Ever since Bitcoin failed to break through the 10 thousand USD mark, the currency has been gradually dropping, seemingly stuck in a downwards trend. During the last months’ time, the price fell from $9920 USD to its lowest point since February at $6300 USD. However we have seen a bit of a recovery in the past few days, with the coin gaining $400 USD to end the Tuesday at $6,730.93 USD. As a result, Bitcoin remains the most dominant cryptocurrency in the world with a market cap of $115,118,840,015 USD
The recent recovery has made many people wonder if Bitcoin is finally about to embark on the rocky road to 20k once again. The arguments we’ve seen included some elaborate points. Some think that Bitcoin’s price has fallen down enough for institutional money to start moving in; this sentiment has a couple of issues attached to it. First of all, the institutions are most likely already invested in Bitcoin, as various major capital sources have confirmed their interest for this rising asset class.
As the second point, this money might not be interested in seeing the price go up just yet. It is likely that these major “players” want to see Bitcoin go even lower. Some of them might be looking to reach an even lower accumulation price while others might be looking to potentially kill off the crypto markets, as they represent a “danger” for traditional financial markets and rigid fiat-based structures.
Others cite positive announcements from the SEC/various crypto analysts and influencers as the possible catalyst for the long-awaited recovery. However, these never matter much in the grand scheme of things as big money doesn’t really care if John McAfee will eat his penis on national TV or not.
Most of the crypto market remains bearish mid-term. The graph posted above (originally posted by @tradingroomapp) shows that we clearly aren’t out of the woods just yet. From the TA side of things, BTC looks weak. The volume has been shockingly low as of late, even though this latest recovery saw around $12 billion USD added to the total cap of the crypto market. Many feel that this won’t be enough to break out of the bear trend and see the latest upswing as a classic case of the “dead cat bounce” pattern. The latest bounce is therefore only temporary and will most likely fail by the end of June. As the graph above shows, the probability that we’ll break out of the current trend line is very low. Still, if BTC price experiences a rise of up to $7-7.3k, then we could be going all the way up to $8k.
What’s more likely to happen is a continuation of the down-trend. Bears still dominate the market and a sell-off could take use to the $6000 USD ranges by the end of the week. The probability of this happening will increase greatly if BTC closes this Tuesday (per UTC) below its 10 day MA. The graph above gives you a long term insight into the asset; mid 5 thousands look like the nearest strong support for BTC that could still be taken all the way down to $4500 USD if the bears attack it strong enough. As it stands right now, we are not out of the woods just yet and the road to 20k will have to wait.