Now that bitcoin broke all alleged and imagined support levels technical analysts drew on their charts, it is hard to make any kind of prediction what the next move will be. Communities are full of traders hypothesizing about the bottom, reversals and future developments. Here are some of the most interesting and, in my opinion, plausible predictions:
15.0% at $4500 15.0% at $4250 20.0% at $4000 20.0% at $3750
- 30.0% at $3500
I have been expecting a bottom around $3200 – an 84% retrace from this cycle’s ATH, in line with historical retraces, and aligned with a strong psychological support level with a lot of historical price action in the summer of 2017. I believe the fundamental value of a Bitcoin is somewhere between $1k and $2k, but do not anticipate it getting that low. I expect a “HODLer’s/speculator’s premium” to keep price above fundamental value due to the ideological fervor in the space.
As always, if we go below $3000, I will load the fiat cannons and buy more than I was anticipating buying – probably around a grand of BTC a month indefinitely, as long as we stay above $1k. I don’t think it’s impossible for us to test $1k BTC as support, given that it was the top of the last market cycle, but I think the damage that would be done to the crypto space if we fell through $1k would be severe enough to make the opportunity cost of having capital tied up in this market too great for me to continue buying past that level.
This is my current count on $BTC since the triangle breakdown.
My long term 3.2k prediction from back in june now seems inevitable.
— ?BenjaminBlunts? (@SmartContracter) November 24, 2018
higher low on MFI (next daily should confirm) while making yearly low
is starting to look like bullish divergence which I wanted to see as well
it did not close as pure reversal-type candle but lower tfs are dojis
too early to call it a bottom
my bear/bull completion is 98/2 pic.twitter.com/EWWBdXrBhQ
— CryptoBirb (@crypto_birb) November 25, 2018
Easy to understand why we didn't bounce around $4k looking at this chart. https://t.co/1B4rc8FUVW
— NebraskanGooner (@nebraskangooner) November 25, 2018
25% at 3k
25% at 2k
25% at 1.5k
25% at 1k
I am fairly confident they wont all hit and if that is the case I will buy the rest once I see a clear change in trend. That is to say, higher lows and a higher high showing a clear change in market direction. Most indicators should not be relied on in these times of extreme trending unless they are specifically for such a purpose. I would recommend looking at horizontal supports and shorting the breakdown of those if you are playing this bearish, or just sitting on your hands and waiting if you are only playing this bullish.
I think 3k is the likely target of this bottom from a TA perspective, as that was the target of the descending triangle breakdown, however the crypto market has habit of massively overreacting to the upside and downside. This is probably because it is still a very young and immature market. This immaturity will give massive gains in the future due to the spaces continued levels of high volatility. But at the moment it means we are heading for a bottom between 1.5k and 2.5k (in my opinion, obviously).
Be patient, buy when people are scared and when the media is gloating and shrieking hysterically, and in a year or two you will have made a lot of money. (Or we will all have lost everything because the price is 0 lol).
All altcoins are down as well, with BCH still leading the loser with 17% drop over the 24h, followed by XLM and ADA.
The market is now at $126 billion, at the level of summer 2017 with lots of people having wounds for catching falling knives. Bear in mind that no one really can predict this erratic market and if you are down a lot on your initial investment, patience is your best friend right now. If you are down 90%, exiting now to save losing 5% more is the worst strategy to have.
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