Silver price is trading at $64.52 as a correction puts the metal under pressure. Silver plunged as Shanghai opened, with the move accelerating around 9 PM ET on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, spot silver price was down about 3.15%, adding to pressure from a stronger US dollar and a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.
The dollar climbed to a two-month high, making metals more expensive for overseas buyers, after the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and left the door open to another hike.
Still, the timing around Shanghai does not prove Chinese traders caused the selloff. It gives us a backdrop for examining a question: has silver’s correction weakened its structure, or is it testing an important level?
What you'll learn 👉
Silver Price Meets a Major Trendline After a Huge Move
The chart from Tavi Costa looks at the silver price relative to US M2 money supply, rather than measuring silver in nominal dollar terms. That distinction matters because the amount of money in the US economy has grown substantially over decades. US M2 stood at about $23.28 trillion in August 2026, compared with roughly $22.09 trillion in August 2025 and $21.54 trillion in January 2025.
Silver adjusted for money supply.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 23, 2026
What a great chart that tells the silver story incredibly well.
A breakout with authority earlier this year, followed by a move from euphoria back to neglect as silver corrected toward former resistance, which has now become major support.
The… pic.twitter.com/ssrjJD48m2
Costa’s chart divides the silver price by US M2 and tracks the ratio from the 1970s through 2026. The result gives a very different picture from a standard silver-price chart.
The yellow descending trendline connects major peaks from the late 1970s and the 2011 silver cycle. Silver reached a London Fix high of $49.45 per ounce in January 1980 and $48.70 in April 2011.
The important point is that the present silver price can be above those old nominal highs without the silver-to-M2 ratio reaching the same extreme. More dollars and deposits exist in the economy today, so comparing the metal against money supply changes the historical perspective.
Why the $64.52 Silver Price Correction Matters
The latest move has taken the silver price back toward the yellow trendline shown on Costa’s chart. His interpretation is that the area around the trendline could represent former resistance turning into support.
That idea comes directly from the structure visible on the chart. The ratio reached a major peak around 1980, declined for decades, then climbed toward the same descending trendline around 2011. The ratio fell again after that peak before recovering into the 2025-26 area.
This makes the present correction worth watching. If the ratio holds around the trendline, the chart provides a technical case for treating the area as potential support. If it breaks decisively below it, the historical structure would look different and traders would have to reassess the level.
The silver price also has fundamental support from a market that the Silver Institute expects to remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026. Its forecast puts the 2026 deficit at 67 million ounces, even with total supply projected to increase 1.5%.
Related Silver News: Here’s Where Gold and Silver Prices Might be Headed This Week
Fed Pressure Is Testing Silver Price
The immediate pressure is easier to explain through macroeconomic data. The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16. Fed officials have also maintained that inflation remains too high, keeping the possibility of another rate increase on the table.
The dollar reached a two-month high on Tuesday, with the DXY index touching 100.66 before easing. A stronger dollar and higher interest rates can pressure non-yielding metals such as silver.
That leaves the silver price caught between short-term macro pressure and a longer historical structure that Costa argues remains intact. The key question from here is whether the silver-to-M2 ratio can defend the trendline. If it does, the correction could become a test of support rather than evidence that the broader structure has failed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
