Bitcoin is approaching another U.S. midterm election, and an old market pattern is worth talking about again.
A chart shared by analyst Ali Martinez shows large BTC drawdowns around the previous four midterm cycles:
- 2010: -72%
- 2014: -65%
- 2018: -52%
- 2022: -27%
The pattern looks ugly at first glance, but it needs some context.
The chart does not explain the exact measurement window used for each decline, so these numbers should be treated as a historical comparison rather than proof that midterm elections caused the selloffs.
Broader crypto cycles, liquidity conditions and macro stress also played large roles.
Bitcoin Has Struggled Around Midterm Cycles
The broader record is mixed but still worth watching.
Bitcoin price posted negative fourth-quarter returns in 2014, 2018 and 2022, losing roughly 16.7%, 42.2% and 14.8% in those periods.
There is also a timing pattern around post-election lows. Bitcoin bottomed after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms, although the gap between election day and the eventual low varied significantly.
That means the so-called “midterm curse” is better viewed as a recurring period of stress than a reliable trading rule.
BITCOIN MIDTERM ELECTION CURSE
Look at what happened to $BTC around the previous four US midterm election cycles:
- 2010: Bitcoin fell 72%.
- 2014: Bitcoin fell 65%.
- 2018: Bitcoin fell 52%.
- 2022: Bitcoin fell 27%.
Four consecutive cycles of significant downside. https://t.co/WOIBBYz18C— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 24, 2026
For 2026, Bitcoin is already under pressure before the November 3 election, with macro uncertainty, expensive oil and restrictive financial conditions all weighing on risk assets.
A Practical Risk Framework for Bitcoin Traders
Instead of assuming history will repeat exactly, traders can use the midterm pattern as a risk-management signal.
The first thing to watch is whether Bitcoin keeps making lower lows into the election. If BTC loses recent support and selling volume expands, that would give the historical pattern more weight.
The second is macro confirmation. High oil, rising Treasury yields and a more hawkish Federal Reserve would make the bearish setup more credible.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin holds support, reclaims recent resistance and macro conditions improve, the midterm pattern becomes much less useful.
A simple framework would be:
| Signal | What it could mean |
|---|---|
| BTC loses recent support | Downside risk remains active |
| Oil and yields stay high | Macro pressure continues |
| BTC holds support into election | Historical pattern may weaken |
| BTC reclaims key resistance | Recovery case improves |
The main point is not to trade the election date itself.
The better approach is to use the historical pattern as one part of a broader setup and wait for price, volume and macro conditions to confirm it.
So history is worth keeping in mind, but the election itself is unlikely to be the only thing deciding Bitcoin’s next move.
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