XRP price is struggling alongside the broader crypto market today, with the token trading around $1.33 at press time, down roughly 2.7% over the past 24 hours. However, the latest decline has pushed XRP directly into an area that could determine whether the recent correction deepens—or becomes the foundation for another major rally.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez published a five-part analysis on X today asking a simple question: Can XRP rally to $2?
His argument centers on three factors. XRP is sitting inside a major on-chain support zone, spot XRP ETFs have continued attracting capital despite the price weakness, and the short-term chart is showing what Martinez identifies as a potential bullish flag.
The catch is that bulls still need to reclaim one important level: $1.38.
What you'll learn 👉
4.8 Billion XRP Makes $1.31-$1.38 a Critical Zone
The first part of Martinez’s bullish case comes from XRP’s on-chain supply distribution.
According to the data he shared, more than 4.8 billion XRP was previously acquired between $1.31 and $1.38. With XRP currently around $1.33, the token is trading directly inside that zone.
That makes the current price particularly interesting.
A large concentration of supply acquired around a certain price can sometimes act as support because many holders have a cost basis in that region. If buyers continue defending it, the market may establish a floor from which another recovery can develop.
Martinez had previously highlighted an even more concentrated area between $1.35 and $1.38, where approximately 3.2 billion XRP had changed hands according to the URPD data he referenced.
Importantly, URPD shouldn’t be confused with ordinary exchange trading volume. It estimates where the currently circulating supply last moved or was acquired, making it useful for identifying areas where a large amount of supply has a similar on-chain cost basis.
The broader $1.31-$1.38 zone is therefore the immediate battleground.
And XRP is testing it right now.
CAN XRP RALLY TO $2?
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) September 2, 2026
1/5 🧵👇
XRP Is Correcting After a 71.8% Rally
Today’s weakness also needs some context.
XRP previously rallied approximately 71.8% from $0.988 to $1.698 before entering its current correction. By the time Martinez initially highlighted the setup on August 29, XRP had already retraced around 20% from that high.
That changes how the current decline can be interpreted.
So far, the move can still be viewed as a correction following a substantial rally rather than definitive evidence that the entire bullish structure has failed.
But that argument becomes much weaker if XRP loses the support underneath it.
A sustained breakdown below $1.31 would mean the large demand area Martinez is watching has failed to hold, potentially forcing traders to reassess the bullish setup.
For now, however, XRP remains inside the zone.
Read also: 3 AI Models Predict XRP Price by the End of October
Spot XRP ETFs Add Another Bullish Factor
Martinez’s second argument comes from institutional demand.
According to the figures he shared, U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded approximately $105 million worth of net buying during the week of August 24, equivalent to roughly 73.2 million XRP.
What’s notable is that this buying occurred while XRP itself was correcting.
In other words, ETF demand has remained positive even though that demand hasn’t yet translated into stronger price performance.
That distinction matters.
ETF inflows don’t translate dollar-for-dollar into immediate XRP price appreciation. Existing holders can sell into that demand, while derivatives positioning, broader crypto sentiment and liquidity conditions can overwhelm ETF buying in the short term.
Still, continued ETF inflows during a correction are more constructive than seeing institutional demand disappear alongside falling prices.
Martinez therefore views those flows as another source of potential support.
The $1.38 Breakout Could Put $2 in Focus
The technical setup provides the final piece of Martinez’s argument.
On the hourly chart, he believes XRP is forming a bullish flag while testing support.
A bullish flag generally forms after a sharp upward move followed by a controlled downward or sideways consolidation. Traders watch these structures because a breakout above the upper boundary can signal continuation of the previous advance.
For XRP, Martinez identifies $1.38 as the important trigger.
He argues that an hourly close above $1.38 would confirm the breakout, potentially putting $2 into focus.
From XRP’s current price of approximately $1.33, reaching $2 would require a gain of roughly 50%.
That’s an ambitious short-term move, but it becomes less extreme when viewed against the 71.8% rally XRP recently produced from below $1.
Still, $2 should be treated as a conditional target rather than an expectation.
XRP first needs to stop falling, defend the $1.31-$1.38 demand region and then reclaim $1.38 convincingly.
Is the XRP Price Move Bulls Have Been Waiting For About to Begin?
There are several reasons for XRP bulls to pay attention to the current setup.
The token is directly on a large on-chain cost-basis cluster. ETF demand has remained positive during the correction. And Martinez sees a potential bullish continuation structure developing on the lower timeframe.
But there is an interesting contradiction in the setup: $1.38 is simultaneously part of the support region and the level XRP now needs to reclaim.
With XRP at $1.33, bulls haven’t confirmed anything yet.
That makes the next move particularly important.
If XRP can defend $1.31, recover through $1.38 and hold above it, the argument that the recent decline was simply a correction becomes considerably stronger. Under Martinez’s scenario, that would bring $2 into focus.
If $1.31 fails instead, the 4.8-billion-XRP support cluster would no longer be doing its job, and the bullish flag thesis would need to be reconsidered.
So despite today’s 2.7% decline, XRP may actually be approaching the most important part of its recent correction.
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