The BTC price is down 2.54% to $77,061.66 in 24 hours as hotter U.S. inflation, higher oil prices and rising Treasury yields weigh on risk assets. The August PPI showed annual inflation at 5.4%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, triggering a roughly $1,000 Bitcoin sell-off as traders priced in tighter monetary conditions.
Brent crude has also moved above $100 per barrel, and the 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.85%, adding pressure to crypto. The immediate battle is around the $77,600–$77,900 support zone, with $80,000 as the next upside level and $76,100 as a downside target.
Yet beyond the short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s 2028 halving is creating a much bigger question: could the historical halving pattern put the $232K price within reach?
What you'll learn 👉
Bitcoin’s Halving Pattern Is Changing
Jesse Myers points to a clear pattern across Bitcoin’s previous halvings. After the 2012 halving, the BTC price rallied about 100x over the following 12 months. The 2016 halving was followed by roughly a 30x move over 18 months, and the 2020 halving preceded an 8x rally over the same 18-month period. These numbers show a clear reduction in returns as Bitcoin’s market value has grown.
The 2024 cycle introduced an important difference. The Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high before the April 2024 halving, meaning traders had started positioning for the supply reduction ahead of the event itself.
Myers estimates that BTC gained about 4x during the 18 months before the 2024 halving, followed by roughly a 2x move during the 18 months after it. His argument is that investors now know the halving schedule and may attempt to buy ahead of the event instead of waiting for the actual supply reduction.
That matters for the next cycle because the 2028 halving is about 1.6 years away. If investors repeat the pre-halving behavior seen in 2024, Bitcoin could spend much of that period repricing expectations before the block reward is cut again.
Could the 2028 Halving Put the $232K Price in Play?
The chart gives Myers’ main calculation. He starts with a Bitcoin obttom of $58,000 and applies the 4x increase seen during the 18 months before the 2024 halving. A 4x move from $58,000 produces $232,000, which becomes his potential target for the April 2028 halving.
It's time to think about the 2028 halving and what it could mean for BTC price.
— Jesse Myers (@Croesus_BTC) September 9, 2026
As of now, only 1.6 years until the next halving. After prior halvings:
– 2012: ~100x rally over 12 months
– 2016: ~30x rally over 18 months
– 2020: ~8x rally over 18 months
The halving has been… pic.twitter.com/t4GvHTcgEr
The calculation is straightforward: $58,000 × 4 = $232,000. From there, Myers applies the approximate 2x post-halving performance from the 2024 cycle, taking Bitcoin from $232,000 to $464,000 during the second half of 2029. These are scenario calculations, not guaranteed targets, and they depend on the 2024 pattern repeating.
The chart also shows Bitcoin’s diminishing new supply. The block subsidy fell from 50 BTC in 2012 to 25 BTC in 2016, 12.5 BTC in 2020, 6.25 BTC in 2024 and is scheduled to fall to 3.125 BTC at the 2028 halving. The graphic indicates that only 4.4% of Bitcoin’s maximum 21 million supply remains to be mined, meaning future halvings will reduce new issuance from an already smaller base.
This creates an important difference from the early Bitcoin cycles. A smaller supply reduction may produce smaller percentage effects, but the total number of new BTC entering the market also becomes increasingly limited. If demand rises at the same time as new issuance falls, the supply-demand balance could support higher prices.
Related Bitcoin News: Bitcoin Price Warning: BTC May Have Just Flashed a False Bull Market Start
What the $232K Scenario Means for Bitcoin
The $232K price is possible under Myers’ framework if Bitcoin repeats the roughly 4x pre-halving move from the 2024 cycle. From the $77,061.66 price, however, the BTC price would first need to reach and hold higher levels before that calculation becomes relevant, and the path could include major drawdowns.
The near-term setup remains tied to macro conditions. Bitcoin needs to defend the $77,600–$77,900 support shelf to keep $80,000 in view, with $76,100 marking the next downside reference. The upcoming CPI report could influence interest-rate expectations and therefore the amount of liquidity available to risk assets.
However, the 2028 halving gives Bitcoin another supply reduction, with the block subsidy scheduled to fall from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. If the pre-halving pattern from 2024 repeats, Myers’ calculation puts the $232K price in play by April 2028, followed by a potential $464K level after another 2x move.
The key uncertainty is whether diminishing halving returns continue or the Bitcoin price eventually breaks that pattern as institutional demand and limited new supply become larger factors.
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