Cardano is down 5% and trading at $0.185 over the last day. That is worse than the rest of the crypto market, which is already weak. Traders are pulling back from altcoins ahead of key U.S. inflation data coming out.
The bigger issue is that ADA does not have its own catalyst right now. Bitcoin is leading the way, and Cardano is just following along, but lagging. So when the market turns cautious, ADA gets hit harder.
There are also a few warning signs that analyst Ali Charts pointed out. Whale holdings are down. ADA’s MVRV ratio just crossed below its seven-day moving average, a death cross. And the daily Tom DeMark Sequential is flashing a sell signal.
Put all that together, and the risk is that the ADA price could drop even more from here.
What you'll learn 👉
Cardano Whales Are Reducing Their Exposure
Ali Charts pointed out that the number of Cardano whales, wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA, dropped from 2,370 on August 2 to 2,340. That is 30 fewer wallets in just over a week.
With the ADA price at $0.185, a 1-million-ADA position is worth about $185,000. So these are not small players. They make up a big chunk of the market’s larger holders.
The drop could mean a few things. Maybe some of them took profits after the earlier run-up. Or maybe they are just redistributing their holdings. Either way, fewer whales is something worth paying attention to.
3/6 The added selling pressure has triggered a death cross between Cardano’s MVRV ratio and its 7-day simple moving average.
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) August 11, 2026
That shift points to weakening momentum and raises the risk of a deeper correction. pic.twitter.com/OqdjQamJ7k
The second warning comes from Cardano’s MVRV ratio, which has formed a death cross against its seven-day simple moving average. MVRV compares an asset’s market value with the realized value of its holdings, giving traders a way to assess whether holders are sitting on unrealized profits or losses.
A bearish crossover can indicate weakening market conditions, and Ali Charts says the development increases the risk of a deeper ADA correction.
The third warning is technical. Cardano’s daily chart has triggered a Tom DeMark Sequential sell signal, an indicator designed to identify potential exhaustion in a prevailing price move. Ali Charts notes that the setup could precede a 1-to-4 candlestick pullback or develop into a broader bearish countdown.
If the three signals continue to confirm one another, the analyst points to $0.170 as the first downside target, followed by the lower channel boundary near $0.144.
5/6 If these warning signs are confirmed, $ADA could decline toward $0.170, the channel’s mid-range support.
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) August 11, 2026
A further breakdown could expose the lower boundary near $0.144. pic.twitter.com/9MFFeDzhHU
Cardano’s Decentralization Hits a New Milestone
The bearish price setup comes alongside a positive development for the Cardano network. Cardano has reached a Nakamoto coefficient of 16, its highest level to date, based on data highlighted by blockchain tracker Chainspect and Cardano stake pool operators.
The metric measures how many independent entities would need to coordinate to compromise or censor a blockchain’s consensus. A coefficient of 16 means at least 16 independent entities would need to collude to control the relevant block-production threshold.
That matters because a higher coefficient means consensus power is distributed across more independent operators. Cardano’s proof-of-stake design relies on stake pools competing for delegated ADA, and greater distribution can reduce the risk of a small group gaining disproportionate control.
The key for ADA holders is whether this distribution remains broad as network activity increases. Stake concentration, governance changes tied to upgrades such as Leios and the Dijkstra era, and greater DeFi or institutional participation could all influence the metric over time.
Related Cardano News: ChatGPT Predicts the Solana and Cardano Price If Bitcoin Recovers to $80K
What This Means for the ADA Price
Cardano finds itself in a strange spot right now. The network itself looks solid, the Nakamoto coefficient just hit 16, which is a good sign for decentralization. But that does not mean the Cardano price is safe from broader selling pressure.
In the short term, $0.170 is the first level to watch if ADA stays below $0.185. If that breaks, the next stop could be $0.144. That would be about a 22% drop from where it is now.
For the bulls to get any breathing room, the Cardano price needs to push back above $0.185 and shake off those bearish signals. That would give them a much better chance to steady things.
Frequently Asked Questions
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
