Market technician Patrick Karim shared a striking long-term chart this week with a simple message:
“Crude Oil. Whatever happens on the Monday open is irrelevant on the longer-term roadmaps. The pathway for higher prices for crude oil has been laid out by silver & gold.”
The chart compares decades of price action between crude oil and silver. One line tracks oil. The other tracks silver. The message is visual and blunt: major structural moves in silver tend to precede or align with large directional changes in oil.
This is about multi-year structure.
What the Long-Term Chart Is Showing
The chart stretches back to the 1970s. Across multiple cycles (inflation spikes, recessions, commodity booms, and crashes) oil and silver move in broad alignment during major macro phases.
When precious metals enter structural uptrends, oil often follows.
Right now, silver has already broken into a powerful bull phase. After consolidating for years, it exploded higher, printed new highs, corrected sharply, and is now rebuilding structure near key resistance. The longer-term pattern shows higher highs and higher lows across the macro timeframe.
Oil, by contrast, has been compressing.
On Karim’s chart, crude appears to be forming a large multi-year consolidation with a descending trendline capping recent rallies. Price has pulled back from prior highs but has not broken down structurally. It looks coiled.
There’s also a curved projection sketched on the right side of the chart. That projection mirrors silver’s prior breakout path and implies that oil could follow a similar expansion phase once resistance gives way.
The implication is clear: metals have already signaled the inflationary pressure. Oil may simply be lagging.
Read also: ChatGPT Predicts the Price of Silver and Gold If the U.S.–Iran War Escalates Further
Why Silver and Gold Could Be Leading
Precious metals tend to respond first to monetary instability, currency debasement fears, and geopolitical stress. They move when capital seeks protection.
Energy often reacts later, when inflation pressure feeds directly into supply chains and real-economy pricing.
Silver’s breakout above long-standing resistance indicates that liquidity conditions and inflation expectations are shifting. Gold has also remained structurally strong despite volatility in equities and crypto.
If metals are in the early phase of a broader commodity cycle, oil would not stay suppressed for long.
Karim’s point about the Monday open being irrelevant speaks to this idea. Short-term gaps driven by headlines do not change multi-year trend structure. Weekly and monthly charts define the real roadmap.
As long as crude oil holds its long-term support zones and continues compressing beneath that descending resistance, the setup resembles a classic coil before expansion.
A decisive breakout above that multi-year trendline would likely trigger momentum flows and repositioning across commodity markets.
If silver continues higher, Karim’s thesis indicates oil will not remain behind for long.
Read also: Strait of Hormuz Freeze: Oil Tankers Turn Back as War Risk Insurance Vanishes Overnight
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