After hitting a weekly high of around $60,700, the BTC price corrected all the way down to below $58,000 yesterday. However, it appears that $58,000 is now acting as a support zone, considering it held firm and the Bitcoin price is now well above $58,600.
One of the elite crypto analysts, Rekt Capital, posted a viral video yesterday discussing where the next Bitcoin top could be, potentially around the $80,000 area.
What you'll learn 👉
The P Cycle Top Indicator: A Key to Predicting Bitcoin’s Bull Market Peaks
Rekt Capital’s analysis focuses on the P Cycle Top Indicator, a tool used to predict Bitcoin’s bull market peaks. Historically, when the two moving averages in this indicator cross over, it often signals the peak of a bull market.
So, with that in mind, when we might see the next bull market peak for Bitcoin, using data from the past and projecting possible future trends?
Currently, the two moving averages (111-day and 350-day) are diverging, which suggests that we are not close to a bull market peak. This divergence indicates that Bitcoin is far from reaching a bull market top anytime soon.
Projecting the Next Bitcoin Bull Market Peak
Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin tends to peak around 500 days after the halving event. Following this trend, the next peak is projected to occur in September 2025. For the market to hit this top, Bitcoin needs to experience an explosive price rally. Specifically, the 111-day moving average needs to incline from its current negative slope of 8 degrees to 35 degrees.
In past cycles, the Bitcoin price had to rally around 66% from a level like $28k to $45k to create this degree of incline. However, in the current cycle, since Bitcoin’s prices are higher, it might only require a 25-30% rally to push the moving average into an appropriate incline.
Key indicators to watch include the 111-day moving average support, which Bitcoin must first reclaim. Afterward, it needs to break the downtrend (which has persisted for around six months) to begin a meaningful upward rally. Once this breakout occurs, the BTC price could potentially reach new all-time highs, with the next bull market top potentially being just below $80k.
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Show more +It’s important to note that alternative scenarios exist. If the market rallies faster than expected, the peak could happen earlier, possibly by April 2025. However, this would require a much stronger rally, steeper inclines, and rapid Bitcoin price expansion. Conversely, consolidation and price pullbacks could slow the incline of the moving averages, potentially delaying the peak further.
Rekt Capital dismisses the idea that a bear market is starting, as bear markets usually occur after the two moving averages cross over, which hasn’t happened yet.
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