Cardano’s native token ADA is up 7% this week, trading around $0.51. Its market cap sits at around $18.3 billion, putting it among the top 15 cryptocurrencies globally. Only Chainlink and Avalanche have posted bigger gains in the past week among top altcoins, in what has otherwise been a relatively quiet period for crypto markets.
ADA is currently trading in a range between $0.45 and $0.67, a pattern it has largely held since early December. The $0.45 level aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level and has bounced off support here multiple times.
The RSI indicator across all timeframes reads 50-55, meaning ADA is currently in neutral territory momentum-wise. Neither bulls nor bears have control at the moment.
The 200-day moving average sits around $0.37. A moving average helps smooth price action and identify long-term trends and support/resistance. The fact that ADA is trading well above its 200-day MA suggests the longer-term outlook remains bullish.
Prominent analyst Ali recently tweeted: “Should the patterns align and #Cardano mirrors its late 2020 price behavior, we can anticipate $ADA to remain in a consolidation phase until April 2024, setting the stage for its next bull rally!”
What Ali means is that ADA could trade sideways in this current range for another 2 months or so, similar to how it consolidated in late 2020 before embarking on a major bull run in 2021. If history repeats, we could see ADA peak around $7.90 next cycle according to Ali’s analysis.
Based on Ali’s chart analysis, the $7.90 price level is expected to come sometime in early 2025 if Cardano follows a similar trajectory to its previous market cycle. The thinking is that after the extended consolidation period through 2023 and early 2024, ADA could break out and peak in late 2024 or early the following year, much like it bottomed in mid-2020 before reaching its all-time high around $3 in September 2021.
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Show more +Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results and multiple factors from development activity to regulatory changes could accelerate or delay projected price movements. But if Cardano roughly rhymes with its previous market cycle, early 2025 is when traders could potentially realize the next price discovery phase towards $7.90 or higher. As with any forecast that far out, it pays to be skeptical and conservative when position sizing.
In conclusion, while short-term trading of ADA may be volatile and range-bound for some time, the long-term investment case still looks promising. However, as with any cryptocurrency, traders should exercise good risk management and only invest what they can afford to lose. The next few months could be a critical period of consolidation and development building for Cardano ahead of its next potential parabolic advance.
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