Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has lost around 50 percent of its value and is still holding up comparatively well. Nevertheless, the mood is down, many speculators have meanwhile withdrawn, and the trading volume has fallen significantly in recent months. This has also been accompanied by a noticeable decline in the volatility range. Volatility, calculated over 60 days, is at almost two percent, its lowest level since January 2017.
Disillusionment dominates trading, also because there are no potential price catalysts in sight. A decision by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to signal the green light for Bitcoin ETFs is still a long time coming. Chart technical factors determine the direction.
And here Tom Lee, analyst at Fundstrat Global Investors, sees light at the end of the tunnel. Lee is known as the Bitcoin bull and expects the largest crypto currency to jump to a maximum of 22,000 dollars by the end of the year. Based on the current level, this would be an “increase” of around 220 percent in a good two months. Is this realistic?
Basically yes, as the past shows. In mid-November 2017 the price stood at 5400 dollars, a good four weeks later about 260 percent higher at just under 20,000 dollars. But for this to happen, the fundamental environment would have to change significantly, which is not to be expected in view of the numerous negative factors (no clear regulation, bans, fraud, hacker attacks).
Tom Lee therefore concentrates on the 200-day line as a trigger, as he explained to YouTube’s blog Crypto Tips. If the much-noticed average of currently around 7200 is overcome, he expects a sharp rally of around 80 percent in the next six weeks. A maximum parabolic increase similar to that at the end of 2017 would be possible up to 22,000. Lee thus sees the bottom at around 6000 dollars and assumes that there are many long-term investors in the market who would not sell. Many other “experts” are much more sceptical and expect another crash with prices of around 3000 dollars.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Should Bitcoin fall below the broad support zone at 5750 to 6200, there is a risk of a return to 4900 or even 4450. Since the trend has been down since the beginning of the year, the negative scenario is somewhat more likely. But the sheet can turn quickly if the red downward trend line around 6800 is clearly overcome at the end of the day. The next goals lie then however first with 7200 (200-day average), 7400/7700, above it around 8500.
A directional decision is approaching and will take place in the next four weeks. At the end of November the downtrend line crosses the support area. The volatility that has been declining for weeks should then unload in a strong price reaction.