Gold prices edged lower today as rising oil prices increased inflation concerns and strengthened expectations around a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $4,398.71 per ounce, according to the figures provided, with December U.S. gold futures down 0.7% at $4,443.60.
Oil prices also reached multi-week highs of $101 after attacks on Saudi energy facilities and fresh threats from Tehran, adding pressure to the inflation outlook. That leaves traders focused on upcoming U.S. inflation and employment data.
Yet the gold price has a technical setup worth watching. The chart shows the XAU/USD price testing a major rising trendline that extends from December 2024. If September brings a successful recovery above that trendline, analysts see an initial path toward $5,000.
What you'll learn 👉
Gold Price Tests a Major Trendline
We had a look at the chart, and the most important feature is the rising trendline that begins around December 2024 and connects several major price reactions through 2025 and 2026.
The gold price respected this line through multiple advances, making it an important structural level rather than a random support line.
After reaching a peak near $5,500, the gold price corrected toward the $4,000 area before recovering back toward the $4,400 region.
Gold continues to trade under a major rising trendline extending from December 2024. It needs to regain it during the month of September so initial move to $5k opens up… pic.twitter.com/SBqUG5neQH
— Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) September 8, 2026
The latest move has brought XAU/USD directly into the area where the rising trendline meets the horizontal level around $4,400. The chart marks this meeting point with a circle, showing why September could become an important month for the gold price. A sustained move above the trendline would indicate that buyers have regained control of the broader structure. The first major objective would then be the $4,695.75 weekly level.
The bigger target comes from the sequence of weekly resistance levels. If $4,695.75 fails to contain buyers, the next objectives are $4,772, $4,890, and eventually $5,015. That makes the $5,000 area technically reachable if the gold price clears each resistance zone. However, failure to reclaim the rising trendline would weaken this setup and leave the $4,310–$4,365 area exposed.
News That Could Push Gold Price This Week
The U.S. economic calendar is packed with data capable of moving the gold price. The figures provided show Core PPI m/m at 0.3% versus 0.2% previously, PPI m/m at 0.4% versus 0.0%, and unemployment claims forecast at 205,000 versus 206,000 previously. Stronger producer-price readings could reinforce inflation concerns and make rate cuts harder to price, creating pressure on gold through higher yields and a stronger dollar.
Consumer inflation will be even more important. Core CPI m/m is forecast at 0.2%, unchanged from the previous reading, and Core CPI y/y at 2.4% versus 2.5%. Headline CPI m/m is forecast at 0.4% versus 0.1%, with annual CPI at 3.4%. A softer inflation print could improve the case for easier monetary policy and support the gold price, especially if Treasury yields decline at the same time.
Employment data also matters because a weaker labor market could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to support the economy. The calendar lists ADP Weekly Employment Change at 11.8K, alongside the unemployment-claims estimate. Consumer sentiment is forecast at 51.0, down from the revised 51.7, and one-year inflation expectations are listed at 4.0%. A combination of weaker employment and softer inflation would create a more favorable environment for gold.
Related Gold News: Gold Price Prediction As Central Banks Refuse to Stop Buying Gold
Our Gold Price Prediction: $5,000 Is Back in Play
The weekly setup gives the gold price a clear roadmap. XAU/USD reacted around the $4,310.45 weekly low, with $4,695.75 the first upside objective. If buyers clear that level, $4,772 becomes the next target, followed by $4,890.
A break through all three levels would put $5,015 within reach, matching the $5,000 target highlighted by the chart structure.
There is also a shorter-term downside path. The gold price has reacted around the daily obstruction at $4,470.85, and failure to hold this area could send the XAU/USD price toward $4,365 as the next weekly buying zone.
If $4,365 fails, the next supports are $4,283 and $4,225. Therefore, September’s key battle is clear: reclaim the rising trendline and $4,470.85, and the gold price can target $4,695.75, $4,772, $4,890 and potentially $5,015. Lose the lower supports, and the $5,000 setup would need to wait.
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