The Bitcoin price fell 1.26% in one day to $75,188. The S&P 500 barely moved, so Bitcoin did worse. Big institutions keep selling, and that is pushing the whole crypto market down.
One trade stood out. Someone moved 29.2 million shares of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF through a dark pool. That trade was worth $1.29 billion. It made people feel even worse about the market. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now seen money leave for eight days in a row. Over two weeks, that adds up to $1.88 billion gone.
The Bitcoin price is also moving with gold these days. The two are correlated at 52%. Traders are reacting to the same thing: the fight between the US and Iran.
That direct war started on February 28, 2026. The US and Israel hit Iranian nuclear sites, military targets, and top leaders. Iran fired back at US positions in the Gulf and key energy spots.
People got scared the Strait of Hormuz would get blocked and it did, which increased oil prices. A temporary ceasefire started on April 8, but things never really settled down. Both sides keep fighting and talking at the same time over shipping routes and sanctions.
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Conflicting Peace Deal Reports Trigger Fresh Market Volatility
Markets got jumpy after Iranian state media put out what they called the first details of a US-Iran peace plan. The reported deal said Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. They would pull out naval mines, let commercial ships pass, and stop fighting on multiple fronts. The draft also said Iran would get rid of its enriched uranium and promise to never build nuclear weapons.
🚨 US NOW CALLS THE REPORTED IRAN PEACE DEAL A “COMPLETE FABRICATION”
— Wise Advice (@wiseadvicesumit) May 27, 2026
Iranian state media earlier released what it claimed were initial details of a US-Iran “Memorandum of Understanding” focused on de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets reacted immediately.
Oil prices… pic.twitter.com/miqg3sa0A1
The reaction was fast. Oil dropped below $89 a barrel because traders saw lower risk of war and possible stability in global energy shipping. The Bitcoin price also tried to steady itself. For a moment, investors thought the news was good for markets overall.
That optimism faded after the White House denied the entire report and described the alleged framework as “completely fabricated.” President Donald Trump also stated that “NO AGREEMENT” had been reached with Iran. The conflicting narratives created confusion across global markets within hours.
BREAKING: Trump says "NO AGREEMENT" has been reached with Iran.
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) May 27, 2026
The White House also called the reported Iran-US framework released by Iranian state media "completely fabricated." https://t.co/NdKw2piSH6
The uncertainty is keeping traders defensive. Bitcoin (BTC) is still getting squeezed from two sides. Big economic fears and money leaving ETFs are both pushing it down. Investors are watching to see if the failed peace talks set off another round of selling across crypto and stocks.
Bitcoin Price Analysis Shows Bears Holding Short-Term Control
We had a look at the chart, and BTC remains under pressure after breaking below its previous ascending structure. The price has now moved closer to the lower end of the recent trading range near $75,000 as sellers maintain short-term control.
The stochastic RSI has dropped near oversold territory, with both lines trading close to the 11 and 14 levels. The standard RSI has also fallen to 34.96, showing weakening momentum after repeated failed recovery attempts near the $77,000 region.
Looking at the price moves, Bitcoin has been making lower highs over the last several sessions. That started after it got rejected from the $82,000 area earlier in May.
If the BTC price cannot hold above the $74,000 support zone, traders may aim for a move down to $73,000 or lower in the near term.
Related Bitcoin News: Here’s Why the Crypto Market Is Down Today as Bitcoin Price Dips To 75K
ChatGPT Predicts Bitcoin Price if the US-Iran Deal Collapses
Likely Path
The most likely thing is that Bitcoin keeps swinging between $74,000 and $77,000. Traders are reacting to mixed news about the US and Iran and to money flowing out of ETFs.
Bitcoin looks soft right now. But the RSI is getting low enough that buyers might be able to hold the line at $74,000.
Everyone is also watching to see if that huge $1.29 billion IBIT sale by BlackRock leads to more big institutions selling over the next few days.
Bearish Path
If the US-Iran peace deal falls apart completely and things get worse, Bitcoin could break below $74,000 and fall toward $73,000 or lower.
More money leaving ETFs and institutions selling would add even more weight on the BTC price. On top of that, China is getting ready to tighten its crypto rules. That could also hurt how people feel about the market and push more traders to sell first and ask questions later.
Bullish Path
The good case starts if war fears cool off and money starts flowing back into ETFs. If the Bitcoin price gets back above $77,000, traders might aim for a recovery toward $80,000 again.
Kraken also launched Bitcoin yield vaults that pay up to 2.5% APY. That gives people a reason to hold onto their BTC instead of dumping it when the market gets scared.
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