Ripple’s XRP and Stellar are entering an imperative period with both payment-focused cryptocurrencies facing different catalysts. The XRP price is down 0.72% to $1.39, with regulatory uncertainty ahead of the U.S. Senate vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act adding pressure.
XLM, however, is up 0.98% at $0.192 as traders anticipate a major network upgrade, giving it some relative strength for now. That resilience could disappear if the XRP price loses the psychological $1 level, since both assets have historically moved in similar directions during major market cycles.
With XRP and XLM sharing roots, payment-focused use cases and overlapping investor groups, the key question is how far the XLM price could fall if XRP breaks below $1.
What you'll learn 👉
How Closely Have XRP and XLM Prices Moved Together?
The historical relationship between XRP and XLM is clear during major market cycles. Both remained relatively subdued through much of April-November 2024 before breaking higher around November and December, with XRP later reaching major peaks in December 2024/January 2025 and July 2025, and XLM following a similar pattern.
Both then entered a prolonged decline after their July 2025 peaks, showing how closely payment-focused altcoins can respond to the same market conditions.
Their shorter-term movements have also been similar, with consolidation periods, rallies and declines appearing around the same periods. The relationship has never been perfectly equal, though. XRP had a stronger upside run, moving from roughly $0.60 to almost $3.80, whereas XLM gained about six times from its 2024 lows.
The connection also comes from their fundamentals. Jed McCaleb was involved in the early development of both projects, and both networks target fast, low-cost cross-border transactions and digital asset issuance. That common narrative means traders can treat XRP and XLM as part of the same payment-coin basket, making heavy XRP selling a potential risk for the Stellar price.
What Could Send XRP Price Below $1?
The first risk is weaker demand for XRP itself. RLUSD circulation has reached about $2.4 billion, with more than $1 billion on the XRP Ledger, giving institutions a dollar-denominated settlement option that avoids XRP’s volatility.
Also, implied odds for the CLARITY Act passing have fallen from 30% to 18%, increasing regulatory uncertainty around XRP.
Institutional demand is another concern. XRP-linked investment products recorded only about $27 million in net inflows, a 54% monthly decline. That comes during a broader period of weaker crypto fund demand, with Bitcoin ETFs recording about $462.7 million in weekly outflows. If institutional buying continues to weaken, the XRP price could lose the $1 level more easily.
Macro conditions could make the decline worse. A hawkish Federal Reserve, high interest rates and a Bitcoin breakdown below major support could trigger broader altcoin selling. XRP also has additional ecosystem-security concerns tied to the need for quantum-resistant cryptography, although that remains a longer-term risk rather than a direct catalyst for an immediate move below $1.
Here’s Where XLM Price Could Go If XRP Falls Below $1
Using the present XRP price of $1.39 and XLM price of $0.192, three scenarios stand out.
In a mild XRP crash, XRP falls to $0.95, a 31.7% decline. If XLM records a similar percentage loss, the XLM price would fall to about $0.131. If XLM maintains some of its present relative strength, the downside could be closer to $0.14-$0.16.
In a base-case sell-off, Ripple’s XRP price drops to $0.85, representing a 38.8% decline. Applying the same move to XLM gives approximately $0.118. A weaker XLM response could keep the XLM price around $0.13-$0.15, but stronger correlation could push it toward $0.10-$0.12.
In a severe crypto-market sell-off, XRP could fall toward $0.75, a 46% decline from $1.39. A matching decline would put the XLM price near $0.104, with a high-beta move potentially taking XLM toward $0.08-$0.09.
Related Stellar News: Here’s the Stellar (XLM) Price if XRP Reaches $6
Could XLM Hold Up Better Than XRP?
XLM has one clear advantage right now: relative strength. The XLM price is up 0.98% at $0.192 despite weakness across the broader market, and anticipation surrounding its network upgrade is providing a coin-specific catalyst.
If XRP falls because of regulatory problems specific to Ripple, XLM could outperform because its investment case is not tied directly to the CLARITY Act.
However, XLM cannot be assumed to remain immune to an XRP collapse. Its payment-coin identity, shared history with XRP and similar investor base can create selling pressure if traders reduce exposure to the entire category. A broad crypto liquidation would also matter more than any individual network upgrade.
Our XLM Price Outlook in an XRP Crash Scenario
The most reasonable base range is $0.11-$0.14 if XRP falls modestly below $1 and broader crypto conditions remain controlled. A deeper market-wide sell-off could push the XLM price toward $0.08-$0.10, especially if Bitcoin also loses major support.
The bullish scenario for XLM would be different: XRP falls below $1 because of XRP-specific regulatory pressure, but XLM continues to benefit from its network upgrade and maintains its present relative strength.
In that case, the XLM price could hold above $0.15, making the $0.13 area the key level to watch in the initial XRP-crash scenario.
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