Bitcoin plummeting again, $4000 breached and no bottom in sight. BCH and XLM leading the losing pack

• 15.0% at $4500
• 15.0% at $4250
• 20.0% at $4000
• 20.0% at $3750
• 30.0% at $3500

I have been expecting a bottom around $3200 – an 84% retrace from this cycle’s ATH, in line with historical retraces, and aligned with a strong psychological support level with a lot of historical price action in the summer of 2017. I believe the fundamental value of a Bitcoin is somewhere between $1k and $2k, but do not anticipate it getting that low. I expect a “HODLer’s/speculator’s premium” to keep price above fundamental value due to the ideological fervor in the space.

As always, if we go below $3000, I will load the fiat cannons and buy more than I was anticipating buying – probably around a grand of BTC a month indefinitely, as long as we stay above $1k. I don’t think it’s impossible for us to test $1k BTC as support, given that it was the top of the last market cycle, but I think the damage that would be done to the crypto space if we fell through $1k would be severe enough to make the opportunity cost of having capital tied up in this market too great for me to continue buying past that level.

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25% at 3k

25% at 2k

25% at 1.5k

25% at 1k

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I am fairly confident they wont all hit and if that is the case I will buy the rest once I see a clear change in trend. That is to say, higher lows and a higher high showing a clear change in market direction. Most indicators should not be relied on in these times of extreme trending unless they are specifically for such a purpose. I would recommend looking at horizontal supports and shorting the breakdown of those if you are playing this bearish, or just sitting on your hands and waiting if you are only playing this bullish.

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I think 3k is the likely target of this bottom from a TA perspective, as that was the target of the descending triangle breakdown, however the crypto market has habit of massively overreacting to the upside and downside. This is probably because it is still a very young and immature market. This immaturity will give massive gains in the future due to the spaces continued levels of high volatility. But at the moment it means we are heading for a bottom between 1.5k and 2.5k (in my opinion, obviously).

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Be patient, buy when people are scared and when the media is gloating and shrieking hysterically, and in a year or two you will have made a lot of money. (Or we will all have lost everything because the price is 0 lol).