XRP price enters the final week of October under pressure after failing to hold its latest recovery.
The token briefly rallied toward $1.39 earlier this week, but that move was rejected and XRP has since slipped back toward $1.27-$1.28. The broader crypto market has also weakened as oil remains elevated, ETF flows turn mixed and traders prepare for the Federal Reserve’s October 28 meeting.
That makes the October 26-November 1 period especially important for XRP.
The chart is weak in the short term, but several indicators are approaching levels where a relief bounce becomes possible.
What you'll learn 👉
XRP Price Has Returned to a Key Support Area
I had a look at the Binance XRP/USDT two-hour chart, and the structure has clearly deteriorated since the recent peak near $1.66.
XRP is currently around $1.275 after trading as low as roughly $1.253 over the latest 24-hour period.
The most important short-term zone is therefore $1.25-$1.27.
That area has already attracted buyers several times since September, making it the clearest support on the current chart.
If XRP loses $1.25 decisively, the next downside area I would watch is around $1.20-$1.22.
On the upside, $1.30 becomes the first recovery level.
Above there, the XRP price would need to reclaim roughly $1.33-$1.35 before the chart begins looking materially healthier.
The larger resistance zone remains around $1.38-$1.40, where the latest rebound failed.
Indicators Show Weak Momentum, but Selling Is Getting Stretched
The indicators remain bearish overall.
Short RSI is around 34.6, the medium reading roughly 32.2 and the longer RSI near 37.1.
That places momentum close to oversold territory, particularly on the faster settings.
This is important because XRP is no longer falling from neutral momentum. Selling has already pushed the market into a much weaker technical condition, increasing the probability of a short-term rebound if support holds.
MACD remains negative.
The DIF is around -0.0135 versus DEA near -0.0114, with the histogram also below zero at approximately -0.0042.
That tells me sellers still control momentum.
CCI near -113.5 reinforces the same idea. XRP is weak, but increasingly stretched.
The positioning data is also interesting.
Net longs are around negative $328 million, with net shorts close to $398 million.
That leaves considerable bearish positioning in the market. If XRP begins moving back above $1.30-$1.33, some of those positions could start adding fuel to a recovery.
Read also: XRP Price Forecasted to Reach (Only) $1.80 This Year: Kalshi Traders
Several Events Could Move XRP Next Week
The technical setup matters, but next week also contains several important catalysts.
The Federal Reserve announces its next rate decision on October 28.
Crypto has been under pressure from high oil prices, restrictive financial conditions and uncertainty around another potential rate increase later this year. Brent has remained above $110, keeping inflation concerns elevated.
A more dovish Fed message would likely help Bitcoin and altcoins, including XRP.
A hawkish message could do the opposite.
XRP also has its own catalysts.
Ripple’s Swell conference runs from October 27 to 29 in New York, creating the possibility of new partnership or institutional announcements.
Spot XRP ETF flows have also started improving again. Recent data showed roughly $3.55 million of inflows on October 22, taking that week’s total to around $4.25 million before the final weekly print.
Then comes November 1, when another 1 billion XRP becomes eligible for release from Ripple’s escrow.
That does not mean all 1 billion tokens will immediately enter circulation, but the event can still affect sentiment around supply.
XRP Price Prediction for October 26-November 1
For me, the entire weekly setup revolves around whether XRP can defend $1.25.
If that level holds and macro conditions improve, a rebound toward $1.30-$1.35 looks realistic.
A stronger recovery above $1.35 would put $1.38-$1.40 back in play.
If $1.25 breaks, however, the chart opens the door toward $1.20-$1.22.
| Scenario | XRP price range |
|---|---|
| Bullish | $1.35-$1.42 |
| Base case | $1.24-$1.35 |
| Bearish | $1.18-$1.24 |
My base case for next week is XRP trading mostly between $1.24 and $1.35.
The indicators are weak enough that another decline cannot be ruled out, but RSI and CCI are also getting stretched enough to make a relief bounce increasingly plausible.
The most important levels are simple: $1.25 below and $1.35 above.
Whichever one breaks first could define XRP’s direction into early November.
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