Bitcoin starts the new week trading near $64,800 after a volatile July that saw sharp selloffs followed by a steady recovery. The asset is up roughly 15% from the July low near $56,000, but momentum has cooled as price approaches a key resistance level. Traders are watching whether the recovery has legs or if another leg lower is coming.
This week brings a packed calendar that could move markets. The Fed rate decision, July PCE inflation data, and earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon all hit the wire. For Bitcoin, the immediate technical setup and institutional flow data will likely set the tone for the next seven days.
What you'll learn 👉
Bitcoin Chart Analysis: Recovery Faces Resistance
Bitcoin is attempting to recover from a sharp correction that dropped price from $66,900 to the $63,666 swing low. The 1-hour chart shows a base forming near $64,000 with higher lows developing over the last 24 hours. Price now tests the $64,800–$65,000 zone, which acted as support before the breakdown.
The descending trendline drawn across recent lower highs is being tested. A confirmed hourly close above $65,000 would break that structure and open the path to $65,400–$65,600 as the next technical obstacle. Above that, the $66,000–$66,300 region is the major resistance where multiple previous highs formed.
On the downside, $64,400 serves as first support. Loss of that level would weaken the recovery and increase the risk of a retest of the $63,666 swing low. A break below that recent low would likely resume the broader downtrend toward $63,200–$63,000.
Bitcoin: Key Indicators to Watch
The short-term RSI readings show overbought conditions, with RSI(6) at 81.81 and RSI(12) at 71.63. That shows strong buying pressure during the bounce but also suggests a pause or minor pullback could occur before any further upside. RSI(24) at 59.10 shows the broader recovery is not excessively extended.
The MACD histogram has flipped from negative to near flat, with the MACD and signal lines converging. This shows bearish momentum has weakened, but confirmation needs a stronger bullish crossover with expanding green histogram bars. Volume has been moderate during the recovery, not expanding. That suggests buyers are in control but conviction is not especially strong.
Order book data shows bid liquidity building near $64,000–$64,300, while sell-side pressure is concentrated around $65,000–$65,200. A break above that sell wall would likely trigger short liquidations and accelerate upside momentum.
Bitcoin News This Week
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows improved meaningfully in mid-July after heavy outflows in May and June. A five-day inflow run brought in about $727 million before a $225.2 million outflow on July 23. July net inflows reached $200.2 million by July 19, a clear improvement from previous months.
The SEC added crypto rulemaking to its 2026 regulatory agenda, including token offerings and broker-dealer custody rules. That shows U.S. policy is moving toward clearer rules for digital assets. The SEC’s crypto task force remains active and reinforces that rulemaking is a live priority.
BitMart announced it would shut down after nine years, reminding traders that counterparty risk still matters across crypto markets despite the broader constructive tone.
Read also: XRP Price Has Reached The Most Important Level, Analyst Warns
Macro Events That Could Move Bitcoin Price
1. Markets React to US/Iran Pausing Strikes – Today, 6 PM ET
Geopolitical risk remains a wildcard. Any escalation or de-escalation could affect risk assets broadly.
2. July Consumer Confidence – Tuesday
A miss here could reinforce recession fears and weigh on risk-on assets.
3. July Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday
Markets expect rates to hold steady. Any dovish tilt or hints about future cuts would support Bitcoin.
4. Microsoft and Meta Report Earnings – Wednesday
Tech sector performance often correlates with risk appetite. Strong results could lift sentiment.
5. July PCE Inflation Data – Thursday
Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A cooler reading supports rate cut expectations.
6. Apple and Amazon Report Earnings – Thursday
These reports will set the tone for late-week risk appetite and liquidity flows.
7. July Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations – Friday
Final readings could sway Fed expectations heading into August.
Key Events This Week:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 26, 2026
1. Markets React to US/Iran Pausing Strikes – Today, 6 PM ET
2. July Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday
3. July Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday
4. Microsoft, $MSFT, Meta, $META, Report Earnings – Wednesday
5. July PCE Inflation data – Thursday…
Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Next 7 Days
The short-term direction hinges on the $65,000 level. A decisive hourly close above $65,000 with expanding volume would likely trigger a move toward $65,400 and then $66,000–$66,300. That scenario would change the short-term structure back in favor of the bulls.
However, the overbought RSI and moderate volume suggest buyers need confirmation. If Bitcoin fails to break $65,000 and shows a bearish rejection candle, a pullback to $64,400–$64,000 is the most likely outcome. A break below $63,666 would invalidate the recovery and target the $63,200–$63,000 region.
Expect consolidation between $64,000 and $65,000 through Wednesday’s Fed decision, with a breakout likely following the PCE data and tech earnings later in the week. The overall trend remains neutral until Bitcoin reclaims $66,000 or breaks below $63,666.
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