The crypto market is in another important week, with Bitcoin trading around $80,000 while attention in Washington turns to the increasingly uncertain future of the CLARITY Act.
Prediction-market traders have become much less confident that the legislation will become law this year. Polymarket recently put the probability at approximately 18%, down from around 20% in August. The shrinking congressional calendar is adding to those concerns, with the House scheduled to leave Washington on September 17 after cutting eight voting days later this month.
Against that backdrop, analyst Andy says conversations around Capitol Hill point to even lower odds than prediction markets currently imply. Another analyst, Bobby, believes failure of the CLARITY Act could become the catalyst for a sizeable crypto correction. although he expects Bitcoin could first rally toward $92,000–$110,000.
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Andy Says CLARITY Act Chances May Be Even Lower Than 18%
Andy described the latest situation as coming from the “Capitol Hill rumor mill,” claiming people he has spoken with in Washington increasingly assume the CLARITY Act will not make it through Congress.
While Polymarket traders have recently priced the probability of enactment around 18%, Andy estimates the actual probability at only 3%–5%.
That lower estimate is his own assessment and should not be confused with an official congressional forecast. Likewise, his claims about private conversations in Washington cannot be independently confirmed.
Still, there are legitimate reasons for concern about the legislation’s timeline.
The House passed its version of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in 2025, but the Senate has worked on different language. Any Senate amendments would need to be accepted by the House or reconciled between the chambers before a final bill could reach President Donald Trump.
With the House currently expected to leave Washington on September 17 and not resume regular legislative work until after the November 3 midterms, the available window is becoming increasingly narrow.
A major Senate procedural test is expected on September 15. Importantly, this is not final passage of the legislation. The vote concerns advancing the bill through the Senate process, where supporters need sufficient bipartisan backing to overcome the procedural hurdle.
Senator Cynthia Lummis has also raised the stakes, arguing that if comprehensive market-structure legislation doesn’t pass during the current Congress, the next realistic opportunity may not arrive until 2030. That is Lummis’ political assessment of the legislative calendar rather than a statutory deadline.
Could Crypto Regulation Be Broken Into Smaller Pieces?
Andy doesn’t believe failure of CLARITY would necessarily end the push for new U.S. crypto rules.
Instead, he expects policymakers could pursue narrower measures dealing individually with areas such as tokenization, perpetual futures, prediction markets and innovation exemptions, rather than attempting to move everything through one comprehensive market-structure package.
Again, that is Andy’s account of what he is hearing rather than an announced congressional plan.
There is, however, precedent for Washington addressing individual parts of the crypto industry separately. The GENIUS Act established a federal framework for payment stablecoins in 2025, while regulators have continued working on other digital-asset rules separately.
The implication is important for crypto investors.
A CLARITY Act failure wouldn’t mean U.S. crypto regulation simply disappears. Existing SEC, CFTC and other federal authority would remain, while Congress and regulators could continue dealing with individual areas separately.
The bigger issue would be the loss of a comprehensive market-structure framework designed to clarify regulatory responsibilities across much of the industry.
And that potential disappointment could have consequences for market sentiment.
Bobby Warns CLARITY Failure Could Trigger a Crypto Correction
Analyst Bobby believes the market may be underestimating that possibility.
He argues that failure to pass the CLARITY Act could become the event that starts the next significant crypto correction. But interestingly, he doesn’t expect Bitcoin to necessarily fall from current levels immediately.
His preferred scenario is another Bitcoin rally first.
Pay attention.
— Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) September 8, 2026
Clarity Act not passing could be what initiates the temporary correction that leads to a macro higher low.
The charts are signaling that a decent-sized correction is possible in the next few weeks.
In my opinion, that corrective period will start from a higher… https://t.co/J5kwnrUYwT
Bobby sees BTC potentially making an impulsive move toward somewhere between $92,000 and $110,000 before correcting approximately 20%–25%.
With Bitcoin recently trading around $80,000 and repeatedly encountering resistance near $82,000, that would require bulls to first clear an area that has already rejected several breakout attempts.
If Bitcoin reaches $92,000 before dropping 20%, the correction would take BTC toward approximately $73,600. A 25% decline would put it near $69,000.
From $110,000, the same correction would produce potential levels around $88,000 and $82,500.
That explains Bobby’s broader thesis: Bitcoin could rally substantially from here and still undergo a major correction without necessarily returning to new macro lows.
He views such a decline as a potential macro higher low, rather than the beginning of another prolonged bear market.
Read also: Where Will Bitcoin (BTC) Price Go This Week
What if Bitcoin Doesn’t Rally Soon?
Timing is a critical part of Bobby’s forecast.
He wants Bitcoin and Ethereum to begin their next legs higher this week or, at the latest, next week.
If that doesn’t happen, his outlook becomes less straightforward.
Instead of first running toward $92,000–$110,000, Bobby says Bitcoin could become vulnerable to a deeper backtest of approximately $67,000–$70,000.
That creates two very different routes but potentially a similar longer-term conclusion.
In the bullish-first scenario, Bitcoin breaks higher, potentially reaches $92,000–$110,000, and then experiences a 20%–25% correction.
In the weaker scenario, BTC fails to generate the expected upside impulse soon and opens the door to $67,000–$70,000 considerably earlier.
Bobby nevertheless believes the macro lows have already been established. He sees the next large correction as a potential buying opportunity rather than evidence that Bitcoin must make a fresh cycle low.
That remains an analyst forecast, not something the market has confirmed.
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