Kaspa is down 1.60% today, trading around $0.0284. But this drop isn’t really about Kaspa. It’s about the Bitcoin price falling 1.16% and dragging everything down with it. Same story as the rest of the market, U.S. and Iran tensions, oil prices climbing, inflation fears, and investors bailing on risky stuff.
But here’s where it gets interesting. Look at what’s happening on Kaspa’s network. Over 82% of all Kaspa in circulation hasn’t moved in three months or more. That’s the highest percentage ever. People are holding, not selling. And network volatility just dropped to one of the lowest levels on record.
When you get that kind of quiet, locked-up supply and shrinking volatility, it’s the kind of setup that traders pay attention to. It doesn’t mean a big move is coming for sure. But it means the conditions are there, and when things get this still, they tend to break one way or the other.
What you'll learn 👉
Why 82% of Kaspa’s Supply Has Stopped Moving
New data shared by Kaspa Daily shows that over 82% of all circulating KAS has remained untouched for at least three months, leaving less than one-fifth of the supply actively changing hands.
Even more interesting, that dormant supply has continued climbing for more than a year, with every correction leaving a larger percentage of coins inactive than before.
Over 82% of Kaspa's circulating supply hasn't moved in 3 months or more, an all-time high for the metric.
— Kaspa Daily (@DailyKaspa) July 13, 2026
That leaves less than a fifth of all KAS changing hands over the past quarter. The inactive share has been grinding higher for over a year, with each pullback shallower than… pic.twitter.com/NT3WyIwgkv
This matters because fewer coins moving around means less liquid supply available on exchanges. If buying demand returns, sellers may struggle to meet that demand, allowing the Kaspa price to react much more aggressively than it would in a market with abundant circulating liquidity.
It also points to growing conviction among long-term holders despite the weak price performance over the past several months.
Kaspa Volatility Has Fallen to Record Lows – Why That Matters
Another metric attracting attention is Kaspa’s 30-day rolling volatility, which has dropped to 55.2%, well below its historical average of 104.1% and far from its previous peak of 191.9%.
Kaspa's 30-day rolling volatility has fallen to just 55%, one of the lowest readings ever recorded for the network.
— Kaspa Daily (@DailyKaspa) July 12, 2026
Historically, volatility compression doesn't last forever. The longer it persists, the more closely traders tend to watch for a significant move once the range… pic.twitter.com/F9SFbt3W7J
Periods like this rarely last forever. Markets typically alternate between expansion and contraction, and extended volatility compression often ends with a decisive breakout in either direction.
Combined with record-high dormant supply, the setup leaves the KAS price at an interesting point where a strong catalyst could trigger a much larger move than traders have seen in recent months.
What’s Driving the Kaspa Price Right Now?
Kaspa also keeps getting noticed for what it is, not just what it’s trading at. People in the space call it one of the stronger Layer-1 projects for the rest of this year. The BlockDAG tech is solid. The Crescendo and Toccata upgrades worked. Developers keep building.
All that makes the project stronger underneath. But the price hasn’t caught up yet. That’s how it goes sometimes, the foundation gets laid calmly, and the market figures it out later. Or it doesn’t. But the pieces are there.
Tokenomics also remains positive. About 95.4% of Kaspa’s maximum 28.7 billion supply is already circulating, and its Chromatic Phase emission schedule continues reducing new issuance every month. That creates increasing scarcity over time.
Still, miner selling remains a short-term headwind as operators continue selling part of their rewards to cover operating costs.
Another catalyst traders are watching is the planned DAGKnight consensus upgrade, expected during Q3 2026. This upgrade swaps out the old GHOSTDAG consensus for something faster, more responsive, and tighter on security.
If it goes well, people will trust the network more. But anytime you mess with the core code of a blockchain, there’s always a chance something breaks. No matter how careful you are.
Related Kaspa News: Best Time to Buy Kaspa? Analysts Update KAS Price Targets After the Tocatta Upgrade
Here’s What the Kaspa Chart Is Showing
We had a look at the KAS chart, and buyers remain on the defensive after failing to hold above $0.0315 earlier this month. Since then, the market has produced a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, bringing KAS back toward the important $0.0280 support zone where buyers are trying to stabilize the decline.
The indicators say be careful. RSI is at 34.1. That’s getting close to oversold, but there’s no real bounce yet. MACD is still below its signal line, and the red bars keep printing. So the selling pressure hasn’t completely gone away.
But here’s something worth noting, the selling does seem to be slowing down around these levels.
If buyers can defend $0.0280, we could see another push toward $0.0295, maybe even $0.0305. But if that support cracks, $0.0270 is next. And that’s where you’d expect stronger buying interest to show up.
Kaspa Price Prediction: Where Could KAS Go Next?
If buyers can push Kaspa back above $0.0295, that changes things. $0.0305 comes next. And if Bitcoin holds steady and people keep holding their coins instead of selling, $0.0315 could be the next stop after that.
Most likely though, the KAS price stays stuck between $0.0280 and $0.0295 for a while. Everyone’s waiting on the next economic numbers and some clear sign that volatility is about to pick back up.
The bad news is if $0.0280 breaks and it’s not a fakeout. Then you’re looking at $0.0270. And if Bitcoin keeps sliding, Kaspa could go lower from there.
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