The reported ceasefire extension between the US and Iran could remove one immediate source of pressure from Bitcoin. However, BTC price still faces several obstacles that could limit any recovery from its current level near $64,000.
Interest rate concerns remain present, spot Bitcoin ETF demand has become inconsistent, and large holders continue to create occasional selling pressure. Technical indicators also provide mixed readings, which leaves Bitcoin open to whichever force reaches the market first.
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The Kobeissi Letter Reports An Extension Of The US And Iran Ceasefire
The Kobeissi Letter reported that the US and Iran had agreed to extend their 60 day ceasefire. The agreement was expected to expire on August 18, which made the reported extension an important development for global markets.
The Kobeissi Letter explained that the ceasefire operated under a Memorandum of Understanding brokered by Pakistan. August 18 represented the final day of the original ceasefire period between both countries.
President Donald Trump also confirmed that a backchannel remained open with officials from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. That communication could provide both sides with another way to prevent fresh military action.
However, The Kobeissi Letter noted that there was no indication of an imminent agreement. The ceasefire extension may prevent immediate escalation, but it does not resolve the wider conflict between both countries. The Iran War has now reached day 170, which shows how long the uncertainty has remained part of the wider market picture.
BREAKING: The US and Iran have reportedly agreed to extend their 60-day ceasefire which was set to expire today, per Al Arabiya.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 17, 2026
Details include:
1. Under the "Memorandum of Understanding" brokered by Pakistan, today marks the final day of the Iran War ceasefire
2. President…
Bitcoin could receive some relief if the ceasefire continues. Reduced military tension could calm concerns about energy supplies and global inflation. However, BTC price may require support from other market factors before it can begin a stronger recovery.
Federal Reserve Policy Remains A Major Obstacle For Bitcoin Price
The Federal Reserve remains one of the strongest forces affecting Bitcoin price. Persistent inflation concerns connected to energy prices support expectations that interest rates could remain elevated for longer.
Higher interest rates usually reduce the amount of liquidity available for risk assets. Investors can earn returns from safer assets during such periods, which can reduce demand for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
The US and Iran ceasefire could ease part of that concern if it reduces pressure on energy prices. However, the Federal Reserve will still require convincing inflation data before changing its policy direction.
Regulatory delays present another problem for Bitcoin. Repeated delays and procedural obstacles surrounding the CLARITY Act continue to leave compliance focused investors without the certainty they need. Large institutions may remain cautious until the rules become clearer.
Uneven ETF Demand And Corporate Sales Limit Bitcoin’s Recovery
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have not provided consistent support during recent weeks. Net inflows have alternated with periods of outflows, which means institutional demand has not developed into steady accumulation.
That inconsistency matters because strong ETF demand can remove Bitcoin from the available market supply. Weak or uneven demand leaves BTC more exposed to selling from other large holders.
Corporate activity has also added periodic supply pressure. Intermittent sales from large holders, including Strategy and Bitcoin mining companies, can introduce more BTC to exchanges.
August trading conditions create another challenge. The month commonly brings lower conviction across the cryptocurrency market, and the current Bitcoin price range follows that seasonal pattern.
Several important pressures therefore remain active:
- Higher interest rates continue to restrict liquidity available for Bitcoin.
- CLARITY Act delays leave institutional investors without complete regulatory certainty.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain inconsistent across different trading sessions.
- Corporate and mining company sales can increase available Bitcoin supply.
- Lower August activity supports narrow and uncertain Bitcoin price movement.
The ceasefire extension may improve the broader mood, but these pressures could prevent an immediate breakout.
Bitcoin Price Has Struggled Since Reaching $98,000 In January
Bitcoin price reached a 2026 peak near $98,000 during January. That rally eventually lost strength, and BTC began a decline that took the price toward $60,000 during February.
The February decline marked a major change in the yearly structure. Bitcoin struggled to recover during the following months, although buyers continued defending the area around $60,000.
A stronger recovery arrived around the middle of May. Bitcoin price climbed toward $82,000, but the rally lasted only briefly. Sellers regained control before BTC could return to its January peak.
The subsequent decline pushed Bitcoin below its February low. BTC eventually formed another yearly low near $57,000 before buyers returned.
Bitcoin has since bounced from that level and currently trades around $64,000. The recovery shows that buyers remain active near the lower end of the yearly range. However, BTC still trades far below its May level of $82,000 and January peak near $98,000.
The current position leaves Bitcoin between 2 important areas. The $57,000 to $60,000 region represents the main lower zone, and $82,000 remains the clearest recovery target from earlier price activity.
Read Also: Kaspa Just Repeated Bitcoin’s 2015 Bottom… Here’s What Happened Next
Bitcoin Indicators Provide Mixed Readings Near $64,000
A look at the Bitcoin chart shows that technical indicators do not currently agree on one direction. The daily relative strength index stands near 52, which provides a neutral reading.
An RSI reading close to 50 usually means buyers and sellers have comparable strength. Bitcoin is neither heavily purchased nor heavily sold at the current level.
The MACD stands near minus 38 and gives a slightly negative reading. This result means bearish pressure has not completely disappeared, even after the bounce from $57,000.
The 14 day ADX provides a buy reading. The 13 day bull bear indicator also shows a buy reading, which offers some support for the recovery.
The Ultimate Oscillator and 14 day CCI both remain neutral. Those readings leave Bitcoin open to whichever source of momentum enters the market first.
| Indicator | Current Reading | Technical Message |
|---|---|---|
| Daily RSI | 52 | Neutral |
| MACD | Minus 38 | Slightly Negative |
| 14 Day ADX | Buy | Positive |
| 13 Day Bull Bear Indicator | Buy | Positive |
| Ultimate Oscillator | Neutral | Undecided |
| 14 Day CCI | Neutral | Undecided |
The combined reading is balanced. Buyers have enough strength to protect the recovery, but they have not gained full control over Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Depends On Which Market Force Arrives First
A bullish scenario could develop if the ceasefire extension reduces geopolitical pressure and ETF demand improves. Bitcoin price could strengthen above its current $64,000 level and begin another move toward $70,000. Continued demand could then place the May level near $82,000 back within reach.
A neutral scenario could keep Bitcoin between $60,000 and $70,000. Mixed indicators, inconsistent ETF flows, and low August activity support this outcome. BTC may continue moving inside that area until monetary policy or institutional demand provides clearer direction.
A bearish scenario remains possible if inflation concerns increase and corporate selling becomes stronger. Bitcoin could return toward $60,000 before testing the yearly low near $57,000. A decline below that area would weaken the recovery structure and expose BTC to a deeper correction.
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