Solana price is at $71 as of today. The token peaked in January 2025 at around $294 – that is now over 70% above the current price. Solana price is doing horribly in this bear market, like most altcoins.
But one analyst just laid out a case that the pain may be structural, not just cyclical.
What you'll learn 👉
The Solana Price Math Nobody Is Doing
Analyst “cape” posted a viral thread breaking down why Solana may never make a new all‑time high. His argument is based on simple math.
SOL peaked at $260 in November 2021 with roughly 340 million tokens in circulation. Today, there are 580 million SOL circulating – that is 70% more supply than back then.
At $260 with today’s supply, Solana’s market cap would need to hit $150 billion. Back in November 2021, it was only $78 billion.
That means Solana needs almost double the capital inflow just to reach the same price it already hit with less supply.
The single biggest catalyst Solana ever had was Trump launching a memecoin – a one‑time event that cannot be repeated or topped. That event pushed SOL to its all‑time high of $294 in January 2025.
Nobody is doing the math on why Solana will likely never make a new ATH
— cape (@capexbt) June 27, 2026
– SOL peaked at $260 in November 2021 with roughly 340 million tokens in circulation
– Today there are 580 million SOL circulating. That’s 70% more supply than back then
– At $260 with today’s supply,… pic.twitter.com/yXidZmB7X4
Inflation is still running at 3.78% annually. More supply is being created and dumped on the market every day.
The conclusion: Solana needs to attract twice the money that created the last ATH just to print the same number on the chart – while the biggest possible catalyst already happened.
Solana News
Recent ETF flow data shows a divergence in investor sentiment. While spot ETFs for XRP and Hyperliquid (HYPE) attracted significant weekly inflows, Solana’s funds experienced a $3.8 million net outflow, aligning them with Bitcoin and Ethereum funds which saw major withdrawals. This occurred during a week where the total crypto market cap hit a yearly low.
This is Solana’s first monthly net outflow since its ETFs launched in October 2025 – a significant shift in institutional sentiment.
Moreover, Solana’s parent company, listed on Nasdaq as HSDT, completed an $8 million direct offering by selling Class A shares. The round was led by institutional investors Mirae Asset and HashKey Capital. Proceeds are earmarked for purchasing more SOL tokens and funding business operations.
This is a positive sign – the parent company is putting its money where its mouth is. But $8 million is a drop in the bucket compared to the billions in market cap needed to push SOL back toward its ATH.
Read also: ChatGPT Predicts Solana Price After Losing 40% of Its DeFi TVL
Where Could Solana Price Go From Here?
The math is brutal. Solana needs $150 billion in market cap to reach $260 again – almost double the $78 billion market cap from the 2021 peak.
Current market cap? With 580 million SOL at $71, that is roughly $41 billion. Solana would need to more than triple from current levels just to reach the 2021 peak price.
The bullish case: Tokenized stocks on Solana hit $10 billion in cumulative volume. The network still has the fastest settlement and lowest fees. If the broader crypto market recovers, SOL could rally. But a return to $260 would require institutional capital inflows on a scale never seen before.
The bearish case: The supply math does not lie. 70% more supply means 70% more capital needed for the same price. Inflation continues adding more supply. The Trump memecoin catalyst is gone. ETF outflows indicate institutions are losing interest.
The most realistic scenario: Solana will likely trade in a range between $60 and $100 for the foreseeable future. A break below $60 could send it toward the $40‑$50 zone. A break above $100 would require a major catalyst – and those are getting harder to find.
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