Ripple’s XRP is down 2.47% to $1.00 in 24 hours, underperforming a slightly weaker broader market as collapsing ETF demand and a long liquidation cascade add pressure to the token.
Spot XRP ETF inflows fell to zero, removing an important source of institutional buying, and $8.45 million in XRP long positions were liquidated, forcing leveraged traders out of their positions.
The broader crypto market has also turned cautious ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report, with thin exchange order books adding to the downside pressure.
That leaves the XRP price testing the psychological $1 level at a critical point. Bulls on X are calling $1 an exceptional buying opportunity, but prediction-market data paints a less comfortable picture for anyone expecting this level to hold.
What you'll learn 👉
XRP Bulls Defend $1, But Some Traders Expect More Downside
The $1 level has become a major psychological battleground for XRP. Market analyst CryptoBull argued that the XRP price will “never trade below $1 again,” showing the confidence some bulls still have in the level.
#XRP will never trade below $1 again. Ever!
— CryptoBull (@CryptoBull2020) August 10, 2026
Coach JV takes a more cautious view, calling $1 an “unbelievable buying price” but also saying XRP could move lower before November. His plan is to keep dollar-cost averaging without leverage or emotional trading.
XRP at $1 is an unbelievable buying price.
— Coach, JV (@Coachjv_) August 11, 2026
As I’ve been saying, I still believe we could go lower before November. And if we do, I’ll continue to DCA. No leverage. No chasing. No emotion.
Have a plan. Stay disciplined. Practice what you preach. DCA. Stay patient. Let the market… pic.twitter.com/kybZ7GdEEQ
That second view lines up more closely with the prediction-market data. A Polymarket market tracked on August 3 gave XRP a 56% probability of trading below $1 by August 31, compared with a 32% probability of finishing above $1.20.
The market gave the XRP price only a 4% chance of ending August above $1.40 and a 2% chance of exceeding $1.80. Trading volume on that market had passed $82,500.
Also, Polymarket’s market odds are far more bearish. The market gives XRP a 93% probability of trading below $1 by September 1, with the $1 contract carrying about $51,159 in volume and Yes shares priced around $0.95. The odds fall to 8% for XRP to reach $1.20, 2% for $1.40, and just 1% for $1.60.
On the downside, the market gives XRP roughly a 6% chance of falling below $0.80, 2% below $0.60, and around 1% below $0.40. With more than $375,000 in total volume across the listed price contracts, the strongest market expectation is therefore that XRP remains below $1 rather than stages a major recovery above it.
The XRP Price Chart Points to $0.67
The weekly chart gives bulls another problem. The XRP price has reached the $1.00 area after losing the $1.0085 weekly PD array, which had acted as an important price reference.
The latest candle is trading around $1.0036 on the chart, putting the XRP just below that level. A clean weekly close beneath $1 would make the loss of the PD array more convincing and leave fewer nearby support levels between the XRP price and the next major zone.
The bigger target on the chart is $0.6709, which marks the lower end of the three-month imbalance. The XRP price is now moving toward that zone as the market works to fill the gap in the weekly structure.
That would mean a decline of roughly 33% from $1.00 to $0.6709. The level also lines up with the lower orange zone marked on the chart, making $0.67 an important area to watch if $1 fails.
There is still a recovery path for the XRP price. Reclaiming $1.0085 would give bulls their first technical win, but the chart shows a much larger resistance area near $1.54. XRP would need to recover from around $1.00 to $1.54, a move of roughly 54%, before the broader bearish structure shown on the weekly chart begins to look materially weaker.
Related XRP NEws: 5 Reasons XRP Bulls Shouldn’t Get Too Excited Yet
Our Take: $1 May Not Be the Final XRP Price Floor
The data does not support treating $1 as a confirmed bottom yet. The XRP price has lost the $1.0085 weekly PD array, prediction markets put the odds of a sub-$1 move at 56%, and the next major chart level is near $0.6709. The immediate setup therefore leaves room for another leg lower if XRP cannot reclaim $1.0085 on a weekly basis.
Still, $1 can produce a strong reaction if buyers step in. A recovery above $1.0085 would weaken the immediate bearish setup, and a move back toward $1.10 would give bulls more evidence that demand is returning. For now, the $1 XRP price is a decision zone, not a confirmed floor. The next major test is whether buyers can defend it or the market sends Ripple XRP price toward the $0.67 area.
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