The Bitcoin price enters September 11 at a crucial point after yesterday’s downside targets came into play. In our last Bitcoin daily prediction, we identified $78,031 and $77,615 as the first support levels, warning that losing both could expose BTC to $76,000 and potentially $72,000.
Bitcoin did exactly that, falling below $78,000 and reaching an intraday low near $76,663 as oil prices moved above $105 per barrel and August PPI came in at 5.4% year-over-year.
The Bitcoin price is now around $77,194, with buyers trying to defend the $76,800–$77,600 region. However, today’s CPI report could determine whether BTC recovers toward $80,000 or breaks deeper into the 2026 range. Here is what the chart and macro data say about today’s Bitcoin price.
What you'll learn 👉
What Could Drive Bitcoin Price Today?
The main thing that could move Bitcoin today is the U.S. CPI report coming out at 1:30 p.m.
Core CPI is expected to come in at 0.2% for the month and 2.5% for the year. Last time it was 0.2% and 2.4%. Headline CPI is expected at 0.1% for the month and 3.4% for the year, same as before.
The pressure is on after August PPI hit 5.4% for the year. The Bitcoin price fell about $1,000 within minutes of that release. That drop showed how closely BTC still watches inflation numbers and what the Fed might do with rates.
If CPI comes in hot, it could weigh on risk assets. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.85%, which doesn’t help.. A softer CPI print could have the opposite effect and give buyers room to recover lost levels.
Oil is another risk. Brent crude has moved above $105 per barrel amid renewed Middle East tensions. Higher energy prices can add to inflation concerns, making today’s CPI release even more important ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 meeting.
What Is the Bitcoin Chart Saying?
We had a look at the chart, and the short-term structure remains bearish. The BTC price has declined through several support levels after failing to maintain the $79,600 area. The latest candles pushed toward $77,200, with the chart showing a key blue support around $76,800 and another major level near $76,200. A red support line is also visible around $78,700, meaning BTC needs to reclaim that area before the recovery becomes more convincing.
The momentum indicators provide a mixed picture. The Ultimate Oscillator is at 47.32, below the 50 midpoint, showing that bullish momentum remains limited. The Stochastic indicator is more interesting, with the two readings at 17.55 and 15.39, placing it below the 20 oversold threshold. That leaves room for a short-term bounce if buyers defend support, but an oversold reading alone does not guarantee a reversal.
On the upside, the first important resistance is around $79,600, followed by the $80,400–$80,500 region. A move above that area would improve the structure and put $83,000 back into consideration. On the downside, losing $76,800 could expose the $76,200 area, with $72,000 remaining the deeper target if selling accelerates.
Related Bitcoin News: Bitcoin Price News: Analyst Maps a Path From $80K to $160K
Where Will BTC Price Go Today?
Bullish Path: $79,600–$83,000
The bullish path requires BTC to hold the $76,800–$77,600 region and reclaim $78,700. A move through $79,600 would open the way toward $80,400–$80,500. If CPI comes in below expectations and buyers clear that resistance, the Bitcoin price could extend toward $83,000.
Base Path: $76,800–$79,600
The base case is continued range trading around the current levels. BTC could hold between $76,800 and $79,600 if CPI produces limited follow-through and traders wait for the Fed meeting. The Stochastic reading below 20 gives room for a rebound, but the UO at 47.32 shows that momentum has not yet turned bullish.
Bearish Path: $72,000–$76,200
The bearish path activates if the BTC price loses $76,800 and then breaks $76,200. A hotter CPI reading could strengthen this scenario by keeping rate concerns elevated. In that case, the Bitcoin price could test $72,000, extending the decline from the $80,000 area.
For September 11, $76,800 is the key support and $79,600 is the first major resistance. CPI will likely determine which level breaks first, with $80,500 opening the route toward $83,000 and a loss of $76,200 putting $72,000 at risk.
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