Polymarket Traders Give Bitcoin Just a 3% Chance of Hitting $150K This Year – Here’s the Real Chart
Bitcoin traders have spent most of this cycle talking about six-figure targets, so Polymarket’s latest number is hard to ignore. The prediction market is giving the BTC price only about a 3% chance of reaching $150,000 before 31st December 2026.
That is surprisingly a low probability for a target that has been discussed repeatedly across the crypto market. The really interesting part is not just the 3% number, it is how quickly confidence has faded.
What you'll learn 👉
What Polymarket’s Data Actually Shows
This Polymarket contract on BTC reaching $150K has attracted more than $27.1 million of trading volume, meaning that this is far from being a marginal market with just a couple of trades.
As you see on the chart, there was a remarkable shift in sentiment in the last year. The probability was close to 0% by the end of 2025, rose to about 20% by December and then rose again to almost 80% in March 2026 only to drop dramatically to the current 3%.
It does not mean that traders believe that Bitcoin will never reach $150K. It means that traders doubt that Bitcoin can achieve this milestone in the next few months. The time frame tells everything here, the probability has reached the peak of about 80% in March 2026 and after that has been going down continuously.
Bitcoin failed to hold the earlier rally, and has remained below the major moving average and still hasn’t managed to build momentum to break above the previous high of $140K. When a market repeatedly fails to reclaim key resistance levels, prediction traders usually reduce the probability of extreme upside targets. That is exactly what appears to have happened here.
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Bitcoin’s Real Chart: Does It Support These Odds?
We took a look at the BTC chart, and the technical picture is much less bullish than the earlier hype. The BTC price is trading around $64,714, still below the 100-day moving average at $69,253. In other words, Bitcoin is trading 6.6% below the level of this trend line.
The bigger picture reveals even more problems. Bitcoin reached its highest level of $140,000 by the end of 2025 and lost 53.8% of its value since then. For the BTC price to move from $64,714 to $150,000 it needs to go up by about 132% by the end of the year.
The chart shows that Bitcoin attempts to recover, but there are quite a few obstacles on its way. There are levels of $69,253, followed by $70,000, $72,000, and finally $80,000 that need to be overcome before any talk about all-time highs can happen.
However, the chart doesn’t tell an all-bear story. Currently, daily RSI is at the level of 52.2 that is almost neutral and, at the same time, the indicator is showing higher lows despite the lower lows in the price movement during the first months of the year. Traders usually pay attention to such bullish divergences as they show that selling pressure begins to weaken. It is a good sign for the upcoming recovery, yet it is quite different from a breakout.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: What’s Next
From what I see on the chart, there is no reason to support the possibility of a $150K target by 2026. The BTC price will require an impressive rally within a short period of time, which is not shown in the current chart structure yet.
The more likely scenario in the short term is a struggle between the levels of $69K-$70K. Should BTC manage to break back above this range and maintain the level, further attention will be paid to the $80K and $100K level.
The scenario of rising towards $150K appears much more probable in the future cycle. For now, Polymarket’s 3% probability may sound harsh, but the chart is sending a very similar message: the BTC price is trying to recover, not racing toward $150,000.
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