Last three days have been a rare occasion in bitcoin market this year – we have seen a steady ascending of bitcoin price, from the $3217 to the current $3668 according to the data of messari.io. We combed the internet for opinions on sustainability of this run and where does bitcoin go from here and here is what some traders had to say:
- This mini bull run seems to be losing steam as couple of high profile Twitter traders suggest.
Closed half on XBT at $3690 and half ETH at $103.50
Leaving limit orders to close the rest in the low $3800s and build a hedge short.
Will leave bottom entry positions open until I am bearish again. pic.twitter.com/F68KA6WQVF
— The Crypto Dog? (@TheCryptoDog) December 19, 2018
- This trader noticed suspiciously bullish order books on exchanges:
“Unless there are a lot of hidden sell walls on all the major exchanges, the order books are looking rather ridiculous right now. There could be some unprecedented price movement in the coming days if upward pressure continues to increase and shorts start to close.
I am well aware you can’t rely on the order books to plan price movement, but I have NEVER seen them look so ridiculous as they are on Coinbase and Bitfinex at the moment.”
So, the Elliott count seems pretty straightforward here, and that’s a (price) relief !
We are currently somewhere between the end of a yellow wave 3 and beginning of wave 4. With a little tweaking of the purple channel in play since November 23rd, we can expect the yellow wave 5 to test and be rejected @4000 tomorrow. This would make a local top, marking the end of the purple wave 5 of an impulse which started at yearly low.
Therefore, we should be in for a correction with purple ABC , expecting a retracement at least towards 0.5 fibonacci to 3600ish, probably even lower to 3400ish, but who knows…
One thing is sure : once we get rejected around 4000 with a clean completion of yellow wave 5, I’m shorting BTC and waiting for purple B wave to decide a target. After that, I’m not even trying to forecast the damn tricky price action. Can’t believe we’re going back up before testing new yearly lows though…
All three show the same pattern at or just before very convenient whole number price points. This leads me to think that the trading action on Bitfinex is leading the recent movement, regardless of Tether fud or trading volume on Coinbase or the Bitmex paperboys. The pattern is that they just met or slightly breached the price point in the first attempt and then fell just short on the second. BTC and ETH attempts were timed the same, XRP showed a rise at the same time, but bounced in between the two for BTC and ETH. The second bounce for XRP was timed the same as the second for BTC and ETH.
I would suggest that we need to confidently break all three of these price points in the short term to see significant chance of upwards momentum.
For the end, some sound advice:
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