EUR/USD is trading near 1.12 after another leg lower, but analyst Daniel Carter believes the pair may be approaching an area where buyers could attempt a recovery.
His TradingView chart is titled “EURUSD Bearish Pullback Toward Key Support & Potential Recovery,” and that captures the setup well.
The broader trend is still bearish, but EUR/USD price has now moved into a demand zone that previously attracted buyers. Carter’s chart therefore does not call for an immediate reversal. It maps a scenario where EUR/USD first holds support, confirms a change in character, and only then begins a larger rebound.
What you'll learn 👉
Daniel Carter’s EUR/USD Chart Shows a Critical Demand Zone
The most important area on the chart is the blue demand zone around roughly 1.11-1.115.
EUR/USD has already dropped into this region after breaking a series of short-term support levels during October.
Carter’s chart also marks a recent weak low near the bottom of that demand zone.
This is important because the bullish scenario depends on price defending that area.
The chart notes that if demand holds and EUR/USD confirms a bullish change of character, a recovery toward 1.1240-1.1270 becomes possible.
That is the first upside zone I would watch as well.
There is then another resistance area around 1.1450-1.1500.
Above that, Carter marks a larger resistance band around 1.16-1.17, which also aligns with a descending trendline that has capped EUR/USD for months.
The chart therefore maps a clear progression:
1.11 support holds → 1.1240-1.1270 → 1.1450-1.1500 → 1.16-1.17.
The broader bearish structure does not disappear unless EUR/USD starts reclaiming these levels.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: What Would Confirm or Invalidate the Rebound?
The current price near 1.12 is still below several broken support areas.
That means the pair has not confirmed a reversal yet.
The first bullish signal would be a clear reaction from the demand zone followed by a higher low and a move back above roughly 1.1240-1.1270.
If that happens, the recovery scenario becomes more credible.
The stronger confirmation would come above 1.1450-1.1500.
A break through that region would suggest EUR/USD is no longer simply producing a relief bounce inside a broader downtrend.
The bearish scenario is simpler.
If the 1.11 demand zone fails cleanly, the chart loses its main bullish foundation.
That would leave EUR/USD vulnerable to another leg lower, with the market needing to establish a new support area beneath the current range.
So the setup is not “EUR/USD has bottomed.”
It is “EUR/USD is testing the area where a bottom could begin to form.”
Macro Factors That Could Move EUR/USD Next
The macro backdrop still favors the dollar more than the euro.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at its October 28 meeting, but economists still broadly expect another increase in December. Persistent inflation and expensive energy continue to support that higher-for-longer outlook.
The euro has its own problems.
French fiscal and political stress has pushed French borrowing costs higher relative to Germany, creating additional pressure on the single currency. EUR/USD recently traded near 1.119 as investors focused on widening French bond spreads and political uncertainty.
The ECB also meets next week and is expected to hold rates steady, but the euro area is dealing with weaker growth momentum and slower business activity.
That means EUR/USD enters the weekend with a fairly clear macro imbalance:
- The Fed remains relatively hawkish
- U.S. rates remain higher than euro-area rates
- French fiscal risk is hurting the euro
- Euro-area growth remains soft
- Both the Fed and ECB decisions arrive next week
From a macro perspective, that makes a large sustained EUR/USD rally harder to justify immediately.
From a technical perspective, however, the pair is now close enough to Carter’s demand zone that a short-term recovery attempt would not be surprising.
For now, I would watch 1.11 on the downside and 1.1240-1.1270 on the upside.
A defense of 1.11 keeps the rebound scenario alive.
A break below it would tell us the bearish move still has more room.
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