Imagine checking your portfolio in December and seeing XRP trading at double digits for the first time in years. Sounds bold, right? At the moment, XRP trades around $2.8, yet some analysts argue a run toward the $10–$16 range is not impossible.
According to TheCryptoBasic on X, the big “if” centers on one major decision: whether the SEC approves all pending spot XRP ETFs by October.
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Why Spot ETFs Could Change Ripple Price Story
TheCryptoBasic cited Bloomberg, which reported that more than a dozen XRP ETF filings are sitting on the SEC’s desk. Seven of those are spot ETFs, with deadlines falling in October, creating a pivotal moment for Ripple and its investors.
Spot ETFs differ from futures or leveraged funds because they require issuers to actually buy XRP to back shares. That creates direct demand, which could send the XRP price higher if approval arrives.
A similar dynamic helped Bitcoin climb when its spot ETFs launched earlier in 2024. Supporters see XRP walking the same path, though timing and scale remain uncertain.
What We Can Learn From Teucrium’s XRP Fund
While spot products wait for approval, Teucrium’s leveraged XXRP ETF has already made headlines. Within 3 months, it became the firm’s best-performing fund in its 16-year history. The product even crossed $300 million in inflows, setting a record as the first U.S. XRP ETF to hit that mark.
TheCryptoBasic noted this success as a preview of what spot ETFs might unleash. If a leveraged fund can generate that kind of demand, the impact of spot products could be far greater, especially as institutions look for more straightforward exposure.
XRP has also been building momentum on the derivatives side. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, XRP futures became the fastest product ever to reach $1 billion in open interest, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. This signals that big players are already comfortable trading Ripple in regulated markets.
Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, one of the firms seeking to launch an XRP ETF, suggested that spot ETFs could draw up to $5 billion in inflows within their first month. He even argued that XRP might outperform Ethereum ETFs in early adoption. If that happens, ripple effect could be dramatic, with strong buying pressure driving the XRP price higher.
Could XRP Really Hit $10–$16?
TheCryptoBasic also noted an interesting perspective from Google’s Gemini AI, which modeled a bullish scenario. If all spot ETFs receive approval by October, institutional investors like pension funds and hedge funds would gain an easy, regulated entry into XRP.
To assess this, we asked Google Gemini AI to imagine a bullish outcome for XRP if all spot ETFs secure approval by October 2025. In response, Gemini explained that such a scenario could serve as a turning point for XRP.
— TheCryptoBasic (@thecryptobasic) September 3, 2025
Specifically, spot ETFs would give pension funds, hedge… pic.twitter.com/6sDwQILIPF
To back their ETFs, issuers would need to buy large amounts of XRP, creating direct market demand.Gemini’s projection placed XRP somewhere between $10 and $16 by December 2025.
At the low end, that would give Ripple a market cap above $500 billion. At the high end, it would mirror parabolic runs seen in past crypto bull markets. Still, Gemini emphasized that outside forces like global market shifts and broader crypto sentiment could reshape the outcome.
The next few months may decide whether XRP remains a single-digit token or breaks into double digits. The spotlight is on the SEC and the October ETF deadlines. If approvals arrive, XRP could attract both institutional capital and retail excitement. If not, the journey may stretch further into the future.
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