XRP price is once again under pressure, trading around $1.49 after being rejected from the $1.62 area. The latest decline has pushed XRP back toward an important short-term support zone, and technical indicators examined by Vincent Van Code currently paint a bearish picture.
However, Santiment’s latest on-chain data looks positiive.. While XRP’s short-term chart points to continued weakness, its 365-day MVRV indicates that traders active over the past year are sitting on substantial unrealized losses; a condition Santiment views as increasingly interesting from a longer-term perspective.
What you'll learn 👉
Vincent Van Code Sees More Downside Risk
Van Code’s dashboard shows XRP at approximately $1.4894, down 5.55%, with four technical signals bearish and none bullish.
His analysis focuses on the rejection from roughly $1.62. XRP subsequently fell beneath key exponential moving averages, while RSI dropped below 30 into oversold territory. At the same time, the MACD histogram moved deeply negative.
Taken together, Van Code believes these indicators point to strong bearish momentum and an increased chance that the correction continues.
The immediate level to watch is $1.4942, identified as the recent swing-low support. XRP is already trading around this area, making the current price particularly important.
XRP trading on the support, 1.49, with most Tags showing bearish signals.
— Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) September 23, 2026
It is likely the current downtrend will continue:
XRPUSDT has experienced a sharp rejection from highs near $1.6200 and is now in a steep corrective phase. Price has broken below key EMAs and RSI has… pic.twitter.com/VX6ZQsSxeF
His dashboard identifies $1.6182 as resistance. A recovery toward and eventually above that area would substantially improve the short-term structure. Continued trading below $1.4942, however, would leave XRP vulnerable to lower support levels.
There is one important counterpoint: an RSI below 30 indicates that selling has already become extreme by that particular momentum measure. Oversold conditions can persist during strong declines, so this is not automatically a reversal signal, but it does mean chasing the downside carries its own risk.
Santiment’s XRP Data Tells a Different Story
Santiment is looking at XRP through an entirely different lens.
Its chart compares the 365-day MVRV ratios of XRP, Dogecoin, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink. This metric essentially measures how much profit or loss the relevant group of holders is carrying relative to its cost basis.
The differences are substantial.
XRP’s 365-day MVRV sits around -11.75%, while Dogecoin is even lower at approximately -19.26%. By comparison, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink are slightly above zero in Santiment’s chart.
That means the average XRP tokens represented by this MVRV cohort are being held at an unrealized loss.
Santiment interprets deeply negative MVRV readings as potentially favorable from a longer-term risk/reward perspective. The reasoning is straightforward: when large portions of the market are already underwater, there are fewer holders sitting on profits that can immediately be realized.
But negative MVRV does not mean XRP has reached its bottom. An asset can remain below zero or move substantially deeper into negative territory while its price continues falling.
Read also: ChatGPT Predicts a Stunning Finish to 2026 for XRP!
So Which XRP Signal Is Important?
Both can be correct because they are measuring completely different things.
Van Code is examining XRP’s immediate price structure and momentum. His indicators show sellers controlling the short-term trend, with $1.4942 under pressure and $1.6182 acting as an important resistance level.
Santiment is examining the profitability of market participants over a much longer period. Its data shows XRP holders are considerably further underwater than comparable BTC, ETH and LINK cohorts.
That creates an unusual setup: XRP can remain technically bearish in the short term while simultaneously becoming more interesting from a longer-term valuation and holder-profitability perspective.
For now, $1.49 is the immediate battleground. Losing that area would reinforce Van Code’s bearish technical case. But the deeper XRP falls below the cost basis of longer-term market participants, the more negative its MVRV could become — potentially strengthening the longer-term contrarian setup Santiment is watching.
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