bitcoin holds steady and money keeps flowing back into crypto, XRP should ride that wave too, just like everything else.
Related XRP News: XRP Price News: On-Chain Activity Hits Rare Lows
XRP Price Forecast: Targets for This Week
If things go right
XRP is holding above $1.08–$1.10. Money is flowing back into ETFs, and buyers like what Ripple is doing in Europe. That could push it toward $1.15 next. If it breaks that, $1.18 is the next stop. And if that gives way, $1.20 is in sight.
What’s most likely
Another week, same story for the XRP price. It’s stuck between $1.08 and $1.15, going nowhere fast. The chart is flat, the indicators are in the middle, and nobody’s making big moves. Everyone’s just waiting, for a new regulation, a big institution to jump in, or something else that gives them a reason to act.
If things go wrong
If the XRP price drops below $1.08, sellers might drive it down to $1.05. Break that, and $1.00 comes into play, especially if ETF money keeps leaving, the network stays quiet, or Bitcoin takes another hit.
Frequently Asked Questions.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
