Gold is under pressure again as surging bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar create a difficult environment for the precious metal. Yet one part of the market is moving in the opposite direction — investors continue to increase their exposure through gold-backed ETFs.
Gold is down around 2% this week and recently traded near $4,300. Rising yields have been a major headwind because gold produces no interest, making yield-bearing assets comparatively more attractive. The stronger dollar has added another obstacle. Reuters
Still, Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole S. Hansen sees something important beneath the weakness. He points to resilient ETF demand as evidence that investors may be treating today’s unusually high yields differently than they have in previous cycles.
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Gold ETF Holdings Tell a Different Story
Hansen’s chart compares total known gold ETF holdings with the gold price, and the divergence is striking.
The white line represents ETF holdings, which have climbed to roughly 100.75 million ounces. The blue line tracks gold, sitting around $4,296 on the chart.
Both moved largely together through much of 2025. ETF holdings climbed as gold rallied, eventually reaching a major peak around February 2026 when gold was trading above $5,000.
What has happened since then is much more interesting.
Gold suffered a substantial correction and currently trades roughly $1,000 below its early-2026 peak. ETF holdings initially declined as well, but they have since staged a powerful recovery. Hansen’s chart shows holdings approaching their February high even though gold remains considerably below its corresponding price peak.
Recent industry data support the broader ETF-demand story. Global gold-backed ETFs recently moved above 4,250 tonnes of bullion, while the World Gold Council has reported strong investor interest despite elevated yields.
Gold has so far managed the stress test from higher yields and a stronger dollar remarkably well, trading down around 2% on the week without challenging key support levels. Meanwhile, ETF holdings have continued to rise and are now approaching the February peak, when gold was… https://t.co/KqGyD8WN38 pic.twitter.com/8kFG52nEQg
— Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) September 25, 2026
In other words, investors appear willing to accumulate gold exposure without waiting for the gold price itself to return to record territory.
Why Higher Yields Could Eventually Help Gold
Normally, rapidly rising real yields are bad news for gold. Investors can earn attractive inflation-adjusted returns from government bonds without taking on gold’s price risk.
But Hansen argues there is another side to the equation.
Persistently high borrowing costs increase debt-servicing pressure across governments, businesses and other leveraged areas of the financial system. At some point, investors may begin viewing elevated yields not simply as competition for gold, but as evidence of growing fiscal and financial risks.
Hansen has previously pointed to this unusual divergence. U.S. 10-year real yields recently reached their highest levels in roughly two decades, yet gold ETF investors did not respond with the type of liquidation seen during previous periods of rising real yields.
That does not mean higher yields have suddenly become bullish for gold. They remain an immediate obstacle, especially alongside a strong dollar.
But the chart indicates that an important group of gold investors is looking beyond that short-term pressure.
Read also: This Analyst’s Gold Price Prediction Is Surprisingly Simple
Something Bigger May Be Building
This is what makes Hansen’s chart particularly interesting.
Gold is well below its early-2026 peak, yet ETF holdings are already close to recovering their previous high. If ETF holdings were simply following price, investors might be expected to remain considerably less exposed after gold’s correction.
Instead, exposure has returned aggressively.
That could indicate investors are increasingly using gold as portfolio protection against debt, fiscal and financial-system risks rather than simply trading it based on interest-rate movements.
Gold still needs to withstand the immediate pressure from yields and the dollar, and ETF accumulation alone does not guarantee higher prices. But Hansen’s chart shows that beneath a relatively weak gold price, investment demand is behaving much more strongly than the headline price action would imply.
That divergence may ultimately prove more important than this week’s decline.
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