What could happen to Ripple price if a large amount of Bitcoin was converted to XRP. One bold idea came from The Crypto Basic, where they imagined what would happen if someone swapped 200,000 BTC for Ripple in a single move. That’s more than $23 billion based on today’s Bitcoin price.
Crypto analyst Amonyx recently said XRP could end up making more millionaires than Bitcoin. His comment added fuel to the debate between the two assets. Around the same time, XRP supporter Edoardo Farina encouraged Bitcoin holders to switch to XRP while it still trades under $3.50. He called it their final chance to benefit from what he believes is an upcoming rally.
Right now, XRP trades at $3.14 with a market cap of $186.6 billion. There are around 59.23 billion XRP in circulation. Bitcoin is priced at about $118,837 with a market cap of $2.36 trillion.
So what would actually happen if someone used 200,000 BTC to buy XRP? To explore this idea, analysts turned to two AI models: Grok from xAI and Gemini from Google.
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What you'll learn 👉
Grok Predicts a Sharp XRP Surge and a BTC Drop
Grok took a technical approach to model what might happen. At current prices, 200,000 BTC is worth about $23.77 billion. If that amount was used to buy XRP at $3.14, the buyer would get roughly 7.57 billion XRP. That’s nearly 13% of the total supply.
Grok then looked at the supply impact. The 200,000 BTC being sold would only be about 1% of all Bitcoin in circulation. So the Bitcoin price might not react as sharply as XRP, where the buy size would be much larger than its daily volume.
In Grok’s first model, Bitcoin would fall by around 16.5%, landing near $99,151. But in a more realistic model, which reflects how markets handle large trades, Grok predicted a 28.6% drop. That would take Bitcoin to around $84,849.
For XRP, Grok’s simple model showed a huge jump of more than 550%, sending the price to $20.63. But using a more balanced method, Grok suggested a post-trade price of $12.22. That’s still a 289% increase from where XRP is now.
The market caps would shift too. Bitcoin’s would drop to about $1.67 trillion, while XRP’s would rise to $820.8 billion. This would be one of the biggest shifts the crypto market has ever seen.
Gemini Focuses on Slippage and XRP Market Reactions
Gemini, the AI tool from Google, looked at things differently. It focused on slippage, which is the price movement that happens as big trades go through the order book. Gemini estimated that selling 200,000 BTC would create about 30% slippage. So the average price during the sale would be about $83,186 per Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Gemini used a different method. It focused on slippage, which refers to the price change that occurs as a trade pushes through buy or sell orders.
— TheCryptoBasic (@thecryptobasic) July 31, 2025
According to Gemini, the massive BTC sale would trigger about 30% slippage, meaning most BTC would sell at around… pic.twitter.com/O0SSxF93DK
Gemini also warned about panic selling and possible liquidations. If people start to react emotionally, Bitcoin could fall to as low as $70,000 before it settles.
On the XRP side, Gemini said the buying pressure would push up the average execution price. Instead of $3.14, the buyer would likely end up paying around $6.28 per XRP. That would get them about 3.78 billion tokens.
If you calculate based on added value alone, XRP would land at about $3.55. But Gemini believes that fear of missing out and shrinking liquidity would push the price even higher. Its final estimate put XRP somewhere between $6 and $10.
Could One Trade Really Change Everything for XRP?
This imagined trade shows how quickly things can shift in the crypto world. Both Grok and Gemini agree that a $23 billion swap from Bitcoin to Ripple would hurt BTC in the short term and boost XRP in a big way.
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Grok sees the XRP price going as high as $12.22. Gemini thinks it might hit somewhere between $6 and $10. While their models differ, they both expect a significant price jump for XRP.
Analyst Amonyx still believes that XRP has the potential to outperform Bitcoin when it comes to building wealth. If a huge trade like this ever happens, it could prove his prediction right. For now, it’s just an idea, but one that’s getting more attention every day.
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