Crypto lawyer Jeremy Hogan laid out potential scenarios in the ongoing Ripple versus SEC legal battle following the recent denial of an early appeal. He analyzed timeframes and probabilities for each outcome.
Hogan assigns a 40% chance that the SEC proceeds to trial against the individual defendants, aiming to eventually appeal the judgment favoring Ripple. However, a loss at trial risks exposing the SEC’s overreach.
Even if the SEC won on appeal down the line, the case would likely return to court for further litigation. By Hogan’s estimation, the final resolution would stretch deep into 2027 under this path.
Alternatively, at 32% probability, the SEC could settle with the individuals, then move to finalize judgment against Ripple and appeal. While quicker, remedies in litigation could still consume most of 2026 before resolution.
At just 19% odds, Hogan sees the SEC settling entirely as less likely given its stubborn refusal to compromise so far. This path would provide the swiftest and cleanest conclusion.
In all scenarios, the current summary judgment favoring Ripple remains law until at least 2026. This gives Ripple concrete legal footing for years as proceedings play out.
Ultimately, Hogan believes the SEC positioned itself in a corner with no great options. The agency either settles on Ripple’s terms, risks humiliating defeat at trial, or pursues endless litigation, guaranteeing uncertainty for all parties.
While predicting the SEC’s strategy is speculative, Hogan makes a reasoned case that the agency lacks an expedient path to overturning the status quo.
Ripple, meanwhile, continues to benefit from the clarity that XRP is not an unlawful security, regardless of how long the appeals process drags out. According to Hogan’s assessment, a conclusive finish line remains distant.
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