Gold is giving back part of this week’s powerful rebound, but Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen does not yet see the move as the beginning of another major decline.
Spot gold is trading around $4,060-$4,080 per ounce today after reaching roughly $4,146 on Thursday. Despite the pullback, gold remains up about 5% for the week, which puts it on track for its strongest weekly performance in more than two months.
Hansen describes the latest weakness as consolidation following an aggressive short-covering rally.
In other words, traders who had bet against gold were forced to buy back positions as prices moved higher, accelerating the rebound. Now that some of that forced buying has passed, profit-taking is starting to appear.
What you'll learn 👉
Oil Rebound Is Taking Some Support Away From Gold
One factor behind the pause is oil.
Falling crude prices helped gold earlier this week because cheaper energy reduces inflation pressure and gives the Federal Reserve less reason to keep monetary policy restrictive.
That dynamic has partially reversed.
Brent crude rebounded toward $100 per barrel today after its steep weekly decline. Higher energy prices can revive inflation concerns, which may push bond yields and rate expectations higher and make non-yielding assets such as gold less attractive.
#Gold consolidates following strong short-covering rally: The pullback yesterday and during Asian trading today appears driven by broader risk aversion and profit-taking after CTAs and hedge funds completed an initial round of aggressive short covering. A rebound in oil prices, whose earlier slump helped trigger the rally, has added to the consolidation pressure. So far, the setback remains relatively shallow when measured against key Fibonacci retracement levels, and as long as gold holds above USD 3,975, we view the weakness as a correction following a strong rally rather than the start of a renewed downtrend. In the very short term, developments in US equities and, not least, President Trump’s next moves regarding Iran remain the key drivers to watch. Meanwhile, lower Treasury yields and fading expectations of a December Fed rate hike continue to provide underlying support, partly offsetting renewed dollar strength.
— Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) November 6, 2026
Hansen specifically points to the oil rebound as one reason gold has struggled to extend the rally.
$3,975 Is Hansen’s Key Gold Level
The more important part of Hansen’s take is his technical line in the sand.
He argues that as long as gold remains above roughly $3,975, the decline can still be treated as a correction inside the latest recovery.
That level matters because the pullback has so far remained relatively shallow when measured against Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent rally.
Gold is currently still comfortably above it.
From around $4,070, gold would need to fall roughly another 2.3% to reach $3,975.
A decisive break below that area would make the recent recovery look less secure and raise the possibility that the October weakness is returning.
Read also: Robert Kiyosaki Wants Another Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Crash – Here’s Why
Lower Yields Still Give Gold Support
There are also forces working in gold’s favor.
Treasury yields have eased from recent highs, and expectations for another December Federal Reserve rate increase have cooled somewhat.
Reuters reported that markets now assign roughly a 64% probability to another December hike, lower than earlier in the week.
Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.
That provides an important cushion even as the U.S. dollar strengthens again and oil rebounds.
The next big macro test is the U.S. payrolls report. A weaker jobs number could push rate expectations lower and give gold another boost. A strong report could do the opposite.
What Happens Next for Gold Price?
The near-term setup now looks much less dramatic than the explosive rally earlier this week.
Gold first needs to stabilize around the $4,050-$4,075 region.
Above that, the recent high near $4,146 becomes the first meaningful resistance. A break through that area would reopen the path toward roughly $4,200-$4,215.
On the downside, Hansen’s $3,975 level is the one that matters most.
For now, gold is pulling back, but the structure has not broken.
After a 5% weekly rally fueled by short covering, lower yields and a softer dollar, some profit-taking was always likely.
The real signal will come if sellers can push gold below $3,975. Until then, Hansen’s interpretation of the move as consolidation still holds up.
For more financial news and price predictions, click here.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for daily crypto updates, market insights, and expert analysis.
