“It’s the ‘Ethereum is dead’ stage of the cycle again,” tweeted crypto analyst Miles Deutscher. This narrative seems to resurface periodically, usually when Ethereum is experiencing slow price action. However, Deutscher argues that fading Ethereum would be unwise given its strong network effects and fundamentals.
Some of the key strengths Deutscher highlights include Ethereum having the largest developer ecosystem, funding, institutional credibility, users, TVL, transactions, decentralization, security, and deflationary issuance post-merge. “Fade it at your own peril,” he asserts.
The Bitcoin Spot ETF Narrative
Crypto investment firm Layergg echoes Deutscher’s optimism on Ethereum. They draw parallels between the current “ETH is dead” narrative and the “NFT is dead” narrative last July.
Layergg believes Ethereum stands to benefit from an anticipated Bitcoin Spot ETF approval in early 2023. “The project expected to benefit the most from the Bitcoin ETF approval is $ETH,” says Layergg. “Even if there are short-term market corrections, Ethereum is expected to bullish in Q1 2024.”
L2s and Protocol Upgrades Taking Center Stage
Beyond the macro tailwind from a Bitcoin ETF approval, Layergg sees catalysts for Ethereum growth from Layer 2 scaling solutions and upcoming protocol upgrades like the Shanghai fork.
“The mainnet upgrade is expected to take place between late February and March,” notes Layergg. “In the last cycle, the beneficiaries of the Merge & Shanghai fork were Liquid Staking sector. Likewise, $OP $ARB $MANTLE $LRC $MATIC $METIS will be in the spotlight.”
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Show more +Major zk-rollup projects like zkSync, StarkNet, Scroll, and Manta Network launching in 2023 will also spotlight Ethereum’s scalability solutions. “The launch of major projects is expected to result in more $ETH being bridged,” says Layergg.
Influencers Forecast an ETH Breakout
Finally, crypto thought leaders like Arthur Hayes are calling for an Ethereum price breakout. Hayes recently forecasted a rise in Ethereum’s price following his widely-discussed $100K Bitcoin prediction.
Other influential crypto voices like Miles Deutscher, NorthRockLP, MacnBTC, and Route2FI share Hayes’ bullish Ethereum outlook. “Cult Leaders will be at the forefront of the $ETH Hype,” declares Layergg.
Historical Precedents Suggest Future Outperformance
Veteran macro investor Raoul Pal also sees Ethereum massively outperforming Bitcoin, much like it did in 2021. Pal points out, “in Feb 2021, BTC first hit $44,000 (where it is today) and ETH was at $1400 (now $2250).” Over the next 9 months, ETH proceeded to outperform BTC 245% to 45%.
“I think ETH outperforming BTC will be a key macro trend of 2024 and our work at EXPAAM suggests it,” asserts Pal. “It’s all about liquidity and the business cycle leading the risk curve. Narrative follows.”
So while bears may declare “Ethereum is dead” during periods of stagnation, analysts see strong fundamentals and coming catalysts that suggest quite the opposite. Ethereum’s network effects and protocol upgrades appear likely to drive continued growth and outperformance in 2023-2024 if history is any indicator.
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