XRP is now at $1.01 after dipping 2.5% today alongside the rest of the market. The token has been under pressure for weeks, and the price action has been absolutely horrible. I blame the negative Clarity Act news; the Senate’s failure to pass the bill before recess has hit XRP harder than most assets.
The broader crypto market is also in the red. Bitcoin crashed to below $64,000, but altcoins are bleeding. XRP is one of the worst performers, which basically shows its sensitivity to regulatory uncertainty.
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CasiTrades: Momentum Is Starting to Show Its Hand
CasiTrades, an analyst I like to cover on CaptainAltcoin, weighed in again on the situation around XRP price. Her latest update is direct.
“Momentum Is Starting to Show Its Hand! Another week kicking off, and we’re starting to see momentum come through. IMO, XRP is STILL working its way toward the $0.87 macro support on Coinbase. The expected pauses along the way are EXACTLY what we want to see!”
She highlighted $1.00 as a major psychological level and Binance’s macro .786 retracement. Continued reaction and consolidation here makes complete sense – it gives the RSI time to cool off and selling pressure to weaken. From there, she is watching for momentum to build into a stronger break, potentially around midweek.
XRP Chart Analysis: Elliott Wave Count Points Lower
The attached 4‑hour chart from CasiTrades shows an Elliott Wave count with Fibonacci extension projections, layered with two overlapping wave interpretations and horizontal support and resistance zones.
Completed waves (left side, July):
- Wave (1) down to roughly $1.05 (July 13 low)
- Wave (2) up to roughly $1.17 (July 21 high) – a sharp corrective rally that also touched the descending red trendline
- Wave (3) down is currently in progress, with a nested (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) sub‑count visible in the July 21–28 zone
Current position: Price is sitting inside what is labeled wave (3) of the larger degree, having broken below the horizontal green support zone (~$1.07–$1.09) and the orange 0.382 retracement level at $1.0363.
Projected forward path:
- Wave (3) is projected to bottom near $0.95 (near the 0.618 extension at $0.9411 and the 1.618 extension at $0.9414)
- Wave (4) is projected as a corrective bounce back up toward $1.00–$1.04 (0.382 retracement at $1.0363)
- Wave (5) is then projected to extend the decline down to the $0.85–$0.86 zone, aligning with two separate Fibonacci confluences: the 1.618 extension at $0.8543 and $0.8501
Key Fibonacci and Horizontal Levels:
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 0.786 retracement | $1.0854 | Resistance above current price |
| 0.382 retracement | $1.0363 | Near‑term resistance |
| 1.618 extension | $0.9886 | Wave (4) target area |
| 0.618 / 1.618 extension | $0.9411 / $0.9414 | Wave (3) bottom confluence |
| 0.618 / 1.618 extension | $0.8501 / $0.8543 | Wave (5) bottom confluence |
Green shaded zones mark two support and demand areas: one just below current price (~$1.05–$1.09, already broken) and a larger one at $0.85–$0.95 , where the chartist expects the whole corrective structure to terminate.
RSI (bottom panel): Currently reading 36.62 – in bearish territory but not yet oversold (below 30). RSI has been making a series of lower highs since late July (peaks around 75 → 60 → 50s), which is a bearish momentum divergence pattern consistent with the wave‑down thesis.
Synthesis: This is a bearish Elliott Wave count arguing XRP is still mid‑decline within a larger wave (3)-(4)-(5) structure, targeting a final low near $0.85–$0.95 before the correction completes. The near‑term roadmap: a further push down toward $0.95–$0.99 (completing wave 3), a bounce to roughly $1.00–$1.04 (wave 4), then a final leg down to $0.85–$0.86 (wave 5).
XRP News: Validator Votes and ETF Flows
Ripple’s validators voted “yes” on two key amendments: XLS‑65 for single‑asset vaults and XLS‑66 for a native lending protocol. This aims to enable institutional‑grade, fixed‑term lending directly on the XRP Ledger.
The proposals have about 40% validator support but need 80% for two weeks to activate. A security re‑audit found no critical issues. The amendments would significantly expand XRPL’s DeFi capabilities if they pass.
Spot XRP ETFs had a net inflow of $1.01 million for the latest week; a positive streak. However, this marks a sharp deceleration from the previous week’s $14.9 million inflow. Total ETF holdings now represent 1.49% of XRP’s circulating supply.
The slowdown in ETF inflows shows the broader regulatory uncertainty. Institutions are cautious.
Read also: We Asked 3 AI Models to Predict XRP’s Price by 2028
Do I Agree with Casi on XRP Price Prediction?
CasiTrades’ Elliott Wave count is one of the cleanest bearish setups I have seen on XRP. The wave structure is clear, the Fibonacci confluences are solid, and the RSI divergence supports the thesis. The $0.87 target aligns with the Polymarket odds of a drop below $1.00, which currently sit at roughly 67%.
That said, Elliott Wave counts are inherently subjective. Multiple valid interpretations often exist simultaneously, as shown by CasiTrades’ own dual pink and purple labeling. The $0.87 target is one analyst’s scenario, not a technical certainty.
I agree with the bearish structure. The price action has been weak, the Clarity Act news is negative, and the momentum indicators point lower. A drop to $0.95 and then $0.87 is the most likely path.
But I am not buying XRP here. I want to see the wave structure complete and a bullish reversal signal before considering an entry. Patience is the real edge.
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