The Bitcoin price is near $83,733, but plenty of investors have their eyes on a different market: U.S. Treasury bonds. Scott Melker noted that the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.196%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year yield hit 5.4816%, a level not seen since 2004.
Those numbers matter because they raise the bar for everything else. If you can earn over 5% from U.S. government debt, riskier assets like stocks and crypto have to offer a much better reason to hold them.
Melker also pointed out that markets are pricing in about a 71% chance of another Fed rate hike in October. Throw in weak demand at Treasury auctions, and it’s easy to see why yields keep climbing.
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Claude AI Maps Out Bitcoin’s Next Move
Claude AI believes the bond market could play a major role in determining where Bitcoin goes next. Right now, Bitcoin is moving inside a pretty clear range. We analysed the BTC chart, and it’s spent the past several weeks trading between roughly $80,000 and $88,000 after rallying from around $60,000 earlier in the cycle.
The indicators aren’t giving a clear answer yet. RSI is at 48.10, almost perfectly neutral. The Ultimate Oscillator is at 43.70. The chart even shows both bullish and bearish divergences, which usually means the market is waiting for a catalyst before making its next big move. For now, neither buyers nor sellers have taken full control.
The Bullish Case if Bond Yields Finally Cool
Claude AI sees a more favorable outlook for Bitcoin if pressure in the bond market starts to ease. The first hurdle for the Bitcoin price is $84,000. Beyond that, resistance levels sit at $86,000 and $88,000. If those barriers break, the next target on the chart is around $92,000.
One thing working in Bitcoin’s favor is resilience. Even with Treasury yields at levels not seen in many years, the BTC price has managed to stay above the important $80,000 support area. If concerns around future rate hikes begin to fade and yields stop climbing, Bitcoin could have room to move back toward its recent highs.
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What Happens to BTC if the Bond Crisis Gets Worse
The risk is that bond yields continue moving higher. Claude AI warns that a prolonged rise in yields could pull money away from speculative assets and into government debt. If that happens, Bitcoin could come under pressure.
The first level to watch is $80,000. If that support gives way, the next downside targets are $76,000 and $72,000. Below those, the chart points to support around $68,000, $64,000, and eventually the broader support zone near $60,000. That doesn’t mean those levels will get hit. But they become relevant if selling pressure picks up.
Where Bitcoin Price Could Land by the End of 2026
Claude AI’s outlook comes down to one key question: can the bond market calm down? If yields stabilize and liquidity improves, Bitcoin could push back above $88,000, challenge $92,000, and keep climbing through 2026.
If yields keep rising and financial conditions tighten further, Bitcoin may struggle to hold $80,000 and could spend time testing lower support between $72,000 and $60,000.
For now, Bitcoin is stuck between two important levels. Buyers need a move above $84,000 to strengthen the bullish case. Sellers need a break below $80,000 to gain the upper hand. Until one of those levels breaks, Bitcoin remains in waiting mode, with the bond market likely holding the key to what happens next.
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