Solana price has delivered a strong recovery from its recent lows, but the strength of that move may hide a less bullish structure underneath. SOL climbed from around $77 to nearly $87 yesterday, putting an important resistance level back within reach after a difficult period for the token.
Veteran financial trader Matthew Dixon believes the recovery deserves some caution. His Elliott Wave analysis indicates that SOL could still be inside a corrective rally instead of beginning a fresh bullish impulse. That distinction matters because the current advance could eventually give way to another move lower if his interpretation proves correct.
Solana’s short term indicators provide another reason to examine that possibility. RSI has already entered deeply overbought territory, even though other momentum indicators remain positive.
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Matthew Dixon Says Solana Price Rally Looks Corrective Despite Its Strength
Matthew Dixon explained that the internal structure of Solana’s current recovery does not resemble the clean 5-wave advance he would expect from a new bullish Elliott Wave impulse.
The key issue in his analysis is overlap between the waves.
A normal bullish impulse usually develops through a recognizable 5 wave structure. Dixon instead favors a 3 wave corrective interpretation for the current Solana price recovery.
That means the rally could represent an A, B, C correction inside a broader bearish structure.
The strength of the latest SOL move does not invalidate that interpretation. Dixon explained that C waves can become extremely powerful and resemble bullish impulses during their development.
His analysis therefore focuses on several important factors:
- SOL’s internal structure contains overlap that weakens the 5 wave bullish interpretation.
- Dixon currently favors a 3 wave corrective structure for the recovery.
- A strong C wave can look extremely bullish before the correction ends.
- Solana RSI has moved into overbought territory.
- SOL price is getting closer to upper Fibonacci targets identified in his analysis.
Dixon summarized his view with a simple message: “Structure over excitement.”
Solana Could Face Another Impulsive Drop After The Corrective Rally Ends
Dixon’s analysis becomes particularly important when considering what could happen after the current Solana price advance reaches completion.
His Elliott Wave interpretation leaves room for another impulsive move lower. Such a decline could potentially retrace the entire corrective advance if the current structure develops as expected.
That possibility would mean SOL’s recovery from around $77 should not automatically be treated as confirmation that a durable bottom has formed.
Solana’s overbought RSI also deserves attention here. Strong RSI readings can remain elevated during powerful rallies, so an overbought reading does not automatically mean price must reverse immediately.
However, an extreme RSI reading combined with upper Fibonacci targets and a potentially corrective Elliott Wave structure creates a more complicated picture.
SOL could therefore continue higher before Dixon’s bearish scenario becomes relevant. The important question is whether the current advance eventually develops into a convincing bullish impulse or completes the 3 wave structure he currently favors.
Solana Price Recently Climbed 13% As SOL Tested The $87 Resistance
An earlier analysis today examined the short term Solana price outlook and the levels that could determine its next move.
SOL climbed roughly 13% yesterday from around $77 to a high near $87. Solana later gave back part of that advance but still closed close to $85.
The $87 area now represents the immediate level to watch.
A break above $87 could open the path toward $93 if buyers maintain control. Failure to clear that resistance could keep Solana price between approximately $83.20 and $87.
The bearish short term scenario begins to become more relevant below $83. A sustained move beneath that area could send SOL back toward approximately $78.
Those levels create a useful framework for comparing the immediate Solana price outlook.
| Scenario | Important Level | Possible SOL Price Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish | SOL breaks above $87 | Price could extend toward $93 |
| Neutral | SOL remains below $87 but above $83.20 | Price could remain between $83.20 and $87 |
| Bearish | SOL loses $83 support | Price could return toward $78 |
Dixon’s broader Elliott Wave warning does not necessarily conflict with the possibility of SOL reaching $93 first. A corrective C wave can continue higher before completing, which means another push upward could still fit his interpretation.
Solana RSI Reaching 85 Adds Weight To The Correction Risk
A look at Solana’s 5 hour indicators shows that momentum remains strongly positive, although RSI provides a clear warning.
RSI(14) currently stands at 85.299. That places SOL deep inside overbought territory after its rapid recovery.
STOCH(9,6) remains at 59.241, which supports continued short term strength without reaching an extreme reading. MACD(12,26) stands at 2.116 and remains positive.
Bull/Bear Power(13) also comes in at 9.636, which shows buyers currently maintain an advantage.
| Indicator | Value | Current Reading |
|---|---|---|
| RSI(14) | 85.299 | Deeply overbought |
| STOCH(9,6) | 59.241 | Short term strength remains intact |
| MACD(12,26) | 2.116 | Positive momentum remains present |
| Bull/Bear Power(13) | 9.636 | Buyers currently maintain control |
RSI is particularly relevant because Dixon independently identified the overbought condition as part of his Elliott Wave analysis. Solana price therefore enters an interesting stage after its recovery from $77.
The immediate setup still gives buyers opportunities. A clean move beyond $87 could take SOL toward $93, and several short term indicators remain supportive.
Dixon’s analysis provides the larger warning. The veteran trader does not currently view the rally as convincing evidence of a fresh bullish impulse. His preferred 3 wave interpretation leaves open the possibility that SOL eventually gives back much of its recent recovery.
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