XRP price is trading around $1.45 after recovering from its recent lows, but analyst Maelius believes the bigger move may still be ahead. His latest long-term analysis argues that XRP may have only recently completed a major corrective phase, potentially opening the door to a rally that extends well into 2027.
What makes his analysis different from a typical bullish price prediction is that Maelius is also discussing when holders should consider selling. His framework puts $10 in play during the next major wave, while an extremely bullish combination of crypto market growth and XRP dominance produces an upper-end scenario near $37.
Yet Maelius explicitly cautions holders against simply waiting for either number. His approach is to gradually take profits as XRP moves higher rather than trying to identify the exact cycle top.
What you'll learn 👉
Maelius Thinks XRP Has Just Completed a Major Wave 2
The foundation of Maelius’ thesis is Elliott Wave theory. He believes XRP has completed a large corrective Wave 2 and could now be preparing for Wave 3, which is typically considered the strongest impulsive portion of a five-wave structure.
His interpretation has changed because XRP’s latest correction lasted longer and went deeper than he initially expected. Rather than making him more bearish, this caused him to reconsider how the entire structure since the previous cycles should be counted.
In particular, Maelius doesn’t consider XRP’s 2020–2021 advance to be a valid macro Wave 1 because he views that period’s price action as corrective rather than impulsive. The latest decline also entered territory that would create problems for an alternative Elliott Wave count because, under standard Elliott Wave rules, Wave 4 cannot overlap Wave 1 in a conventional impulse.
Put simply, his preferred count now places XRP earlier in its long-term bullish structure than previously thought. If correct, the strongest portion of the advance hasn’t happened yet. Maelius expects this proposed Wave 3 to continue well into 2027.
His XRP Chart Maps a Potential Move Above $10
The weekly chart provides a visual representation of that thesis.
XRP’s enormous 2017 rally is labeled as the first major five-wave advance. What followed between 2018 and 2024 is treated largely as a prolonged corrective and accumulation period. Importantly, the 2021 rally failed to establish a new all-time high, supporting Maelius’ argument that it shouldn’t necessarily be treated as the beginning of a completely new impulsive cycle.
The chart then shows XRP breaking out of that multi-year accumulation structure in late 2024 and eventually moving above $3. The subsequent decline toward approximately $1 is labeled as macro Wave 2. XRP has since recovered to around $1.45, while the weekly RSI at the bottom of his chart also appears to have broken above a descending resistance line.
From here, Maelius maps a five-wave Wave 3 structure extending through 2027. His chart places a notable objective around $10.07 before a Wave 4 correction and another eventual advance. As with any Elliott Wave count, however, this path is an interpretation rather than a predetermined sequence.
Why $10 Is Maelius’ More Conservative Target
Maelius arrives at $10 by comparing the potential size of Wave 3 with Wave 1.
One core Elliott Wave rule is that Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 in an impulse. Wave 3 is also frequently the strongest portion of an Elliott Wave advance, although that tendency does not mean every Wave 3 must produce an enormous rally.
Under Maelius’ preferred count, assuming the upcoming Wave 3 roughly matches the magnitude of Wave 1 would take XRP to at least around $10. Importantly, he doesn’t view $10 as the final bull-market top. It is his proposed Wave 3 objective within a larger structure.
From roughly $1.45, reaching $10 would require XRP to rise nearly 590%. That alone illustrates how bullish the forecast is and why the assumptions behind the Elliott Wave count matter so much.
Read also: CLARITY Act Gets Big Update as Pro-Ripple Lawyer Points to a Potential XRP Win
Could XRP Really Reach $37?
Maelius’ $37 scenario is considerably more speculative.
Instead of deriving it purely from XRP’s chart, he combines two assumptions: total crypto market capitalization eventually reaching approximately $18 trillion and XRP dominance climbing toward roughly 13%.
If the entire crypto market were worth $18 trillion and XRP represented 13% of it, XRP’s implied market capitalization would be approximately $2.34 trillion. Using a circulating supply around the low-60-billion range would mathematically put XRP somewhere in the high-$30s, broadly consistent with his $37 estimate.
But both conditions would need to occur together. An $18 trillion crypto market would represent enormous expansion from current levels, while 13% XRP dominance would require XRP to capture a much larger portion of the market. Maelius himself calls $37 something close to his absolute maximum Wave 3 scenario rather than a level investors should assume will be reached.
So, When Does Maelius Think XRP Holders Should Sell?
Interestingly, the most practical part of his analysis isn’t the $10 or $37 target.
Maelius explicitly advises against holding an entire position while waiting for one enormous number. Instead, he favors gradually selling portions of an XRP position as price rises. In his framework, profit-taking should begin before XRP reaches $10.
His final exit signal would involve XRP dominance rather than XRP price alone. Maelius is watching for XRP’s share of the overall crypto market to potentially reach a long-term supply zone beginning around 13%. If dominance reaches that region, he argues it could indicate XRP is approaching its relative peak or is about to begin underperforming the broader market.
That makes his strategy fundamentally different from saying “sell XRP at $37.” His $37 figure represents an optimistic ceiling produced by several assumptions. His actual strategy is to take profits progressively on the way up and potentially exit the remaining position if XRP dominance reaches his long-term supply region.
The entire outlook depends on Maelius’ Elliott Wave count remaining valid, and there is no guarantee XRP reaches $10, much less $37. But if his macro interpretation is right, his central message is clear: the next major XRP rally could last longer than many holders expect, but waiting for the absolute top may be the riskiest way to trade it.
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