Hedera has continued its recent recovery, with the HBAR price trading around $0.093 after pumping roughly 5% today. The token has been showing considerably stronger price action compared with its summer lows, giving HBAR holders something to be optimistic about after a difficult first half of the year.
The move is also arriving alongside strength in other assets connected with tokenization and institutional blockchain infrastructure. Quant and Ondo have posted substantial gains recently, creating a favorable backdrop for HBAR.
But analyst Nology believes Hedera could have considerably more room to run. In his latest analysis, he said he has adjusted his HBAR projection higher based on recent price action, pointing to what he identifies as a nested Elliott Wave 1-2 structure.
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Analyst Raises His Hedera Price Outlook
Nology’s chart shows HBAR recovering strongly after falling toward the $0.06 region during August.
According to his Elliott Wave interpretation, that low potentially completed a much larger corrective structure. HBAR subsequently rallied toward $0.08, pulled back toward $0.07 and then accelerated toward $0.10.
The analyst interprets these movements as nested wave 1-2 formations. In Elliott Wave analysis, this type of structure can precede an increasingly powerful third-wave advance if the wave count remains valid.
That explains his comment that HBAR looks like it is “getting ready to load up.”
The chart maps an initial move toward approximately $0.10-$0.11 before a possible retracement. From there, the projected path becomes substantially more ambitious.
Nology’s roadmap points toward the $0.14-$0.15 region, followed by a larger resistance cluster around $0.16-$0.18. His more aggressive scenario eventually takes HBAR toward approximately $0.20-$0.21.
From the current $0.093 level, reaching $0.20 would represent roughly 115% upside.
Importantly, these are projected Elliott Wave paths rather than fixed price targets. The dotted lines on the chart illustrate several possible advances and corrections along the way, and the analyst explicitly notes that his setup has an invalidation point.
The $0.07-$0.084 region appears particularly important from the chart. A substantial return into or below this area would call the bullish wave structure into question.
Hedera Is Running Into Its First Major Test
Before traders start thinking about $0.20, HBAR has much closer obstacles to overcome.
The chart places the token immediately beneath a resistance region around $0.105-$0.11. This area corresponds with previous price action and represents the first major hurdle in Nology’s projected path.
Beyond that, approximately $0.12-$0.13 becomes another important zone. The chart then shows considerably heavier resistance between roughly $0.14 and $0.18.
This makes the $0.17-$0.18 region particularly significant. Several of Nology’s projected Elliott Wave counts converge around that area, indicating he expects substantial volatility before HBAR could attempt to reach the upper target near $0.20-$0.21.
The broader technical picture has nevertheless improved. HBAR is trading above its 7-, 30- and 200-day simple moving averages, according to the market data accompanying the latest move, with the 7-day SMA around $0.0923. That puts the current price just above an immediate short-term reference level.
Maintaining the recent recovery above roughly $0.09 would keep attention on $0.10-$0.11. Losing the recent structure would instead bring lower support areas back into focus.
Hedera Gets an Enterprise Boost
The technical recovery is arriving alongside developments that strengthen Hedera’s enterprise-focused narrative.
One involves IDTrust, an identity infrastructure platform built on Hedera, which recently became available through the IBM Cloud Catalog. The platform is designed to provide verifiable digital credentials for AI agents and enterprise applications.
The development is particularly relevant as autonomous AI agents become increasingly capable of conducting financial and commercial activities. Those systems need mechanisms for proving identity, permissions and authority without relying solely on traditional human-centered verification systems.
Hedera’s technology is being positioned as infrastructure for that emerging market.
There is also a broader regulatory story developing around tokenization. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has been advocating for modernized market infrastructure, including greater use of blockchain technology and tokenized assets. The agency is also moving ahead with its Frontier Forum series, with the first forum scheduled for October 28 and focused on tokenization, collateral and market infrastructure.
That does not amount to an endorsement of Hedera by the CFTC. However, greater institutional and regulatory interest in tokenized financial infrastructure could benefit networks competing to provide compliant enterprise blockchain services.
Could HBAR Really Reach $0.20?
Nology’s Hedera chart presents a compelling bullish scenario, but HBAR still has significant work ahead before $0.20 becomes realistic.
The immediate challenge is moving convincingly through roughly $0.10-$0.11. Above that, the $0.14-$0.15 region and especially $0.17-$0.18 would present increasingly difficult technical tests.
If HBAR successfully works through those areas while maintaining the Elliott Wave structure identified by Nology, his upper $0.20-$0.21 region would become more relevant.
The opposite scenario matters just as much. A deeper reversal toward the $0.08 region would weaken the recent recovery, while losing the broader $0.07 area would undermine the bullish structure shown on the chart.
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