Bitcoin is moving into one of the most important macro events of 2026; the September meeting of the Federal Reserve. It has become a focus for traders because any interest rate decision has an impact on liquidity, and consequently, on risk assets like Bitcoin.
This particular situation is very interesting, as the markets do not anticipate any rate cuts. Indeed, according to a Polymarket contract, there was a probability of 60% of a rate hike by 25 basis points during the September 16th meeting of the FOMC, 39% of no changes, and 2% of rate cuts. In turn, the Kalshi community saw chances of a Fed rate increase at 68%.
What you'll learn 👉
Why Fed Rate Cuts Matter for Crypto
Lowering the rate by the Fed means reducing its base interest rate. Lower cost of borrowing means more cash is available for circulation in the economy and markets. In the case of Bitcoin, it means increased willingness to take risks in assets. Investors usually seek high gains if cash and treasury instruments yield less, and cryptocurrency markets can be part of those efforts.
However, it does not necessarily mean that it works that way automatically. In the case when the cut is expected, it would not make much difference. In the case when the cut occurs amid rapid economic decline, it does not mean that investors cannot sell risky assets.
Another thing worth remembering is that Bitcoin often reacts before the Fed actually moves. Traders watch inflation reports, employment data, and Fed speeches for clues, so expectations can change weeks ahead of the meeting. If the market starts believing a cut is coming, the Bitcoin price may begin moving higher before policymakers announce anything.
Read Also: ChatGPT Predicts the XRP Price If Bitcoin Reclaims $80,000 in 2026
How Bitcoin Has Reacted to Recent Fed Meetings
The recent pattern has leaned bearish in the short term. Analyst Ardi reviewed the last year of FOMC reactions and found that eight of the last nine meetings were followed by a noticeable Bitcoin sell-off, with an average decline of roughly 10% during the following week.
The July meeting was a good example. Before the news release, the Bitcoin rate was around $66,000, and after that, it fell by 12%, reaching $58,000. An exception was in May when the Bitcoin rate went up by 5%. That history is why many traders are treating the September meeting as a volatility event even before the Fed says a word.
Bitcoin’s Current Chart Analysis
We analyzed the Bitcoin chart, and the big picture is that it remains an attempt to bounce back from a massive correction.
Bitcoin is now trading between $62,900-$64,600, which comes following a drop from a November 2025 high of around $140,000. This amounts to roughly a 55% fall from the top seen on the chart. The bigger trend remains a lower highs/lower lows setup.
Momentum is improving, though. The daily RSI is around 44.8, which is still below the neutral 50 level, but it has been making higher lows since the December bottom. That usually points to selling pressure starting to fade even though price remains weak.
The support area I am watching most closely is $62,300-$60,000. Below that, $55,000 becomes the next major zone. On the upside, the first real hurdle is $70,000, followed by $80,000 and then $90,000.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: What a September Rate Cut Could Mean
In case the Fed surprises the market with a cut in the rates by 25 basis points in September, I believe the Bitcoin price would respond positively due to the current market expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Fed, rather than a dovish one.
The main target in such a scenario would be to return to the $70,000 level first. In case buyers can breach this level with solid volume, the next level will be seen at the $78,000-$82,000 range, which will return the Bitcoin price to the popular $80,000 level.
A hold policy will continue keeping the Bitcoin price between the $60,000-$70,000 range for longer. A surprise hike will be the most negative scenario and might drag the Bitcoin price down towards the $60,000 or even to the mid-$50,000 levels.
My takeaway is that a September cut matters less because cuts are automatically bullish and more because traders are not fully expecting one. If the Fed delivers easier policy against a hawkish backdrop, the Bitcoin price could finally get the catalyst it needs to challenge $80,000 again.
FAQs
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
