Bitcoin Price News Today: ETFs End 8-Week Outflow Streak, But Analysts Predict More Downside
Bitcoin price dipped below $63,000 today after crashing 1.8% to open the new week. The token is currently trading near $62,800 at press time, breaking below the $63,000 level that had been acting as support over the weekend.
I’ve been following the market thoroughly, and there is currently a debate in the crypto community whether we’ve seen the bottom in this bear market or not yet. I am leaning towards no.
Let us dig into Bitcoin price news today.
What you'll learn 👉
Bitcoin News: ETF Flows Turn Positive – But the $8 Billion Gap Remains
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $197 million in net inflows during the week ending July 10, snapping an eight-week streak of consecutive outflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs also had $84.42 million in net inflows, ending their own eight-week outflow streak.
But the numbers tell a more cautious story. During the prior eight weeks, investors removed roughly $8.26 billion from Bitcoin ETFs. The $197 million inflow recovers only about 2.4% of those losses. That is a real change, but it comes after a massive drain.
The weekly flow pattern was also uneven. Bitcoin ETFs opened with $265.7 million in net inflows on Monday, then slowed to $21.5 million on Tuesday. Combined withdrawals reached about $180.2 million across Wednesday and Thursday. Friday’s $90.4 million inflow kept the weekly result positive.
BlackRock’s IBIT led with $291.9 million in weekly inflows. That amount exceeded the category’s final net gain. Grayscale’s GBTC lost roughly $108.2 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC shed about $93.4 million. The concentration shows that demand did not improve across every product. Investors favored selected funds while reducing exposure elsewhere.
Trading activity remained weak. Weekly Bitcoin ETF volume reached about $84.1 billion, the lowest normal five-day total since October 2025.
Long-Term Holder Supply Hits 84% – A Measure of Conviction
Crypto analyst Joao Wedson shared an interesting take on Bitcoin’s supply structure. Long-Term Holder Supply is now 5.2 times larger than Short-Term Holder Supply – one of the clearest signs of long-term investor conviction. Short-Term Holder Supply has fallen to its lowest level since 2016.
Current share of Bitcoin’s total supply:
- Long-Term Holders: 84%
- Short-Term Holders: 16%
This means that most of the circulating supply is currently held by investors with a longer time horizon, while the amount controlled by short-term participants has become historically limited.
The attached Alphractal chart shows the LTH/STH Supply Ratio rising steadily. The ratio currently sits above 5.0 , a level not seen in years. The STH supply line has dropped sharply, confirming that short-term traders have been exiting the market.
Wedson’s point is worth considering: the more Bitcoin moves into the hands of long-term holders, the less supply tends to be immediately available for sale. If demand strengthens while this structure remains intact, the market may become increasingly sensitive to new capital inflows.
Mr. Wall Street: Bitcoin Is Preparing to Break Below the Weekly MA200
While the LTH data is bullish, not everyone shares that optimism. Analyst Mr. Wall Street expects Bitcoin to move lower.
He noted that Bitcoin continues to trade inside the 57-67k range , and he expects this sideways movement to continue until the next move down begins. He does not disregard a deviation above the range highs to sweep external liquidity sitting above 67k. For that reason, he has short orders placed in the 68-70k region.
His macro picture remains bearish:
“The selling pressure that started after the 126k top is still here, and once the spot bids are no longer able to absorb the sell pressure, the Weekly MA200 will break. To me, this is only a matter of time.”
He targets the 53-55k region as his next downside target. This is where his take profit orders on shorts built in the 100-126k region, as well as additional shorts built in the 77-83k region, will start getting filled. As he closes his shorts, he will simultaneously start building his long-term Bitcoin spot positions.
His warning is sobering: “Remember that the final stage of every bear market is capitulation. Many investors who bought above 100k expecting ETFs to send Bitcoin much higher are now selling with massive losses, and this is only the beginning. There are still many weak hands left to shake out before the bull market starts. Until they are finally flushed out, I expect prices to continue moving lower.”
Read also: Could XRP and XLM Replace Bitcoin? Catherine Austin Fitts Makes a Bold Prediction
Bitcoin Chart Analysis: The Weekly MA200 Is Under Pressure
Bitcoin recorded its first weekly close below the 200-week moving average since October 2023 in June 2026. That is a big technical development. The 200-week MA has been a reliable support level throughout Bitcoin’s history. A sustained break below it could signal prolonged consolidation or a deeper retracement.
The Alphractal chart shared by Wedson also shows Bitcoin trading near $64,000 with the LTH/STH ratio at record highs. This divergence between strong holder conviction and weak price action is worth watching.
My Take: More Downside Likely Before the Bottom
I agree with Mr. Wall Street’s assessment. The ETF inflow is a positive development, but it is too small to signal a trend reversal. $8.26 billion left the category in eight weeks. $197 million came back in one week. That is not enough.
The LTH data shows strong conviction, which is bullish in the long term. But in the short term, it does not prevent further downside. Long-term holders are not selling, but they are not buying either.
With tensions in the Middle East, still-bad sentiment around crypto, and the hot summer months ahead, we might see a new bottom for the Bitcoin price soon. The 53-55k region that Mr. Wall Street targets aligns with Bitcoin’s realized price near $53,000 and the levels flagged by other analysts.
The capitulation phase may not be over. Weak hands are still being shaken out. The bull market will return, but likely not until late 2026.
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