Every now and then, Ripple’s XRP holders like to imagine the “what if” future, especially when it comes to big price targets.
TheCryptoBasic explored one of the wildest versions of that idea: what would happen if XRP total value grew large enough to match the U.S. M1 money supply?
Before the math, here’s the setup. M1 represents all U.S. physical cash, checking deposits, and other highly liquid money, basically the spendable money in the economy. As of January 2025, that number sat at about $18.46 trillion. It’s massive.
Meanwhile, the XRP price trades around $1.91, giving it a market cap of about $115 billion based on its 60 billion circulating supply.
So we’re talking two completely different scales. But since XRP markets itself as a global payments asset, some analysts like to imagine what the extreme adoption scenario could look like.
If Ripple’s XRP ever grew big enough to match the entire M1 money supply, two price paths emerge, depending on which supply number you use.
The first version uses XRP’s total supply, roughly 99.98 billion tokens.In that scenario, XRP would trade around $184 each. So a stack of 5,000 XRP- which costs roughly $10,000 today – could suddenly be worth about $920,000.
And the wild part? Hundreds of thousands of wallets actually hold between 1,000 and 5,000 XRP, so this isn’t just a “rich whales only” fantasy.
Many analysts believe XRP could one day command a valuation far beyond its current price, especially if its role in global payments continues to strengthen.
— TheCryptoBasic (@thecryptobasic) November 24, 2025
Among the bold scenarios often discussed is what would happen if XRP’s market value expanded to match one of the largest…
But the second version is even bigger. If the calculation uses just XRP current circulating supply, around 60 billion tokens, the price jumps to about $307 per XRP. Now that same 5,000 XRP becomes worth about $1.53 million.
That’s more than a 15,800% increase from today. And more than 176,000 wallets hold between 5,000 and 10,000 XRP, so a lot of everyday holders would suddenly qualify as millionaires.
But remember – this is all theoretical. For XRP to ever reach money-supply levels, it would need global adoption, clear regulations, deep liquidity, and huge institutional trust. It also doesn’t account for selling pressure, market cycles, or competition along the way.
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Even analysts disagree on long-term possibilities. Changelly sees the XRP price potentially hitting $184–$307 by 2040. Telegaon takes a more cautious stance, expecting a $128 peak in 2050. Others believe XRP could still grow, but not anywhere near the $300 range, at least not with the current supply.
The takeaway? It’s fun to run the numbers, and it shows why some Ripple XRP holders are so optimistic. But reaching U.S. money-supply levels would require a financial transformation far beyond normal crypto growth.
For now, the $1.53 million outcome stays in the “cool to imagine, not guaranteed” category, but it definitely sparks conversation.
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